VZCZCXRO1602
PP RUEHLN RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0029/01 0061155
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 061155Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1109
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0374
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 2416

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000029 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TI
SUBJECT: TAJIK ELECTIONS:  LE GRAND BLEU:  KABIRI'S PRAGMATIC 
OPPOSITION 
 
REF: A) 09 DUSHANBE 1335 B) 09 DUSHANBE 1458 
 
DUSHANBE 00000029  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Muhiddin Kabiri, Chair of the Islamic 
Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), expressed pessimism that 
the Tajik government would follow through on President Rahmon's 
repeated promises to run a free and fair February 28 
parliamentary election, during a meeting with Ambassador Gross. 
Kabiri defended the IRPT's classification as an "opposition" 
party, though he conceded that the party did not directly 
challenge the President since opposition leaders who did were 
killed, imprisoned, or forced to leave the country.  The IRPT is 
running an ambitious, but pragmatic election campaign with an 
eye on expanding its base among the country's dissatisfied youth 
who yearn for a better life.  END SUMMARY 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU)In a meeting with Ambassador Gross at IRPT Headquarters 
on January 5, Chairman Kabiri predicted that the February 28 
elections to the lower house of parliament (Majlisi 
Namoyandagon) "will be the same this year as in 2005," when the 
government was accused of widespread fraud to win seats for the 
ruling People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan (PDPT).  Kabiri 
estimated that the IRPT, which has two seats in the current 
parliament, would win 10 seats in a free and fair poll.  "We 
could get more or less, but only the President could give the 
answer to that question."  Though Rahmon had pledged to be "the 
guarantor" of fair elections, Kabiri said "we should not be very 
trusting since there is no criminal penalty for not implementing 
the president's promise." 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Kabiri said the party is "trying to use new methods in 
its campaign," such as introducing a party color, light blue, to 
identify supporters.  To avoid accusations that the party was 
trying to stage a color revolution, "we looked through all of 
the past colored revolutions and made sure to choose an 
inoffensive color that was never used.  There has never been a 
revolution using light blue."  To compensate for the IRPT's 
limited access to state media, the party is working with the 
independent press and expanding its use of electronic media.  To 
avoid splitting the vote between opposition candidates, the IRPT 
would support like-minded, non-IRPT candidates who were better 
positioned to win a seat.  The IRPT would back the Social 
Democratic Party's candidate running in Gorno Badakhshan 
Autonomous Oblast and is negotiating with prominent independent 
political figures, such as Former Presidential Adviser Ibrahim 
Osmonov, who are considering running in individual mandate 
races. 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) The IRPT has an ambitious long-term strategy beyond the 
February polls.  Its 2009-2015 development plan aims for an 
increase in party membership from 33,000 to 150,000 members.  To 
expand IRPT ranks, Kabiri wants to "link the party's future to 
the younger generation" whose defining life experience was not 
the civil war.  "My university students call on us to take more 
concrete actions.  They want a brighter future and, for them, 
war is not a problem.  The older generation is calling on us to 
be more cautious."  The IRPT has founded student groups in 
Universities and high schools and is producing electronic 
informational materials. 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Kabiri said the party believes "the international 
community is not able to make any difference" in its efforts to 
support free and fair elections.  "We used to ask the 
international community to do this or that.  To a degree they 
did everything that we asked, but this did not make an impact on 
the election outcome."  Despite Kabiri's belief that the Tajik 
government is "immune to criticism" by the international 
community (Reftel A), he is "highly appreciative" of USG efforts 
to raise human rights and religious freedom issues with the 
Tajik government.  He called the government a "totalitarian 
state which uses all resources for its own benefit." 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Kabiri defended his party's reputation as an 
"opposition party" and said that his party had to make difficult 
choices to operate in the Tajik political environment, where 
"oppositionists are murdered, dismissed, or something else 
happens to them."  He conceded that those who say the IRPT is 
not a real opposition party "are perhaps right to an extent.  We 
do not oppose the person of the President.  The main reason for 
our continued existence is that we do not claim the presidential 
post."  Kabiri justified his party's overtures to the 
government, such as not running a presidential candidate in 
 
DUSHANBE 00000029  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
2006, as the price to be paid for the party to survive.  He 
concluded that few American politicians could survive in the 
Tajik political environment as vocal political oppositionists. 
"How many would be willing to be opposition leaders in Central 
Asia if they knew they could be persecuted or killed?" 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT:  On the edge of the Tajik political landscape 
there lies a graveyard of broken political parties and destroyed 
opposition leaders.  By regularly kowtowing to the President, 
supporting the Roghun fundraising drive, abstaining from the 
2006 Presidential election, and removing objectionable 
candidates from its 2010 party list, the IRPT has avoided this 
fate.  Nevertheless, it has remained an active, organized 
political force and is poised to expand its influence among the 
country's increasingly religious and dissatisfied youth.  At 42, 
Kabiri has time to wait for these young Tajiks, unscarred by the 
civil war, to emerge as a political force for the IRPT to 
recruit.  In the short term, he will be content with a small 
gain in the IRPT's representation in the Majlisi Namoyandagon 
and will avoid saying anything that will draw government 
opposition ahead of the February 28 elections.  END COMMENT 
GROSS