VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHCP #0011/01 0070839
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 070839Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5397

UNCLAS COPENHAGEN 000011 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/NB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV DA
SUBJECT:   POLITICAL ROUNDUP 
 
REF:  09 COPENHAGEN 539 
 
(U)  SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED--NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  As Danes return from the Christmas/New Year 
holidays, reactions to the Prime Minister's New Year address range 
from lukewarm to mocking, depending on the political leaning of the 
commentator.  The pundits' chief preoccupation is increasingly to 
speculate about the cabinet reshuffle that is widely expected before 
long.  END SUMMARY. 
 
DANISH POLITICS RETURNING TO NORMAL 
----------------------------------- 
 
2.(SBU) Following the dramatic and exhausting COP-15 and the 
Christmas/New Year holidays, Danish politics is returning to normal. 
 A still tired-looking PM Rasmussen turned his attention to the 
domestic audience with a series of TV interviews, admitting that the 
COP-15 outcome could have been better and that the "artistic 
impression" of the performance's final hours was not impressive, 
while insisting that the Danish Government could not be blamed for 
the outcome.  These interviews were followed by more informal 
appearances, accompanied by wife Solrun on both national TV 
networks' 2009-in-Review shows. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Pia Kjaersgaard, leader of the Danish People's Party (DPP), 
whose support is indispensable to the ruling coalition, used a 
December 30 interview in the daily Berlingske Tidende to urge the PM 
to focus on the domestic political scene and use his (customary) New 
Year's address to outline the Government's direction and "show the 
Danes who he is. "  She also stressed the need for a cabinet 
reshuffle. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Several commentators also raised expectations for the PM's 
New Year address.  Several surveys presented on the front pages 
December 31 also highlighted the need for a sharper profile for the 
PM and the Government:  a Gallup cabinet rating in Berlingske showed 
the PM's personal approval rating up from 44% a year ago to 56%, but 
twelve of the other 18 cabinet members fell in the ratings, 
especially Deputy PM and Conservative leader Lene Espersen (down 
from 66 to 51).  Equally serious, a Jyllands-Posten 
"Ramboell/Analyse Danmark" survey indicated that less than a third 
of the voters find that the PM has laid out a "clear political 
vision, " and almost one fourth expressed no opinion.  Even fewer 
perceive shadow PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt as having a clear 
political vision.  Thorning-Schmidt (leader of the largest 
opposition party, the SDP) has been notably absent from the 
end-of-year political debate.  Her husband (son of Lord Kinnock, 
former leader of the British Labour Party) celebrated his 40th 
birthday January 1, and that may have been a distraction for her. 
 
LOW-KEY NEW YEAR ADDRESSES 
-------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Queen Margrethe II's New Year's Eve address is a cherished 
tradition; nearly all Danes stop what they are doing and 
watch/listen.  It is supposed to be devoid of political content, but 
in past years it has contained moral or ethical signals.  Not so 
this year - a reminder that her speech is inspired and vetted by the 
PM's Office.  The Queen stressed that the new economic situation 
makes it even more important that we appreciate and assist Denmark's 
youth, but also warned against excessive "youth fixation" among the 
older generations, and more respect and appreciation for the 
experience and wisdom that come with age.  Most controversial was 
the Queen's appreciation for all involved in making COP-15 possible, 
especially her praise for the police for handling security 
"responsibly and in the best possible way. "   Several commentators 
found it curious that the Queen offered no mention of last June's 
referendum giving full gender equality for heirs to the throne. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The Prime Minister's customary New Year's evening speech 
generally has a sizeable audience, and this was Lars Loekke 
Rasmussen's first.  With many pundits and politicians having raised 
expectations for the speech, it disappointed those expecting a new 
vision and specific political initiatives.  Rasmussen decided to 
play it safe, using his warmer and more personable approach on 
camera to inspire trust and confidence that the country is in safe 
hands with him at the helm.  The PM referred to the dying decade as 
the "zeroes" which brought unprecedentedly high employment in 
mid-2008, but now a serious downturn.  He said the worst appears to 
be over, and affirmed that the Government is in control of the 
situation.  The tax cuts introduced in 2009 take effect this year 
and will put more money in consumers' pockets.  Turning briefly to 
the international agenda, he paid special tribute to the Danish 
troops in Afghanistan.  On COP-15, he stressed that it had succeeded 
- "during some hectic and not especially stylish final hours" - in 
reaching "a climate understanding. " 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Returning to the domestic agenda, the PM argued for a 
free, equal, just, respectful, tolerant and safe Denmark, which both 
offers opportunities and security for those in need.  "The Danish 
dream unites us," the PM asserted, emphasizing the importance of the 
Government's "Growth Forum" which starts working this month.  His 
core message was that Denmark's principal resources are human beings 
and knowledge, therefore it is important to continue strengthening 
the public elementary school system.  Finally, he stressed that to 
meet the challenges of the future, Denmark welcomes the contribution 
of immigrants:  "In just one generation, half a million Danes will 
have a non-Western background.  We need each and every one of you. 
" 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The only policy area given specific attention in the 
address was the public elementary school, just one of the PM's ten 
goals for 2020 put forward at his party convention in November 
(reftel). 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Reports late January 1 of a foiled attack on "Muhammad 
cartoonist" Kurt Westergaard distracted much of the attention 
usually given the PM's New Year's address.  Several newspapers 
pointed to the contrast between the PM's speech and Conservative 
leader/Deputy PM Espersen's appeal for extensive economic reforms 
(in her New Year message on the party's home page).  DPP leader 
Kjaersgaard offered this take on the speech:  "I'm overall 
positively surprised. There is some vision in it, and considering 
the limited time available, he addresses important issues like 
cancer treatment, gang crime and the public elementary school. " 
However, she did not appreciate the PM's welcoming message to Danes 
from non-Western backgrounds.  These two reactions illustrate the 
PM's dilemma:  his Conservative coalition partners want reform while 
the support party DPP does not, except when it comes to tightening 
immigration laws. 
 
OPPOSITION REACTS AS EXPECTED 
----------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Reactions from the opposition were predictable, with 
Socialist People's Party leader Villy Soevndal the most prominent 
critic. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Villy Soevndal was piqued by the PM's "rosy picture" of 
COP15:  "I'm not aware of anybody else, either nationally or 
internationally, who agrees with Lars Loekke Rasmussen's assessment. 
"  His assessment of the speech in general: "It's surprising that 
the PM has so little to offer.  I had expected he would take the 
opportunity to set a new agenda and share his vision for Denmark's 
future.  The only surprise is that he talks about greed growing out 
of proportion - and that is impressive - on the day when enormous 
tax cuts for the richest take effect. "  Soevndal further 
contributed to the New Year political debate with an extensive 
Berlingske op-ed headlined "The Government Deceives the Danish 
Values, " arguing that the Danish welfare society's values are being 
eroded and the Government is responsible for declining solidarity 
and growing inequality causing divisions. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Representing the leading opposition party SDP, Vice Chair 
Nick Haekkerup commented:  "It's a speech that probably fits well 
with how most Danes feel on January 1:  without energy, initiative 
or zest.  The PM leally missed the chance to profile himself, and 
the speech is devoid of concrete content showing the Danes where he 
plans to take our society. " 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Margrethe Vestager, leader of the third opposition party, 
the Social Liberals, offered this assessment of the speech:  "It was 
a sympathetic and smart speech - but weak.  Many, many words of 
sympathy for the friendly society threatened from the outside.  It's 
clever - all problems come from the outside. "  She raised serious 
questions about the PM's plans for improving reading qualifications 
among the youngest in the public elementary schools. 
 
JANUARY AGENDA AND RESHUFFLE SPECULATION 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Except for the Climate Minister and the PM being summoned 
by the parliamentary opposition for consultations and follow-up on 
COP-15, the political agenda appears rather empty until the PM's 
late-January meetings to discuss the future of the Danish public 
elementary school.  But the left-wing opposition will almost 
certainly accuse the Government of implementing irresponsible tax 
cuts and not doing enough to address the growing public deficit and 
unemployment. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Undoubtedly the favorite preoccupation of political 
pundits will be speculation about the timing and extent of a cabinet 
reshuffle.  Taking as its starting point a Megafon poll conducted 
December 15-16 showing that 21% of voters want Justice Minister (and 
key Conservative Party figure) Brian Mikkelsen out of the 
Government, the daily Politiken Sunday offered an elaborate feature 
predicting an extensive reshuffle within the next few months.  Much 
speculation centered on whether Lene Espersen intends to move to the 
Foreign Ministry.  Politiken further predicted that the 
Conservatives would bring in new ministers from outside the 
parliament, while the PM's own Venstre (Liberal Party) would recruit 
from within the parliament.   The most likely ministers to lose 
their jobs, according to the newspaper, are Science and Technology 
Minister Helge Sander, Development Cooperation Minister Ulla 
Toernaes, Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Minister Eva Kjer Hansen, 
and Refugees, Immigration and Integration Minister Birthe Roenn 
Hornbech, who also holds the Ecclesiastical Affairs portfolio.  We 
can expect many more speculations until the reshuffle actually 
happens. 
 
MCCULLEY