VZCZCXRO4341
RR RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHBJ #0035/01 0102316
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 102316Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7538
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 BEIJING 000035 
 
STATE FOR PRM/POP 
STATE ALSO FOR DRL/PHD, IO/D, DRL, EAP/PD, AND EAP/CM 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPOP SOCI PHUM KPAO KWMN TBIO CH
SUBJECT:  CHINA'S ATTEMPTS TO ADDRESS GENDER IMBALANCE PROBLEM 
 
REF: A) BEIJING 0017 B) 08 BEIJING 2808 C) 08 BEIJING 2795 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Abnormally high sex ratio at birth (SRB) and 
excess female child mortality both contribute directly to the sex 
ratio imbalance in China.  Social consequences of this imbalance 
include an estimated excess of over 30 million unmarriageable males, 
a potentially destabilizing force that threatens to cause unrest in 
the most economically marginalized areas, and could lead to 
increased gender violence through demand for prostitution and 
trafficking in girls and women.  While there is general agreement on 
sex-selective abortions and post-natal discrimination as the leading 
causes of China's abnormally high sex ratio imbalance, these actions 
are motivated by the interaction of a strong cultural preference and 
pressure for sons with China's strict birth limitation policy. 
 
¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY CONTINUED:  While the government has made reducing 
the gender imbalance an urgent priority, sources indicate that the 
long term deadlines set for normalizing the sex ratio may be further 
delayed.  Controlling prenatal sex identification and sex-selective 
abortions has been a leading strategy in managing the sex ratio 
imbalance.  Since 2006, China has also broadened its efforts to 
include more comprehensive and coordinated approaches to better 
address the root causes of the problem.  However, government efforts 
to reduce the sex ratio imbalance have thus far steadfastly avoided 
any major changes to its birth limitation policy.  END SUMMARY. 
 
SOCIAL UNREST FROM SEX RATIO IMBALANCE 
----------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) The long term consequences of China's high sex ratio 
imbalance are worrisome to China's social planners.  The abnormally 
high sex ratio imbalance can lead to social problems that follow 
from a shortage of women to marry.  An April 2009 British Medical 
Journal study analyzing the sex ratio for China's population under 
the age of 20 found that there are over 32 million more males than 
females, triggering a series of stories in the domestic and 
international media about the problem of China's "bare branches," or 
young men who cannot find partners.  According to population 
experts, women will be able to marry up and out into wealthier and 
more urban areas, so the problem of excess males will be felt most 
acutely in the poorest and most marginal regions, possibly 
compounding other social and economic discontent.  Former Director 
of China Population and Development Research Center (CPDRC) MA Li 
told ESTHOffs that there is currently no strategy to deal with the 
"bare branches" phenomenon, but since the problem is "far off," the 
priority now is to reduce the sex ratio imbalance at birth. (NOTE: 
CPDRC is the main research arm of the National Population and Family 
Planning Commission (NPFPC) and assists the NPFPC in strategic 
planning feeding into their Five-Year Population Development Plans. 
Ma is also a long-standing Deputy in the National People's Congress 
(NPC) and a member of NPC's Education, Science, Culture and Health 
Committee. END NOTE) 
 
(SBU)  Gender equity advocates also speculate that the growing 
imbalance could lead to more serious gender discrimination and 
gender violence.  Increased demand for sex workers and shortage of 
women to marry could lead to more trafficking of girls and women for 
future brides or the sex industry. 
 
NO LONGER A "SECRET" PROBLEM 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Both government and non-governmental sources have noted the 
increasing willingness of the government to discuss the sex ratio 
problem openly.  In a November 30 meeting with the CPDRC, former 
Director MA Li described to ESTH officers the gradual opening up of 
the problem to public discourse.  According to Ma, after years of 
treating the sex ratio imbalance as a "secret" problem, the 
government publicly acknowledged the problem for the first time in 
2002 and made sex ratio data publicly available in 2004.  Especially 
since 2006, when the government made the gender imbalance problem a 
national priority, there has been a high level of domestic and 
international attention paid to and research conducted on the issue, 
including open discussion of previously sensitive subjects such as 
sex-selective abortion and the link to China's social policies. 
 
¶5. (SBU) In recent separate meetings with United Nations Population 
Fund (UNFPA) and United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), UNFPA's 
Deputy Representative Mariam Khan and UNICEF's Chief of Plans of 
Action and Promotion of Child Rights Lisa Ng Bow both characterized 
a growing readiness by the government to examine disaggregated data 
by gender as a major shift, on key indicators like infant and child 
mortality.  This is significant because these are indicators for 
which China is showing considerable progress overall, but when 
disaggregated by gender, show serious disadvantage to girls in child 
survival. (REF A) 
 
FAMILY PLANNING POLICY WORSENS GENDER BIAS 
-------------------- -------------------- 
 
BEIJING 00000035  002 OF 005 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Public discourse on the issue has resulted in increased 
scrutiny on the impact of China's social policies on its sex ratio. 
For example, Professor HU Yukun of Peking University's (PKU) 
Institute of Population Research was quick to point out to ESTHOffs 
in a November 20 meeting that although the official family planning 
policy has loosened somewhat in recent years to allow over half of 
families to have a second child if the first one is a girl (known as 
the one-and-a-half child policy), a fertility policy conditioned on 
the sex of the first child still caters to the cultural preference 
for sons and implies that sons and daughters are not equivalent.  Hu 
explained that the policy worsens the sex ratio imbalance because 
not only can families who bear sons not have another child, but many 
who have a girl first will likely use sex selection to ensure they 
have a boy next.  The policy also reinforces the social concept that 
girls are inferior to boys.  The April 2009 British Medical Journal 
study on the sex ratio of China's population under 20 years of age 
presented findings showing that one-and-a-half child policy areas 
have the highest overall sex ratios.  (NOTE:  According to China's 
national data, the SRB was 120.56 in 2008 (REF A), although the CIA 
World Factbook reports an estimated SRB of 110 for 2009, presenting 
a less severe picture of China's sex ratio imbalance at birth.  For 
other areas sharing a common cultural tradition of son preference, 
the CIA World Factbook estimates comparable SRB for 2009: 109 in 
Taiwan, 108 in Hong Kong, 107 in South Korea, and 107 in Vietnam. 
END NOTE) 
 
GOALS FOR NORMALIZING SEX IMBALANCE FURTHER DELAYED 
-------------------------- ------------------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) While China has made solving the sex ratio problem an 
increasingly urgent priority, the central government has struggled 
to meet its own goals for normalizing the sex ratio imbalance.  The 
current Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2006-2010) and Long Term Plans for 
2020 divided strategic gender imbalance goals into three 
stages--slowing the rate of increase of the sex ratio at birth by 
2010, reducing the imbalance by 2015, and normalizing the sex ratio 
at birth by 2020.  These goals are a revision of the original 
deadline announced by President HU Jintao at the 2004 National 
People's Congress, which set a goal of normalizing the SRB by 2010. 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) According to CPDRC's Ma, the government may soon be issuing 
further revisions in its timeline for normalizing the SRB.  Ma 
reported that details are still being vetted internally, but CPDRC's 
recommendation to the NPFPC will be to set a goal of reducing the 
SRB by three points by 2015 and normalizing the SRB by 2030. 
 
BIRTH LIMITATION POLICY WILL NOT CHANGE 
----------- ---------------------- ---- 
 
¶9. (SBU)  Despite the growing pressure to reduce the SRB, CPDRC's Ma 
emphatically declared that there will not be a change in the 
fundamentals of China's family planning policy and its commitment to 
maintaining a low total fertility rate for the long term.  Ma did 
not, however, dismiss outright the possibility of the birth 
limitation policy being loosened over time to a general two-child 
policy.  NPFPC's Care for Girls Leadership Committee has already 
included among its priorities the elimination of birth spacing 
restrictions, a key component of China's family planning policy, as 
one way to address the sex ratio imbalance. (REF C) 
 
FAILURE TO CRIMINALIZE PRENATAL SEX SELECTION 
---------------------- ---------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU)  According to Ma, because of China's commitment to its 
birth limitation policy, the government has concentrated its initial 
efforts on fighting the practice of sex selection.  Although she 
acknowledged that efforts to control the SRB by prohibiting the use 
of ultrasounds for fetal sex identification and sex-selective 
abortions have been ineffective and nearly impossible to implement 
(REF A), Ma also argued that for now, improving enforcement on these 
regulations is all the government can do in the short term.  She 
added that a lasting solution would not be possible without a 
comprehensive social security system and a transformation of 
cultural beliefs and customs "which will take years, if not 
generations" to achieve. 
 
¶11. (SBU)  NPFPC has been trying for years to criminalize illegal 
sex identification and sex-selective abortion (commonly referred to 
as the "Two Nons"), which currently are prohibited only under 
administrative law.  If successful, this would mean jail time for 
violators instead of simply fines and suspended licenses.  Ma noted 
that she has been working on the issue of legal reform related to 
sex-selective abortion since its inception and has herself proposed 
amendments to the Criminal Code to the National People's Congress 
(NPC) dealing with sex-selective abortion each year since 2006.  She 
explained, however, that attempts to criminalize the "Two Nons" are 
likely to continue to fail for two key reasons:  1) because many 
 
BEIJING 00000035  003 OF 005 
 
 
believe that even if successful, the burden of proof will be too 
difficult, rendering the law useless, and 2) because many NPC 
deputies disagree with the premise, believing that it is a woman or 
couple's right to choose whether or not to have a child, for 
whatever reason.  While Ma feels strongly that enforcing regulations 
against the "Two Nons" is the only means of reducing the SRB in the 
short term, she also questioned its urgency and speculated that if 
China eventually moves to a two-child policy, the prevalence of sex 
selective abortions likely would be less and the sex ratio imbalance 
less acute.  She added, however, that the public also could shift to 
using sex selection to ensure one boy and one girl in each family. 
 
NEW SOCIAL SUPPORTS TARGET ROOT CAUSES OF SON PREFRENCE 
--------------------------- --------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU)  In December 2006, the Central Committee of the Communist 
Party of China released a key "Decision on Fully Enhancing the 
Population and Family Planning Program and Comprehensively 
Addressing Population Issues (REF C)," which made "comprehensively 
addressing the abnormal sex ratio to avoid negative impacts on 
stability of society" a core population and family planning 
priority.  The "Decision" not only emphasized that sex 
identification of the fetus and non-medical sex-selective abortions 
are strictly forbidden and called for setting up systems to regulate 
access to these services and report offenses, it also broadened 
government efforts beyond regulatory controls, to include a more 
systemic approach for targeting the root causes of son preference 
and bias against girls.  Furthermore, SRB was listed for the first 
time in 2006 as an indicator in China's annual "Statistical 
Communique," allowing the government to track the problem on an 
annual basis. 
 
¶13. (SBU) The year 2006 also saw the beginning of several important 
national programs that addressed critical social welfare and 
security concerns across China.  The central government moved toward 
full exemption of all tuition and textbook fees and provided a 
subsidy for school boarding for compulsory education in western 
China, which was later expanded to all poor families nationwide in 
¶2007.  According to PKU's Professor HU, this was a "dramatic 
triumph" for girls' rights achieved through a social policy 
intervention that, almost overnight, removed the practical barriers 
to girls from low income families attending school. 
 
¶14. (SBU) China's broadest family planning subsidy currently is the 
Social Support Program (REF B).  Implemented nationally in 2006, it 
gives a monthly stipend to those who comply with family planning 
regulations and is seen as a key step in addressing rural old-age 
social security concerns, which has been a key factor driving the 
son preference.  Hu believes that adequately providing for old-age 
social security will over time reduce the reliance on sons for 
old-age support and soften the view that daughters are a liability. 
 
 
CARE FOR GIRLS CAMPAIGN 
----------------------- 
¶15.  (SBU)  In addition to these social policies that appear to have 
improved opportunities for girls, the government in 2006 expanded 
nationwide the Care for Girls campaign (initially piloted in 2003 in 
24 counties) which includes a range of policies ostensibly tailored 
to local conditions to counter gender imbalance.  These include 
allowing inheritance by females, strategies to crack down on the 
"Two Nons," preferential policies to help girls in families without 
a son, and advocacy and education to promote cultural change away 
from a preference for having sons.  Among other preferential 
policies such as education, medical, and employment benefits for 
girl-only families, some localities have extended the Social Support 
Program benefits to include even two-girl families under the Care 
for Girls Program, attempting to reinforce the value of girls in 
contributing to old age security.  A less conventional related 
strategy has been the promotion of matrilocal marriage, where the 
man marries into the woman's family. 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Another key component of the Care for Girls program has 
been the establishment of family planning and reproductive health 
services to follow women from pregnancy through postnatal check-ups. 
 The intent is to encourage better monitoring of pregnancies and 
births to improve survival rates, more accurate reporting of births 
and deaths, as well as careful regulation and registration of 
medicines and abortion services. 
 
¶17.  (SBU)  According to UNFPA's Khan, because money for social 
programs and services in different sectors is controlled at 
different levels of government and mostly funded locally, another 
important aspect of the campaign is improved leadership and 
coordination on resources across government departments.  To 
incentivize local leadership to provide more support for Care for 
Girls, some provinces have linked local officials' performance 
evaluations to improving the sex ratio. 
 
 
BEIJING 00000035  004 OF 005 
 
 
¶18. (SBU) Khan also noted that to date, there has been no 
comprehensive evaluation of the Care for Girls Program to determine 
its results or pinpoint effective strategies.  She explained that 
while UNFPA's gender advocacy strategy includes sex ratio at birth 
as a thematic focus, its programs are not directly part of Care for 
Girls.  UNFPA has, however, commissioned research focused on 
understanding the factors that reduce the sex ratio, including an 
ongoing study of seven provinces--Henan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, 
Sichuan, Chongqing and Hunan--that have shown some decline in SRB 
since 2007.  Khan anticipates that this study will be completed in 
¶2010. 
 
COORDINATION ACROSS ALL LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT 
-------------- -------------- -------------- 
 
¶19.  (SBU) In 2008, the NPFPC established a special coordinating 
office to deal with the sex ratio issue.  The NPCPC convened through 
this coordinating office two national conferences on Care for Girls 
(in November 2008 and August 2009) that have showcased provincial 
efforts in Care for Girls and attempted to motivate provinces to 
develop new plans and regulations for reducing the sex ratio 
imbalance. 
 
¶20. (SBU)  In preparation for the first National Conference on Care 
for Girls in Hainan province in November 2008, eleven provinces 
performed research studies on their efforts to manage the sex ratio 
imbalance.  The conference highlighted in particular the success of 
Hainan Province's comprehensive Management and Reporting Model. Five 
additional provinces--Henan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan--whose 
SRBs were among the top ten highest in 2005, were chosen to pilot 
Hainan's model in 2009. (NOTE:  Hainan Province had the third 
highest SRB in 2000 and showed the second greatest reduction in SRB 
of any province from 2000 to 2005, when it dropped to tenth. END 
NOTE) 
 
¶21. (SBU) Key characteristics of Hainan's Management and Reporting 
Model include increasing coordinated data collection and management 
systems to monitor birth and death registrations and data sharing 
across the health, public security, and education bureaus to prevent 
concealment, omission, and misreporting.  "Whole course" 
reproductive health service management is stressed, such as 
promoting hospital delivery through incentives to mid-wives and 
monitoring throughout the pregnancy, child birth, and post-natal 
period.  Enhanced coordination across public security, family 
planning, health, and food and drug safety bureaus was shown to be 
necessary for effectively investigating violations of the "Two Nons" 
and deaths of baby girls that were not from natural causes. 
 
¶22. (SBU)  In addition to the Hainan model, in August 2009 at the 
Second National Care for Girls Conference, NPFPC Minister LI Bin 
also cited as models Jiangsu and Hebei Provinces, which had both 
established a data sharing mechanism between their education and 
statistical bureaus in order to gain a clearer picture of the gender 
imbalance situation.  Minister Li also emphasized needing more 
strategies to investigate and prosecute violations of the "Two 
Nons." 
 
¶23. (SBU) Since the 2008 and 2009 conferences and the national 
scrutiny of the gender ratio imbalance, numerous provinces have 
revised their regulations to increase coordination, broaden efforts, 
and strengthen regulatory controls.  In December 2008, Fujian and 
Henan Provinces issued new regulations, with Fujian emphasizing 
combating violations of the "Two Nons" through linking the family 
planning, public security, health, and food and drug safety 
departments, tightening controls on abortions after 14 weeks (after 
which fetal sex identification is possible), improving registration 
of births and deaths, and establishing a public reporting mechanism 
for violations, including a 2,000RMB (USD 294) reward to informants 
beginning in November 2009.  Henan announced a six-month pilot 
campaign beginning in March 2009 against the "Two Nons", and cited 
specific administrative consequences for public officials who are 
found to have "failed to implement policies to control SRB." 
 
¶24. (SBU) Between July and November 2009, Gansu and Jiangxi 
Provinces, and the cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen also announced 
changes to their Care for Girls strategies.  Shanghai and Gansu 
emphasized preferential policies to foster development of girls and 
assistance to girl-only households.  Shanghai announced on July 10 a 
new plan to improve the care and protection of girl children, 
including assistance in the form of medical, education and 
employment benefits to families with only daughters.  In Gansu's 
Changning County, rural families with one girl can apply for a 
4,000RMB (USD 588) one time award, a 1,600RMB (USD 235) contribution 
to their pension savings, and a 20RMB monthly health care stipend. 
Two daughter families who initiate sterilization or some other 
long-term contraceptive method can receive a 3,000RMB (USD 441) 
award from the county government and another 3,000RMB award from the 
province, plus an 800RMB (USD 118) contribution to their pension 
savings.  Shanghai also proposed inter-province cooperation to 
 
BEIJING 00000035  005 OF 005 
 
 
address the needs of its migrant population.  Jiangxi's new 
provincial plan to manage SRB reflects the Hainan model and 
emphasizes improved family planning service delivery, a data 
campaign that includes a better birth registration system, and a 
rewards system for identifying violators of the "Two Nons."  Press 
reports in November 2009 profiled Guangming District in Shenzhen, 
which as part of their 2009-2010 Care for Girls campaign established 
a 2,000RMB (USD 294) reward for information on violators of the "Two 
Nons," set up telephone hotlines, neighborhood mailboxes, and an 
online reporting system to "mobilize the masses to provide clues," 
and stepped up investigations of practices at private hospitals and 
clinics.  Since the start of this campaign, the district is reported 
to have closed three unlicensed clinics and investigated five 
pharmacies for illegal sale of medicine for inducing abortions. 
 
MIGRANT POPULATION LESS CLEAR 
------------- --------------- 
 
¶25. (SBU) To date there has been no systematic study of gender 
imbalance in the migrant population.  However, a February 2008 
family planning conference in Shanghai reported gender ratio data 
that showed differences by residency status.  In 2007, the sex ratio 
at birth for residents with a Shanghai household registration 
(hukou) was close to normal at 107.8, while for permanent residents 
it was 115. (NOTE: The "permanent resident" category officially 
includes both those with a Shanghai household registration and those 
who are documented to have lived in Shanghai for longer than six 
months.  END NOTE) The sex ratio at birth for the migrant population 
temporarily in Shanghai, at 123, was much higher.  However, just as 
family planning officials have had difficulty monitoring compliance 
of migrants with family planning policies and requirements (REF B), 
capturing an accurate picture of and managing the sex ratio 
imbalance among the migrant population pose similar challenges. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶26. (SBU) COMMENT:  China has in recent years demonstrated greater 
openness in discussing the nature and causes of its sex ratio 
imbalance, and increased urgency about addressing the problem.  Some 
local governments have had some success in managing the problem, 
including through providing financial incentives to girl-only 
families and improving social policy supports to target the root 
causes of the son preference.  Furthermore, although China has made 
noteworthy progress in reducing infant and child mortality and has 
already met its Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for these 
indicators ahead of schedule, the government has of late delayed 
goals for normalizing the gender imbalance, perhaps in recognition 
that it currently lacks effective short term measures to quickly 
reduce the sex ratio at birth.  China has acknowledged that removing 
barriers to gender equity and promoting the value of girls, as well 
as building an adequate old-age social security, are key to 
achieving a widespread, lasting solution.  Beyond its continued 
rhetoric, however, the central government also must provide the 
resources necessary for provinces to fulfill their mandates for 
delivering services geared toward the care, protection, and 
promotion of girls.  Local commitment and follow through also must 
be strengthened and officials held accountable for humanely reducing 
the sex ratio imbalance.  END COMMENT. 
 
HUNTSMAN