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RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0032/01 0200721
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 200721Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3236
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000032 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E MARIA BEYZEROV 
DEPT PASS TO USAID/AFR/EA ASHLEY MARCUS 
DOC FOR RTELCHIN 
TREASURY FOR FRANCOIS BOYE 
PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN 
LONDON FOR PETER LORD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EINV MA
SUBJECT: ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON UPDATE 
 
REF: A) 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: This is U.S. Embassy Antananarivo's Update for 
January 4 to 20, a periodic unclassified review of major political, 
economic, and commercial events and information from the U.S. 
Mission to Madagascar and the Comoros. 
 
POLITICS (Paragraphs 2-4) 
-Crack Down Against the Opposition 
-State Council's Independence Jeopardized 
-The Ecclesiastic's Movement is Born 
 
ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL (Paragraphs 5-12) 
-Unrealistic Budget Law Passed by Ordinance 
-New Oil Code on Horizon 
-Precious Wood Destruction is Authorized 
-Mining Exploitation 
-Regional Environment Officers' Visit 
-French Ambassador Speaks at AMCHAM on Franco-Malagasy Relations 
 
COMOROS (Paragraphs 13-15) 
-Comoran Teachers on Strike 
-Former President Azali Opposes Extension for Sambi 
-Sarkozy Visits the Indian Ocean 
 
END SUMMARY 
 
-------- 
POLITICS 
-------- 
¶2. (SBU) CRACK DOWN AGAINST THE OPPOSITION:  The de facto 
authorities ramped up their repression tactics against the 
opposition in late December and early January.  On December 22, 
attempts by the opposition to install one hundred members of the 
transition congress, outlined by the Maputo Accords, were rebuffed 
by security forces that used tear gas to disperse the crowds.  In 
early January, the director and a journalist of Radio Fahazavana, a 
station sympathetic to Ravalomanana, were arrested and continue to 
be held.  Despite hopes that political detainee Ralitera 
Andrianandraina, who has been held for nine months already, would be 
released on January 6 when his retaining order expired, a new order 
was issued for another six months on January 6, 2010.  In 
mid-January, an arrest warrant was issued against co-president and 
leader of the Ravalomanana movement, Fetison Rakoto Andrianirina, 
who has denied having received any summons.  Aside from isolated 
skirmishes with police, Tana is generally calm as the various 
political movements and actors await the visit of AU Commission 
President Jean Ping later this week. 
 
¶3. (SBU) THE STATE COUNCIL'S INDEPENDENCE JEOPARDIZED: One day 
before Qe State Council - the branch of the supreme court with 
jurisdiction over administrative actions - was to announce its 
decision regarding the legality of the HAT's move to annul the 
decree that had nominated the consensus Prime Minister Eugene 
Mangalaza, the de facto government issued a tailored ordinance 
forbidding its nomination decisions to be questioned; another 
measure considered as a political maneuver to reinforce its 
unilateral power.  As a result, the state council decision has been 
postponed for a second time.  Although the nomination decree of the 
de facto Prime Minister Camille Vital should have been suspended as 
soon as the State Council received the request to review Mangalaza's 
dismissal, Colonel Vital has continued to fill the role of prime 
minister.  The high constitutional council (HCC) has remained silent 
about the constitutionality of this new HAT ordinance.  Reportedly, 
the HAT threatened the State Council with being abolished if they 
insisted on issuing their opinion on the legality of Mangalaza's 
dismissal. 
 
¶4. (SBU) THE "ECCLESIASTICS' MOVEMENT" IS BORN: A group of around 
thirty preachers, mainly composed of and led by Protestant FJKM 
Pastors, has since late December organized religious meetings to 
denounce the state monopoly on public media; to demand the cessation 
of censorship of news and a call-in program on FJKM's Radio 
Fahazavana; to demand the immediate release of two Radio Fahazavana 
journalists detained for suspected complicity in a mutiny; and also 
to call for the neutrality of the army and the justice system.  With 
the presence of some TIM leaders, and despite a press conference 
denying its political "affiliation", this group has been considered 
by the some in the media as another political tool used by former 
President Ravalomanana - formerly Vice-President of the FJKM - to 
oppose the current regime and to reinforce the actions to be taken 
 
ANTANANARI 00000032  002 OF 003 
 
 
by the three opposition political entities, now joined together in 
the "Madagascar Movement".  The group has addressed a written appeal 
to embassies in 'Tana, including the U.S., regarding the recent 
crackdown against press freedom. 
 
----------------------- 
ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL 
----------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) UNREALISTIC BUDGET LAW:  The 2010 budget law was passed by 
presidential ordinance on December 31 and approved by the high 
constitutional court in early January.  The finance ministry is 
still in the process of editing it and correcting errors.  The 
normal legislative procedure was not followed due to the dissolution 
of the parliament in 2009 by the de facto authorities.  The budget 
projects the receipt of over USD 500 million in foreign aid, 
equivalent to approximately one-third of the total budget or 70 
percent of the public investment budget.  Given the ongoing 
political stalemate, this funding is unlikely to materialize. 
 
¶6. (SBU) NEW OIL CODE: The ministry of mines has stated that it will 
draft a new oil law in 2010 to govern the oil sector for the next 
ten years.  The code will reportedly offer beneficial terms, as 
compared with those in other African countries, to attract 
investors.  Currently, two oil exploration projects are moving ahead 
in Madagascar:  Bemolanga (French Total and American Madagascar Oil 
joint venture) and Sakaraha (Sunpec of Hong Kong). 
 
¶7. (U) PRECIOUS WOOD DESTRUCTION:  On December 31, 2009, the 
recently appointed Prime Minister Camille Vital signed an executive 
order allowing the export of rosewood from Madagascar to continue. 
This authorization overrides a previous order which stated that it 
was illegal to export rosewood after November 30, 2009.  It is 
estimated that 200 containers of rosewood valued at 40 million USD 
in the Sava region will now be exported.  Ambassador Marquardt is 
hosting a meeting of financial and technical partners on January 21 
to determine a joint response to this unwelcome development. 
 
¶8. (SBU) UNSUSTAINABLE NATURAL RESOURCE EXPLOITATION:  Given the 
suspension of donor funds, to raise revenue, the GOM is turning 
increasingly to natural resource exploitation.  In addition to the 
unsustainable logging of precious hard woods, the mining ministry 
recently announced that it would grant 1,200 mining licenses this 
year.  The ministry will also promote the exploitation of coal 
reserves in the Southwest; Thai and Australian companies hold 
interests in those mining zones. 
 
¶9. (SBU) ENVIRONMENT VISIT:  The Regional Environmental Officers 
from U.S. Embassy Addis visited Madagascar January 7 - 14.  They met 
with conservation NGOs, USG agencies, World Bank representatives, 
mining companies, and a local judge to discuss the environmental 
degradation occurring in Madagascar.  The NGOs stressed that they 
support vulnerable human populations as an integral part of their 
conservation efforts, and thus argued that the donors, including the 
USG, should reopen the funding taps.  In addition to regretting the 
lack of political will on behalf of the de facto regime to combat 
illicit logging, NGO representatives lamented the current lack of 
donor funds and donor oversight in the environmental sector, which, 
they argued, have contributed to the current climate of lawlessness 
and open resource exploitation. 
 
¶10. (SBU) FRENCH AMB AT AMCHAM:  French Ambassador Jean-Marc 
Chataigner spoke to the American Chamber of Commerce on Jan 14 
regarding French commercial and political relations with Madagascar. 
 His EconOff noted the there are 650 French companies in Madagascar 
with more than 50 employees each, that France was the fifth largest 
foreign investor here, and that France was the primary importer of 
Malagasy products (38 percent) in 2009.  However, he also pointed 
out that Madagascar is not of strategic interest for France in 
general trade terms, as commerce with the island only accounts for 
less than 0.1 percent of overall French trade. 
 
¶11. (SBU) The French Ambassador said that France's main interest in 
Madagascar is promoting stable, democratic order because of the 
large French ex-pat community here (25,000), concern for regional 
stability affecting Mayotte and La Reunion, and a desire to avoid a 
power vacuum in Madagascar that could result in drug trafficking and 
piracy operations.  He denied accusations that French government 
policy was based on special business interests, noting that 
potentially the largest French investor, Total, signed its contract 
for investing in Madagascar's oil sector prior to the March 2009 
 
ANTANANARI 00000032  003 OF 003 
 
 
change of government here. 
 
¶12. (SBU) He argued that the French and the USG share the same 
ultimate goal of democratic stability, but differ on tactics as the 
French believe in diplomacy and discussions with the "bad guys", but 
the US "believes in force and sanctions".  He said that "perhaps we 
don't like some people" but that France did not have a preference 
for any particular presidential candidate, but only a desire for a 
stable government.  He argued that the Maputo and Addis agreements 
focused too much on the transition rather than elections and that a 
compromise solution must be found.  He reiterated the need for 
elections, but with certain guarantees following discussions on the 
date, the national electoral council, the unity government, etc.  He 
urged that the people be given the floor through elections to choose 
which political movements have support and should thus be involved 
in further negotiations. 
 
------- 
COMOROS 
------- 
 
¶13. (U) COMORAN TEACHERS ON STRIKE: Comoran teachers from all levels 
(primary, secondary, university) began an unlimited general strike 
the week of Jan 11, when classes had been scheduled to resume.  The 
strike was largely followed, and paralyzed educational 
establishments throughout the country.  The strikers are protesting 
non-payment of salaries (up to eight months, in some cases), 
administrative regularization of teachers currently working on 
temporary contracts, and the overall salary scale. 
 
¶14. (U) FORMER PRESIDENT AZALI OPPOSES EXTENSION FOR SAMBI: Former 
Comoran president Azali Assoumani broke his long silence on national 
affairs at a press conference held in Moroni.  While supporting in 
theory President Sambi's desire for harmonization of the electoral 
calendar, Azali warned Sambi that this should not be done by anyone 
extending their current mandate.  Opposition leaders were quick to 
praise Azali for his stand.  However, it is not clear what effect 
his position will have on the current debate in the Union National 
Assembly, where supporters of President Sambi hold an overwhelming 
majority of the seats. 
 
¶15.  (U) SARKOZY VISITS THE INDIAN OCEAN:  French President Sarkozy 
visited French overseas territory Mayotte on Monday and French 
department la Reunion on Tuesday, overflying Madagascar and the 
Union of the Comoros en route.  It was the first visit of a French 
President to Mayotte since Comoran independence.  Sarkozy reasserted 
France's claim to Mayotte following the 2009 referendum in which 
over 90 percent of the island's voters expressed their desire for 
full "Departement" status.  There was no popular reaction in the 
Comoros to either the visit or his statements, which merely 
reiterated standing French policy.  The Comoros consider Mayotte 
("Maori") to be Comoran territory illegally administered by France. 
 
 
MARQUARDT