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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 000003 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
H PASS TO REPRESENTATIVE WASSERMAN SCHULTZ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OVIP PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL WASSERMAN SCHULTZ 
 
ANKARA 00000003  001.3 OF 004 
 
 
Welcome 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Welcome to Ankara.  Your visit comes one month after 
Prime Minister Erdogan and President Obama met for three 
hours, an event that received a warm reception in the Turkish 
press.  The two leaders discussed our countries' close 
collaboration on Afghanistan, convincing Iran to give up its 
nuclear weapons program, eliminating the terrorist Kurdistan 
Workers Party (PKK), improving security in Iraq, and 
increasing bilateral trade.  The content of the fruitful 
discussions was outlined in their joint statement after the 
meeting, which can be found at 
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/re marks-president 
-obama-and-prime-minister-erdogan-turkey-afte r-meeting. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The past few months have been a busy period for the 
ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) government.  Since 
August, the AKP has begun to promote a 'National Unity 
Project' as a way to improve the ethnic Kurdish minority's 
social, economic and cultural situation.  The program aims to 
implement reforms that would reduce the alienation of those 
Turkish Kurds who would be otherwise inclined to support or 
join the PKK.  The military campaign against the PKK 
continues, and General Ilker Basbug, leader of the Turkish 
Armed Forces (TSK) has supported the National Unity Project 
as a complement to security operations.  The AKP hopes to 
find ways to apply the benefits of these reforms to other 
minority groups as well. 
 
¶3. (SBU) However, due to the December 11 decision by the 
Constitutional Court to close the predominantly Kurdish 
Democratic Society Party (DTP) and ban several of its members 
from politics for 5 years for their PKK connections, some 
Turkish Kurds have started to lose faith in the AKP and the 
project.  Opposition parties also increasingly are attacking 
the AKP for launching a project that would grant special 
treatment to a particular ethnic group, thereby threatening 
the Turkey's national cohesion. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Meanwhile, Turkish unemployment rose to dramatic 
highs in 2009.  While unemployment levels are dropping, the 
economy is still recovering from the global financial crisis, 
which hit Turkey's manufacturing sector hard due to a reduced 
demand for exports.  Turkey's per capita GDP is predicted to 
shrink by $2,000 in 2009, and it's GDP growth rate will be a 
negative 6 percent.  Increasing criticism of the AKP's 
economic policies provoked the Prime Minister to give his 
first "state of the economy" speech on December 30. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The discovery December 22 of an alleged plot by 
eight soldiers to assassinate State Minister Bulent Arinc has 
also generated extensive press coverage and fevered 
speculation the military is conspiring to overthrow a 
government whose Islamist orientation arouses the antagonism 
of the officer corps.  The investigation into the activities 
of the eight suspects is ongoing. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Your high-level meeting counterpart (to be 
confirmed) will be informed of your desire to discuss 
Turkey's role in the Middle East peace process, especially 
its relationship with Israel (para. 7), and Turkey's process 
of accession to the EU (para. 8).  Information about U.S. 
assistance programs to Turkey (para. 11), and Turkey's 
relations with Armenia (para 13) are below, as well as a 
paragraph on the charity that some members of your delegation 
will visit (para. 15). 
 
Turkey, Israel, and Middle East Peace 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Despite disagreement over the AKP government's 
outreach to HAMAS, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and former 
 
ANKARA 00000003  002.3 OF 004 
 
 
Israeli Prime Minister Olmert had communicated directly and 
frequently prior to the late December 2008 start of Israel's 
"Cast Lead" military operation in Gaza.  The operation played 
very badly for Israel in the Turkish media.  Clamorous public 
demonstrations in Ankara and Istanbul condemned perceived 
Israeli "war crimes" and demanded international intervention 
to protect Gazan civilians.  Erdogan harshly criticized 
Israel publicly and claimed Olmert had promised not to invade 
Gaza during his official visit to Turkey just a few days 
prior to ordering Cast Lead.  Erdogan implied he could no 
longer trust Olmert and Israeli diplomats and politicians 
suddenly lost access to senior GoT political levels.  Erdogan 
vigorously and frequently criticized Israel's closure of Gaza 
on humanitarian grounds up until Israeli Industry, Labor and 
Trade Minister Ben-Eliezer's late November visit to Ankara 
and Erdogan's December 7 meeting with President Obama.  Since 
those events, Erdogan's criticism has become noticeably 
muted.  The GoT has invited Israeli Defense Minister Barak to 
meetings in Ankara January 17.  We interpret that invitation 
positively as an indication of the Turkish government's 
willingness to reopen a senior-level communications channel 
with Israel.  You could very helpfully encourage this 
rapprochement by conveying to your interlocutors our belief 
that Ankara's aspiration to become a major Middle Eastern 
mediator would be more likely realized if the GoT cultivates 
and maintains a civil public dialogue with Israel as well as 
Syria and the Palestinian Authority. 
 
EU Accession 
------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) Turkey formally became a candidate state for the 
European Union in 2004 and began negotiations on October 3, 
¶2005.  So far, one chapter on science and technology has been 
opened and provisionally closed.  Eleven other chapters have 
been opened, on free movement of capital, company law 
(business regulation), intellectual property law, information 
society and media, statistics, enterprise and industrial 
policy, trans-European network, environment, consumer and 
health protection, and financial controls. Nine chapters, 
mostly related to trade, were suspended by the European 
Council in December 2006 after Turkey declined to open its 
ports and airports to Greek Cypriot vessels--a commitment 
Turkey made as part of the Ankara Additional Protocol and its 
EU Customs Union membership.  Six were blocked by Cyprus for 
similar reasons, and three were blocked by France for other 
reasons. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Turkish public is growing increasingly 
frustrated with the EU, in part because the accession process 
has been blocked by Cyprus and other states, but also in 
reaction to the skepticism about Turkey's suitability for 
membership in principle expressed by several EU member state 
leaders.  Nevertheless, the GOT is pushing forward on 
accession, creating a position of Minister for EU Accession 
in January 2009 and hiring 140 new civil servants to staff 
the ministry.  Regional offices will be opened in all 81 
provinces to help promote the goals of accession.  Raising 
living standards to those prevalent in Europe will require 
high rates of GDP growth and a well-functioning market 
economy.  This will entail continued structural reforms that 
encourage both domestic and foreign investment.  Principal 
areas for reform identified by international financial 
institutions include increasing flexibility in the labor 
market, making the educational sector more responsive to the 
needs of the economy, and ensuring faster and more 
predictable operation of the judicial system.  As an aspirant 
to membership in the European Union, Turkey aims to adopt the 
EU's basic system of national law and regulation (the acquis 
communataire) by 2014.  While implementing some elements of 
the acquis will be costly and difficult (for example in the 
areas of environmental protection and agriculture), its 
adoption will make a significant contribution to modernizing 
 
ANKARA 00000003  003.3 OF 004 
 
 
the economy. 
 
¶10. (SBU) A settlement in Cyprus negotiations will be key to 
keeping Turkey's accession talks on track because Cyprus is 
blocking the opening of six chapters.  The negotiations are 
expected to intensify ahead of the mid-February 2010 start of 
the Turkish Cypriot "presidential" campaign, which 
pro-settlement incumbent Mehmet Ali Talat will likely lose 
barring significant progress in the talks.  UN Special 
Advisor Downer aims to reach agreement on governance and 
power sharing, EU matters, and economy by mid-February, while 
leaving the difficult issues of property, territory, and 
security guarantees (involving the presence of Turkish troop 
and intervention rights) to the endgame. 
 
U.S. Assistance 
--------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) A democratic, market-oriented U.S. ally in a 
volatile region, Turkey is a front-line state in the world 
community's struggles against terrorism, drug trafficking, 
organized crime and weapons of mass destruction 
proliferation.  Its political and economic stability is 
critical to achieving a wide range of U.S. policy goals. 
With a 2008 per capita GDP of $10,436, Turkey's ability to 
contribute to these goals is limited by resource constraints, 
excessive bureaucracy, and domestic opposition to reform. 
Well-targeted U.S. assistance helps to address these 
bottlenecks and contributes to an improved perception of 
America among a mistrustful population. 
 
¶12. (SBU) For FY 2011, Post will request support for the 
following programs: 
 
-- Counterterrorism ($1.1 million) 
-- Resident Legal Advisor program ($700,000) 
-- Combating weapons of mass destruction ($1.2 million) 
-- International military education and training (IMET)($5 
million) 
-- Counternarcotics (INCLE) ($500,000) 
-- Economic support fund (ESF) 
      -- Governing justly and democratically ($400,000) 
      -- Investing in people ($1 million) 
      -- Economic growth ($6.1 million) 
 
Armenia 
------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) The USG has worked hard to encourage candid 
discussion in Turkey of the tragedy suffered by ethnic 
Armenians during World War I.  The Turkish and Armenian 
governments have made important progress in their 
negotiations on normalizing bilateral relations and opening 
the border.  On April 22, Turkey and Armenia issued a joint 
statement on the "road map" to normalizing their bilateral 
relations.  There has also been a small, but growing voice 
within Turkey calling for a more open examination of the 
events during that period.  The number one issue in 
U.S.-Turkish bilateral relations is whether the USG or 
Congress will endorse a resolution labeling this tragedy a 
genocide, which would incense Turkey's public and set back 
the efforts of those in Turkey calling for comprehensive 
examination of the history and normalized Turkish-Armenian 
relations. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Turkey and Armenia began a process of rapprochement 
recently.  On October 8, Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet 
Davutoglu and Armenia's Foreign Minister Edward Narabandian 
signed protocols to reestablish formally diplomatic 
relations.  The protocols have to be ratified by each 
country's parliament before they can be enacted, however, and 
have languished since they were signed.  Azerbaijan does not 
support Turkey's reestablishment of relations until Armenia 
 
ANKARA 00000003  004.3 OF 004 
 
 
withdraws from certain regions of the Nagorno-Karabakh, and 
Turkey's public is loath to turn its back on its Turkic 
brother country.  The OSCE Minsk Group, which has been 
working with Armenia and Azerbaijan to reach a settlement on 
the Nagorno-Karabakh, has not been making much progress 
lately.  The U.S. does not recognize this linkage, however, 
and continues to press for the protocols to be passed in 
parliament quickly. 
 
ANACEV 
------ 
 
¶15. (SBU) The Anatolia Contemporary Education Foundation 
(ANACEV) was established in 1997, and provides (a) education 
to adult women -- especially in reading and writing -- as its 
primary goal, (b) education to pre-school students, and (c) 
scholarships to primary, secondary, and university students. 
The foundation runs three literacy centers and a kindergarten 
in Ankara.  Construction of the kindergarten, which collects 
fees for enrollment that it uses in part to fund its 
scholarship program, was partly funded by former Ambassador 
Robert Pearson's wife. 
 
¶16. (SBU) The delegation's spouses will visit the Yildiz 
literacy center for ANACEV, which was opened in 1997.  The 
center particularly reaches out to illiterate women who live 
in the city's dilapidated "built-at-night" (gecekondu) 
houses, constructed by poor and recent migrant families.  The 
spouse of Post's former Deputy Chief of Mission Nancy 
McEldowney, Tim Hayes, worked with embassy employees to 
collect computers and desks to furnish one room of the center 
where they teach computer literacy.  Secretary Clinton 
visited this center in 1999 in her capacity as First Lady. 
ANACEV's president, who was former Prime Minister Tansu 
Ciller's Chief of Cabinet, is Mrs. Ayla Hatirli. 
 
¶17. (U) We look forward to your visit. 
JEFFREY 
 
           "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s 
gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"