VZCZCXRO2570
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHVB #0723/01 3441308
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 101308Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9723
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000723 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS S/WCI FOR RAPP AND EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KAWC ICTY HR
SUBJECT: CROATIA CONTINUING INVESTIGATIONS WHILE PREPARING 
FOR ICTY HEARING 
 
REF: ZAGREB 694 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Chris Zimmer for Reasons 1.4 (b) and ( 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  The Government of Croatia is preparing for 
a Trial Chamber hearing at The Hague on December 16 to 
assess its cooperation with the ICTY, which the GoC sees as 
a critical juncture in Croatia's EU accession process. 
Justice Minister Simonovic told the Ambassador on December 
8 that if Chapter 23 (Judiciary and Fundamental Rights) 
remains blocked through the spring of 2010, it could 
combine with other factors to have a destabilizing effect 
on the country.  Ambassador Foley offered suggestions for 
enhancing the work of the Task Force and to shape GOC 
public attitudes on the documents and ICTY cooperation. 
The two agreed to consult again in mid-January to review 
any further results of the GoC Task Force and a ruling by 
the Trial Chamber which might give impetus to the EU to 
move on Chapter 23. END SUMMARY. 
 
Brammertz Not Interested in Task Force's Work 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Ambassador Foley met with Justice Minister Ivan 
Simonovic on December 7 to discuss the GoC's continuing 
investigations into the missing artillery documents and the 
upcoming hearing at ICTY on Croatia's cooperation, as well 
as strategies for unblocking Chapter 23 (Judiciary and 
Fundamental Rights) in the EU accession process (Reftel). 
The Minister said that the Task Force will continue to 
establish an ever more complete record of the disappearance 
of the documents and who was responsible, but added that it 
was unlikely the documents will be found.  Simonovic fears 
that Brammertz is not interested in a credible 
investigation which fails to produce documents, however. 
Given that the most likely success the Task Force could 
produce will be "additional explanations of how the 
documents disappeared," he was concerned that the work of 
the Task Force may be futile.  He said that Brammertz 
accuses the GOC of trying to run out the clock with the 
trial nearing its conclusion, but the GOC has no illusions 
and understands that Brammertz will continue to insist on 
Croatia producing the documents throughout the appeals 
process.  Simonovic later said that he is "pretty convinced 
that documents exist" (in the hands of people around 
General Gotovina), so there remains a slim possibility some 
could still be recovered. 
 
Continued Blockade Would Be Catastrophe 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Simonovic said that if Chapter 23 and Croatia's EU 
accession remained blocked through two more years of the 
appeals process it would be "a catastrophe."  In fact, he 
thought the critical point would come as early as next 
spring.  The state's finances are likely to be weak, 
requiring a rebalancing of the budget which could have 
significant social consequences.  He said that if the EU 
path were not open at that point, it could be destabilizing 
not only to the GOC but to the country.  The Ambassador 
acknowledged the stakes in the Chapter 23 blockade, but 
said the USG could not hope to intervene successfully with 
key EU parties without positive developments to point to. 
Finding documents was the only certain way; we want in any 
event to see what the GOC and its Task Force could produce 
over the next month.  Simonovic said that he recently spoke 
to the Finnish Foreign Minister, who said Croatia "is very 
close to opening Chapter 23." Simonovic said this would 
leave the Dutch and British as the lone firm opponents to 
unblocking negotiations. 
 
Trial Chamber is a Critical Step; Potential for Public 
Backlash 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶4. (C/NF) Both the Ambassador and Minister agreed that the 
Trial Chamber's actions  -- both the December 16 hearing on 
Croatia's cooperation and especially the subsequent 
decision expected in January -- would prove critical 
milestones.  Simonovic said that he hopes Croatia's 
presentation on Dec. 16 might help sway the UK and the 
Netherlands to soften their positions.  The GOC would make 
it clear to the Trial Chamber that all the Task Force's 
evidence points straight to Gotovina and his associates as 
responsible for stealing the documents. The message, he 
said, will be that the GOC is not protecting anyone for 
 
ZAGREB 00000723  002 OF 002 
 
 
things they have done in the past and wants the truth to be 
uncovered. Simonovic did express concern that the GOC's 
willingness to continue its investigation may undermine its 
hopes of getting the Chamber to rule that Croatia has 
completely fulfilled the Court's order of September 16, 
¶2008.  Realistically, the best outcome the GoC can look for 
would be that the Court states that Croatia is cooperating 
and making progress and urging that the investigation 
should continue.  A positive ruling of this type might give 
the UK and Netherlands grounds to permit the opening of 
Chapter 23. 
 
¶5. (C/NF) Accusing Gotovina and his team in open court is 
very delicate for the GOC, Simonovic said, given Gotovina's 
standing as a national hero with the Croatian population. 
Simonovic is even concerned with the physical configuration 
of the courtroom and whether the GOC experts would have 
Gotovina in their field of vision during their 
presentation.  Ambassador Foley stressed the importance of 
top GOC leadership communicating to the public that 
Gotovina's personal interest were deeply at odds with the 
nation's interests. 
 
Amnesty for Documents? 
---------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) To increase cooperation from the public, the 
Ambassador suggested that authorities offer amnesty to 
anyone who comes forward with documents or information 
about their destruction.  This would also require clear 
pubic messages from the GOC leadership that helping the 
government to find the documents was in the national 
interest.  At first, Simonovic was concerned about making 
an amnesty offer after prosecutors won three successful 
convictions against persons involved in concealing or 
destroying documents, but later said that he found the 
suggestion intriguing. 
 
¶7. (C/NF) Both sides agreed to consult again in mid-January 
once the Task Force has additional results and in 
expectation of a Trial Chamber ruling on Croatia's 
cooperation which might give impetus to the EU to move 
forward on Chapter 23. Simonovic expects the Trial 
Chamber's decision will be more positive than Brammertz's 
recent assessments, but that after mid-January he sees no 
other event that could be used to sway EU opinions until 
possibly in the summer, when he expects a verdict in the 
Gotovina case. 
 
¶8. (C/NF) Prime Minister Kosor's foreign policy advisor, 
Davor Stier, provided a more upbeat assessment to the 
Ambassador later on December 8.  Stier felt that an 
important psychological milestone had been reached in the 
past week.  On the one hand, Brammertz had discovered that 
he could risk acknowledging GoC good faith and progress 
without the Croatians using that to argue that further 
investigation and cooperation was unnecessary.  The Croats' 
assumption that Brammertz would never recognize progress on 
their part, no matter what they did, had also been 
overturned.  Stier said Kosor had given the investigative 
Task Force marching orders over last weekend to invigorate 
their efforts, and he expressed guarded optimism that 
further positive results could be achieved. 
 
¶9. (C/NF) COMMENT: The Croatians clearly understand the 
need to continue their improved investigative efforts, but 
are deeply concerned with what it will mean for their EU 
negotiations if even the best investigation in the world 
fails to turn up the documents.  Although Brammertz has now 
acknowledged progress, he has still been unwilling to give 
a signal to the EU that cooperation is sufficient to allow 
Chapter 23 negotiations to begin.  The Trial Chamber's 
hearing and ruling therefore may be Croatia's best hope of 
convincing EU Member States that the GoC is doing what it 
can to investigate the documents, and is committed to 
continuing to do so.  But the Croatians also need to be 
prepared for what to do if the Chamber's decision is 
negative, or even inconclusive.  Simonovic jokingly 
observed that then all they could do would be to "hang 
every person involved in the investigations to date", 
including himself.  END COMMENT. 
 
FOLEY