VZCZCXRO2565
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHVB #0722/01 3441308
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 101308Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9720
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ZAGREB 000722 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS S/WCI FOR RAPP AND EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KAWC ICTY HR
SUBJECT: CROATIA CONTINUING INVESTIGATIONS WHILE PREPARING 
FOR ICTY HEARING 
 
REF: ZAGREB 694 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Chris Zimmer for Reasons 1.4 (b) and ( 
d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  The Government of Croatia is preparing for a 
Trial Chamber hearing at 
The Hague on December 16 to assess its cooperation with the 
ICTY, which the GoC sees as 
a critical juncture in Croatia's EU accession process. 
Justice Minister Simonovic told 
the Ambassador on December 8 that if Chapter 23 (Judiciary 
and Fundamental Rights) 
remains blocked through the spring of 2010, it could combine 
with other factors to have 
a destabilizing effect on the country.  Ambassador Foley 
offered suggestions for 
enhancing the work of the Task Force and to shape GOC public 
attitudes on the documents 
and ICTY cooperation.  The two agreed to consult again in 
mid-January to review any 
further results of the GoC Task Force and a ruling by the 
Trial Chamber which might 
give impetus to the EU to move on Chapter 23. END SUMMARY. 
 
Brammertz Not Interested in Task Force's Work 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Ambassador Foley met with Justice Minister Ivan 
Simonovic on December 7 to 
discuss the GoC's continuing investigations into the missing 
artillery documents and the 
upcoming hearing at ICTY on Croatia's cooperation, as well as 
strategies for unblocking 
Chapter 23 (Judiciary and Fundamental Rights) in the EU 
accession process (Reftel).  The 
Minister said that the Task Force will continue to establish 
an ever more complete record 
of the disappearance of the documents and who was 
responsible, but added that it was 
unlikely the documents will be found.  Simonovic fears that 
Brammertz is not interested 
in a credible investigation which fails to produce documents, 
however.  Given that the 
most likely success the Task Force could produce will be 
"additional explanations of how 
the documents disappeared," he was concerned that the work of 
the Task Force may be 
futile.  He said that Brammertz accuses the GOC of trying to 
run out the clock with the 
trial nearing its conclusion, but the GOC has no illusions 
and understands that Brammertz 
will continue to insist on Croatia producing the documents 
throughout the appeals process. 
Simonovic later said that he is "pretty convinced that 
documents exist" (in the hands of 
people around General Gotovina), so there remains a slim 
possibility some could still be 
recovered. 
 
Continued Blockade Would Be Catastrophe 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Simonovic said that if Chapter 23 and Croatia's EU 
accession remained blocked 
through two more years of the appeals process it would be "a 
catastrophe."  In fact, he 
thought the critical point would come as early as next 
spring.  The state's finances are 
likely to be weak, requiring a rebalancing of the budget 
which could have significant 
social consequences.  He said that if the EU path were not 
open at that point, it could be 
destabilizing not only to the GOC but to the country.  The 
Ambassador acknowledged the 
stakes in the Chapter 23 blockade, but said the USG could not 
hope to intervene successfully 
with key EU parties without positive developments to point 
to. Finding documents was the 
only certain way; we want in any event to see what the GOC 
and its Task Force could produce 
over the next month.  Simonovic said that he recently spoke 
to the Finnish Foreign Minister, 
who said Croatia "is very close to opening Chapter 23." 
Simonovic said this would leave the 
Dutch and British as the lone firm opponents to unblocking 
 
ZAGREB 00000722  002 OF 003 
 
 
negotiations. 
 
Trial Chamber a Critical Step; Potential for Public Backlash 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶4. (C/NF) Both the Ambassador and Minister agreed that the 
Trial Chamber's actions  -- both 
the December 16 hearing on Croatia's cooperation and 
especially the subsequent decision 
expected in January -- would prove critical milestones. 
Simonovic said that he hopes 
Croatia's presentation on Dec. 16 might help sway the UK and 
the Netherlands to soften their 
positions.  The GOC would make it clear to the Trial Chamber 
that all the Task Force's 
evidence points straight to Gotovina and his associates as 
responsible for stealing the 
documents. The message, he said, will be that the GOC is not 
protecting anyone for things 
they have done in the past and wants the truth to be 
uncovered. Simonovic did express concern 
that the GOC's willingness to continue its investigation may 
undermine its hopes of getting 
the Chamber to rule that Croatia has completely fulfilled the 
Court's order of September 16, 
¶2008.  Realistically, the best outcome the GoC can look for 
would be that the Court states 
that Croatia is cooperating and making progress and urging 
that the investigation should 
continue.  A positive ruling of this type might give the UK 
and Netherlands grounds to permit 
the opening of Chapter 23. 
 
¶5. (C/NF) Accusing Gotovina and his team in open court is 
very delicate for the GOC, Simonovic 
said, given Gotovina's standing as a national hero with the 
Croatian population. Simonovic is 
even concerned with the physical configuration of the 
courtroom and whether the GOC experts 
would have Gotovina in their field of vision during their 
presentation.  Ambassador Foley 
stressed the importance of top GOC leadership communicating 
to the public that Gotovina's 
personal interests were deeply at odds with the nation's 
interests. 
 
Amnesty for Documents? 
---------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) To increase cooperation from the public, the 
Ambassador suggested that authorities offer 
amnesty to anyone who comes forward with documents or 
information about their destruction.  This 
would also require clear pubic messages from the GOC 
leadership that helping the government to 
find the documents was in the national interest.  At first, 
Simonovic was concerned about making 
an amnesty offer after prosecutors won three successful 
convictions against persons involved in 
concealing or destroying documents, but later said that he 
found the suggestion intriguing. 
 
¶7. (C/NF) Both sides agreed to consult again in mid-January 
once the Task Force has additional 
results and in expectation of a Trial Chamber ruling on 
Croatia's cooperation which might give 
impetus to the EU to move forward on Chapter 23. Simonovic 
expects the Trial Chamber's decision 
will be more positive than Brammertz's recent assessments, 
but that after mid-January he sees no 
other event that could be used to sway EU opinions until 
possibly in the summer, when he expects 
a verdict in the Gotovina case. 
 
¶8. (C/NF) Prime Minister Kosor's foreign policy advisor, 
Davor Stier, provided a more upbeat 
assessment to the Ambassador later on December 8.  Stier felt 
that an important psychological 
milestone had been reached in the past week.  On the one 
hand, Brammertz had discovered that he 
could risk acknowledging GoC good faith and progress without 
the Croatians using that to argue 
that further investigation and cooperation was unnecessary. 
The Croats' assumption that Brammertz 
would never recognize progress on their part, no matter what 
they did, had also been overturned. 
 
ZAGREB 00000722  003 OF 003 
 
 
Stier said Kosor had given the investigative Task Force 
marching orders over last weekend to 
invigorate their efforts, and he expressed guarded optimism 
that further positive results could 
be achieved. 
 
¶9. (C/NF) COMMENT: The Croatians clearly understand the need 
to continue their improved 
investigative efforts, but are deeply concerned with what it 
will mean for their EU negotiations if 
even the best investigation in the world fails to turn up the 
documents.  Although Brammertz has 
now acknowledged progress, he has still been unwilling to 
give a signal to the EU that cooperation 
is sufficient to allow Chapter 23 negotiations to begin.  The 
Trial Chamber's hearing and ruling 
therefore may be Croatia's best hope of convincing EU Member 
States that the GoC is doing what it 
can to investigate the documents, and is committed to 
continuing to do so.  But the Croatians also 
need to be prepared for what to do if the Chamber's decision 
is negative, or even inconclusive. 
Simonovic jokingly observed that then all they could do would 
be to "hang every person involved in 
the investigations to date", including himself.  END COMMENT. 
FOLEY