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RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHYE #0885/01 3561348
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 221348Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9888
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000885 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU AJ AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIAN NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SPEAKER WEIGHS IN ON 
FOREIGN POLICY AND DOMESTIC REFORMS 
 
REF: A. YEREVAN 871 
     ¶B. YEREVAN 831 
 
Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY: CDA Joseph Pennington, reasons 1.4 (b, d) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1. (C) Parliamentary Speaker Abrahamian believes, based on 
conversation with his Turkish counterpart, that the Turkish 
Parliament has the votes necessary to ratify the 
Turkey-Armenia normalization protocols, if the government 
makes the political decision to proceed.  On democracy and 
human rights, Abrahamian argues that, particularly in 
comparison with Azerbaijan, Armenia (or more specifically, 
he) is taking important steps.  The Speaker seems noticeably 
less enthused, however, about serious efforts to tackle 
corruption and conflict of interest in government in ways 
that might undermine his own, growing power base or net 
worth.  END SUMMARY. 
 
PARLIAMENTARY DIPLOMACY WITH THE TURKS 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) National Assembly Speaker Hovik Abrahamian shared with 
Ambassador on December 17 the positive recent interaction he 
had with his counterpart in the Turkish Parliament, Mehmet 
Ali Sahin.  On the margins of a November Black Sea Economic 
Cooperation (BSEC) forum in Moscow, he and the Turkish 
Speaker had what Abrahamian described as a "very 
constructive" meeting discussing bilateral relations. 
Abrahamian expressed his support for the Turkey-Armenia 
normalization process, said Armenia should have no eternal 
friends or enemies, and asked why, when there is close to 
$250 million in trade between Turkey and Armenia passing 
through Georgia this year, they shouldn't just cut out the 
middle-man.  In response to Abrahamian's question about when 
Turkey would ratify the normalization protocols, Sahin 
reportedly said he expected the Foreign Affairs committee to 
make its recommendation to the Parliament in December.  He 
noted that though the opposition was strong, "if the 
political decision is made, we won't have problems 
ratifying."  Sahin also, according to Abrahamian, promised to 
do everything he could to secure ratification. 
 
¶3. (C) Abrahamian said he told Sahin that parliamentary 
diplomacy could help their presidents.  The two agreed that 
their MPs should meet, and agreed to find other opportunities 
for such interaction.  Sahin suggested that BSEC in Istanbul 
could extend an invitation to Abrahamian and others to come 
to Turkey under its auspices in order to afford the 
parliamentarians bilateral meetings on the side --  an 
invitation Abrahamian told Ambassador he had just received 
the day before.  Before accepting, though, Abrahamian said he 
would need to consult with President Sargsian, and would need 
to be assured that the Turkish Parliament intends to ratify 
within a reasonable time-frame.  "Imagine how it would look," 
Abrahamian worried, if he went and ratification did not 
follow: "It wouldn't be dignified."  (COMMENT: Abrahamian did 
not seem to appreciate that the real value in parliamentary 
exchanges would be in building support for ratification, 
rather than as a pre-victory lap for a done deal.) 
 
ARMENIAN PATIENCE HAS ITS LIMITS 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) The Speaker confirmed that a group of Armenian experts 
was looking into mechanisms for canceling Armenia's signature 
of the protocols should Turkey not ratify in a reasonable 
time-frame.  He denied that Armenia would consider ratifying 
first in order to put pressure on the Turks, with a trigger 
to withdraw should Turkey not hold up its end.  (COMMENT: We 
suspect Abrahamian may be working from an old talking point, 
and that Armenia ratifying first may be on the table.  See 
ref A.  END COMMENT.)  He said the National Assembly would 
wait until the end of March before taking any action to 
withdraw signature.  (NOTE: This is the latest deadline we 
have heard.  The Presidency and MFA say January/February.) 
He asked Ambassador to imagine the problems the government 
would face if this were not settled by April 24, Armenia's 
Day of Remembrance. 
 
ALIYEV THE AGGRESSOR 
-------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) On Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) negotiations, Abrahamian said 
Azerbaijani President Aliyev was obviously trying to gain 
benefits from a linkage to the normalization process.  He 
said President Sargsian was unhappy with Aliyev's "aggressive 
attitude" in their last meeting, and with his making 
 
YEREVAN 00000885  002 OF 002 
 
 
additional demands never discussed before.  Abrahamian said 
Armenia is ready for mutual, reasonable concessions, and is 
interested in continuing to pursue resolution within the 
context of the OSCE.  He then launched into a complaint about 
Azerbaijani war rhetoric, Aliyev's elimination of 
presidential term limits, and what he called the mild 
American response to such warmongering and anti-democratic 
processes. 
 
ARMENIAN PROGRESS ON DEMOCRACY... 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Abrahamian used his critique of Aliyev's becoming 
"another sultan" to segue into a discussion of his own 
democratic credentials.  He said he had been the first to 
argue for the opposition's rights to free assembly, arguing 
that banning rallies only increased interest.  "Now not even 
100 show up" for organized protests, he noted.  He said he 
had been the one to suggest to the opposition that they 
should bring any issue of concern up for public hearings, as 
with those he recently arranged on the NGO draft law (ref B). 
 
 
¶7. (C) On detainees held in connection with the March 1 
post-election violence, he said he had discussed with the 
President the need to review cases to see what could be done 
to release them.  He agreed with the Ambassador that the 
benefits of releasing them, both domestically and 
internationally, far outweighed the costs.  He said they 
would use parole, suspended sentences, and pardons where 
possible, and would review remaining cases in January. 
Abrahamian said, however, that some of those detained in 
connection with March 1 should not go free, as with Nikol 
Pashinian, whom the Speaker considered the main instigator of 
the violence, and someone "with ten murders on his head." 
 
...BUT ON TRANSPARENCY, NOT SO MUCH 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Abrahamian's progressive language seemed to fade as 
talk turned to the fight against corruption.  He 
characterized the Prime Minister, generally viewed as a 
reformer in the area, as someone who gives a good speech but 
does little else.  He told of challenging the PM publicly to 
articulate exactly what tools or leverage he lacks for the 
fight against corruption and oligopolies, suggesting that he 
received no satisfactory answer in reply.  "Speeches and 
actions have to match!" he said.  Without any noticeable 
sense of irony, he went on to ridicule the PM's asset 
declaration draft law that would require 500 most senior 
public officials to come clean about their holdings and 
business interests.  "I don't accept such things," he 
proclaimed. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9. (C) Abrahamian is widely considered one of Sargsian's most 
formidable rivals, and someone who is carefully building up 
his own power base.  His instincts are not progressive 
(contacts speak of him as an unsophisticated thug), but 
sometimes his political calculations are.  With detainees or 
the NGO law, for example, Abrahamian likely concluded there 
was decent upside and limited cost to at least presenting 
himself as an advocate for inclusiveness and reconciliation. 
But where a reform agenda collides with his personal or 
political interests, as with a draft law requiring him to 
reveal his considerable business holdings, he reverts to what 
most suspect is his true, thuggish form.  Our challenge is to 
influence his political calculations by highlighting 
international interest in a progressive agenda.  On 
Turkey-Armenia, we will look for ways to support his 
parliamentary diplomacy, playing to his sense that he has a 
valuable potential role in this historic process -- an appeal 
that has the added virtue of being true. 
PENNINGTON