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DE RUEHYD #1046/01 3451142
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R 111142Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0523
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L YAOUNDE 001046 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2019 
TAGS: CM ECON PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: CAMEROONIAN PRESIDENT BIYA UNUSUALLY ACTIVE 
 
REF: A. YAOUNDE 1007 
     ¶B. YAOUNDE 972 
 
Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.4 (d) and (e) 
. 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary:  Cameroonian President Paul Biya has been 
uncharacteristically active in the past two months.  He 
issued a letter to the Cameroonian people, attended two high 
profile public events, announced several other future 
engagements, encouraged his party to refocus on bread and 
butter issues, received three regional heads of state, and 
admonished several major partners not to criticize his 
decisions.  Almost six months ago, Biya reshuffled his 
Cabinet and directed his Cabinet to fight inertia and 
reenergize the economy; since then, the government has been 
more actively pursuing infrastructure projects, although none 
has been completed.  Biya's new dynamism contrasts with his 
usual conservative lethargy.  Observers here take it for 
granted that he is in active campaign mode to run again in 
the next presidential election.  His activism also seems 
designed to show he's still in charge and to stave off 
post-Biya jockeying within his party and government.  Biya's 
recent activism is fueling widespread speculation that he may 
move the scheduled 2011 election forward to 2010.  As one of 
his senior aides recently told us, "2010 is certain to be 
very active."  End summary. 
 
The Domestic Signals 
-------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  Biya has been unusually active on the domestic 
front.  His moves over the past two months included: 
 
-- The letter:  As reported ref A, on November 5, on the eve 
of the 27th anniversary of his presidency, Biya wrote his 
first-ever letter to the nation in the private print media, 
which he has usually treated with hostility.  While not 
widely read by the majority of Cameroonians, the private 
media is influential among Cameroon's elites.  In the letter, 
Biya invoked the World Cup qualifying success of the national 
soccer team, the Indomitable Lions, to urge Cameroonians to 
feel good about themselves. 
 
-- ENAM:  On December 1. Biya attended a ceremony to 
commemorate the fiftieth anniversary of the National School 
of Administration and Magistracy (ENAM).  Biya rarely attends 
such events, typically delegating someone (often the Prime 
Minister) to represent him.  ENAM trains all government civil 
administrators and judges and these days has a reputation for 
producing corrupt and incompetent officials.  Biya urged good 
governance and patriotism; however, more than his message, 
his rare presence got all the media attention. 
 
-- EMIA:  On December 4, for the first time in many years, 
Biya attended the awards ceremony for two graduating classes 
at the Ecole Militaire Interarmees (EMIA).  (Biya attended 
this ceremony almost every year in the 1990s.) 
 
-- Early announcements:  Biya almost never makes early 
announcements about events on his calendar.  In the past 
month, he did so twice.  During the visit of Chadian 
President Idriss Deby in October, Biya announced the 
anticipated visit of Central African Republic President 
Francois Bozize in December.  During the EMIA event, Biya 
announced he would commemorate the fiftieth anniversary of 
Cameroonian armed forces in 2010 in Bamenda. 
 
-- CPDM Activism:  Biya redirected the ruling Cameroon 
People's Democratic Movement (CPDM), which he heads, to shift 
priorities to areas of leading national concern, such as 
economics, jobs, education and health.  CPDM "militants" have 
been touring the country with a message conveying this new 
focus.  A big meeting of the Central Committee in the 
President's home town of Sanmelima, South Region, on December 
5 reportedly spurred calls for Biya to run and for the party 
to train for an election, although it also appeared to reveal 
tensions within the local party leadership.  Rumors have been 
swirling that Biya will create a Vice President position and 
that he will soon tour the country (he hasn't traveled in the 
country, outside of his village and Yaounde, since 2005). 
 
-- Economic Activism:  The past few months have brought a 
flurry of movement on major infrastructure projects, 
including roads and power projects.  The recently completed 
budget projects an 11% increase in expenditure despite GDP 
growth predictions of 2.4%, reduced anticipated revenues, and 
a sizable expected drop in oil production.  While the details 
of the budget have not yet been released (and will be 
reported septel), contacts tell us it includes a heavy boost 
for public works and social spending, reflecting the needs of 
a more political period. 
 
International Activism 
---------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C)  Biya has also shown new energy on the international 
stage, including: 
 
-- Central African Leaders Come Calling:  In recent years, 
Biya has not been active as a regional leader.  In the past 
three months, Biya received visits from President Ali Bongo 
(then President-elect), Chadian President Idris Deby and 
Central African President Francois Bozize.  In all three 
visits, the leaders reportedly focused on security, economics 
and regional integration, in anticipation of a December 14 
meeting of the Central African Economic and Monetary 
Community (CEMAC) in Bangui. 
 
-- Lecturing Western Partners:  As reported ref B, on 
November 25, Minister of External Relations Henri Eyebe 
Ayissi summoned Ambassador to read her a message from 
President Biya telling us not to criticize his government, 
especially about the Electoral Commission (ELECAM).  He 
delivered the same message to the European Union, German and 
French Ambassadors.  This was the first time in our 
collective memory that Biya had delivered a demarche in this 
format to resident Ambassadors.  While it may have been the 
product of clumsy diplomacy, Biya may also have hoped to 
preempt criticism for an anticipated political move. 
 
An Election in 2010? 
-------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C)  Biya and the CPDM have been in campaign mode for 
some time and it is increasingly taken for granted that Biya 
will run in the next election.  His recent activism has made 
that more obvious and has fueled speculation that he may call 
an early election in 2010.  Observers are divided on whether 
a 2010 election date is likely and whether a constitutional 
amendment would be required to set the stage.  The 
constitution stipulates that presidential elections should 
take place every seven years and does not make provisions for 
calling early elections.  Nonetheless, no one doubts that 
Biya could amend the constitution or find another legal 
instrument to move elections forward if he wishes.  Some 
contacts argue that the Electoral Commission (ELECAM) could 
not be ready to run an early election.  Our sense is that if 
the President wanted, he could make ELECAM technically 
capable of running an election in a short period of time, 
using the flawed 2007 electoral register, directing the 
needed budgetary support, and providing it with property and 
staff from the Ministry of Territorial Administration 
(MINATD), which used to run elections through its National 
Elections Observatory (ONEL).  Some observers point out that 
ONEL was created only eight months before the June 2002 
municipal and legislative elections. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  Biya's increased activism is probably not all 
indicative of early elections.  Biya's new leadership in 
Central Africa may be more a consequence of the vacuum left 
by the death of former Gabonese President Omar Bonga.  The 
economic activism may reflect a realization, especially in 
the context of the global economic crisis, that Cameroon's 
economy needs a jumpstart.  Some contacts suggest Biya is now 
being served by better staff, who are more savvy about 
communication.  Some suggest he is motivated by his desire to 
leave a stronger legacy of accomplishments, especially with 
infrastructure projects.  Biya's new hightened pace seems in 
part designed to show he is still in charge, fending off 
those around him who are already actively jockeying for 
post-Biya leadership.  This was also a factor in his 2008 
decision to eliminate presidential term limits. 
 
¶6.  (C)  There are political reasons Biya may want early 
elections, in addition to keeping the post-Biya positioning 
game off balance.  He may be concerned about a reprieve of 
the kind of social unrest seen in 2008, given recent 
rumblings from trade unions, persistent frustration and 
poverty, and publicly voiced concerns about the government's 
ability to pay civil service salaries.  He may want to 
strengthen his hand to neutralize dissenting factions within 
the party and buy more time to godfather a successor.  He may 
also want to take advantage of the feel good factor of 
Cameroon's current World Cup soccer success. 
 
¶7.  (C)  While early presidential elections are very 
possible, Biya is famously enigmatic and likes keeping the 
country guessing about his plans.  He takes his time in 
making decisions and has a reputation of sending mixed 
signals that confound even the most seasoned observers.  The 
Ambassador saw this in a recent meeting with Rene Sadi, 
Secretary General of the CPDM and Minister at the Presidency, 
one of Biya's closest confidantes.  In response to a question 
about possible early elections, Sadi responded "anything is 
possible.  2010 is certain to be very active." 
GARVEY