VZCZCXRO0578
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHWD #0453/01 3421527
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 081527Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0900
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 WINDHOEK 000453 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM WA
SUBJECT: NAMIBIA: OPPOSITION CONTESTS FINAL ELECTION RESULTS 
 
REF: A. WINDHOEK 441 
     ¶B. WINDHOEK 433 
     ¶C. WINDHOEK 401 
     ¶D. WINDHOEK 377 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  After six days of counting, tabulating, and 
verifying votes, the Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN) 
issued its final results for the November 27-28 2009 
Presidential and National Assembly (parliamentary) elections 
late on December 4.  The ruling SWAPO party and the incumbent 
President Hifikepunye Pohamba won with an overwhelming 
majority of the votes 75 and 76 percent respectively.  These 
percentages precisely mirror SWAPO's results of 2004.  The 
Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP), which was formed in 
2007 by some breakaway senior members of SWAPO, won 11 
percent of the vote and will become the official opposition. 
The RDP claims that ECN manipulated the election results. 
Nine opposition parties have joined the RDP  in taking the 
ECN to court to contest the results.  Turnout nationwide was 
a bit lower than in 2004, but there is wide variability in 
turnout figures across constituencies and regions.  Many 
SWAPO strongholds actually saw sizable increases in turnout, 
while areas where SWAPO is less popular saw decreases.  The 
President and the new National Assembly will be sworn in on 
March 21, 2010.  End Summary. 
 
----------------------------- 
Presidential Election Results 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  The incumbent President Hifikepunye Pohamba, of the 
ruling SWAPO party, won with an overwhelming majority of the 
votes (76.4 percent).  Coincidentally, this percentage 
mirrors precisely his tally in 2004.  Hidipo Hamutenya of the 
Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP), Pohamba's chief 
rival, garnered 11 percent of the vote.  No other candidate 
received more than three percent. 
 
2009 Presidential Election Results 
 
Party  Candidate   Votes    Percent 
----------------------------------- 
SWAPO  Pohamba     611,241  76.4% 
RDP    Hamutenya    88,640  11.0% 
DTA    Kaura        24,186   3.0% 
NUDO   Riruako      23,735   2.9% 
UDF    Garoeb       19,258   2.4% 
APP    Shixwameni    9,981   1.3% 
RP     Mudge         9,425   1.2% 
COD    Ulenga        5,812   0.7% 
SWANU  Maamberua     2,968   0.4% 
DPN    Isaacs        1,859   0.2% 
NMDC   Goagoseb      1,760   0.2% 
CP     Beukes        1,005   0.1% 
=================================== 
       Total       799,870 
 
 
National Assembly Election Results 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU)  SWAPO received 75 percent of the vote for the 
National Assembly, also matching its tally of 2004.  RDP 
picked up 11 percent of the National Assembly votes making it 
the new official opposition party, taking the mantle away 
from the Congress of Democrats (CoD).  The CoD finished 
eighth amongst the 14 parties that contested for the National 
Assembly.  Given that SWAPO's winning percentage was 
unchanged, the RDP's success at the polls appears to have 
come at the expense of the traditional opposition parties. 
 
2009 National Assembly Election Results 
 
Party    Votes     Percent 
--------------------------------- 
SWAPO    602,580    75.3% 
RDP       90,556    11.3% 
DTA       25,393     3.1% 
NUDO      24,422     3.0% 
UDF       19,489     2.4% 
APP       10,795     1.4% 
RP         6,541     0.8% 
COD        5,375     0.7% 
SWANU      4,989     0.6% 
MAG        4,718     0.6% 
DPN        1,942     0.2% 
NDMC       1,770     0.2% 
NDP        1,187     0.2% 
 
WINDHOEK 00000453  002 OF 003 
 
 
CP           810     0.1% 
================================ 
Total    800,567 
 
 
--------------------------------- 
National Assembly Seat Allocation 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Despite its strong showing, due to the formula that 
dictates how seats in the National Assembly are allocated, 
SWAPO will actually have one less seat (54 instead of 55) in 
the parliament.  Nevertheless, it will retain its two-thirds 
majority.  The RDP and APP will enter Parliament for the 
first time with eight and one seats respectively.  The COD 
will lose four of its five seats (only retaining one seat). 
The United Democratic Front (UDF) and Namibian Unity 
Democratic Organization (NUDO) had three seats in the 
National Assembly, but both lost a seat and will be down to 
two members of parliament each come March 2010.  The 
Democratic Turnhalle Alliance (DTA), the dominant opposition 
party at Namibia's independence, which has four seats in the 
current National Assembly, continued its decline and will 
lose half of its representation in the next National 
Assembly.  The Monitor Action Group (MAG) which had one seat 
in the National Assembly, will be absent from the next 
parliament.  The South West Africa National Union (SWANU) 
party, one of Namibia's oldest political parties, picked up a 
seat although it only registered 0.45 percent of the vote. 
 
New National Assembly Seats 
 
Party      2004   2009  Loss/Gain 
-------------------------------- 
APP         X       1         1 
COD         5       1        -4 
DTA         4       2        -2 
MAG         1       0        -1 
NUDO        3       2        -1 
RDP         X       8         8 
RP          1       1         0 
SWANU       0       1         1 
SWAPO      55      54        -1 
UDF         3       2        -1 
================================= 
Total      72      72 
 
 
Women will only make up 22 percent of the seats in the new 
National Assembly, down from 33 percent.  This falls well 
below the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) goal 
of 50 percent.  This percentage could change, however, 
depending on whom the President selects to fill 6 non-voting 
parliamentary seats. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Party Performance Around the Country 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU)  SWAPO performed well across the country.  SWAPO 
beat all the other parties in every region and won 50 percent 
or more of the vote in 10 out of the 13 regions.  Only in 
Omaheke, Hardap, and Kunene regions did SWAPO not win an 
absolute majority.  In those regions, NUDO and UDF - parties 
that have historically seen regional but not national support 
- performed well as expected.  SWAPO polled 90 percent or 
better in Oshikoto, Oshana , Ohangwena and Omusati regions. 
In Omusati, SWAPO garnered 97.3 percent of the vote.  RDP was 
not able to make significant in-roads into these four regions 
which is the heartland of the Owambo, Namibia's largest 
ethnic group. The Owambo people are considered SWAPO's 
strongest base of support.  Hidipo Hamutenya, RDP's candidate 
for President, previously a senior SWAPO official, is himself 
Owambo (Ovakwanyama clan, the same as President Pohamba), so 
RDP supporters had hoped their party would do well in 
"Owamboland." 
 
--------------------------------- 
Opposition Protesting the Results 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU)  All but three opposition parties have joined in a 
movement to contest the election results and are taking the 
ECN to court.  The unusually long time it took the ECN to 
count and verify the votes (over six days rather the normal 
four) has led opposition parties to suspect there was some 
form of manipulation of the election results.  RDP senior 
official Libolly Haufiku told the Ambassador that the joint 
opposition case would be heard by the High Court on December 
¶11.  Haufiku claims that the RDP has proof and witnesses that 
can testify to massive rigging at election verification 
centers (where polling stations take their results after 
 
WINDHOEK 00000453  003 OF 003 
 
 
counting) and during subsequent audits.  Opposition parties 
will hold peaceful demonstrations throughout the country on 
December 11, Haufiku asserted. 
 
------------- 
Voter Turnout 
------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Voter turnout was down by 2.3 percent nationwide, 
with sizable declines in eight of Namibia's 13 regions. 
However, in the SWAPO strongholds of Oshikoto, Oshana, 
Ohangwena and Omusati turnout increased sharply, a total of 
over 38,000 votes.  SWAPO actually received over 17,300 less 
votes than in 2004, but because of lower turnout nationwide, 
its performance (percentage-wise) remained the same. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Opposition parties may point to the much higher 
vote counts in SWAPO strongholds as evidence of election 
manipulation.  Rumors are that SWAPO may have paid and 
registered Angolans to vote on its behalf in Oshikoto, 
Oshana, Ohangwena and Omusati regions.  Although a few 
Angolans were found with voter identification cards prior to 
the elections, and some voters could have voted twice due to 
some irregularities, it is not clear whether these issues 
will form part of the opposition's court case.  Since Namibia 
allows people to cast their votes anywhere in the nation, it 
is conceivable to have large swings in voting patterns. 
Furthermore, some increases in turnout could be explained by 
shifts in demographics in certain regions and constituencies. 
  Nevertheless, the differences in voter turnout may receive 
closer analytical scrutiny. 
 
¶9. (SBU)  Post had 16 people observe polling stations in six 
regions on November 27-28.  From our observation, voting took 
place in a peaceful environment.  While we noticed some 
irregularities during the voting, we do not know the 
magnitude of the occurrences.  Certainly there was some 
intimidation in the lead up to the elections, and there was 
not a level playing field with regard to access to the media. 
 While regional bodies such as SADC and the African Union 
(AU) were quick to call the elections free, fair and 
transparent, we now have to wait and see what information 
opposition parties present to the courts.  Hopefully the 
courts will reach a quick decision before Namibia heads into 
its traditional "Festive Season," when most of the country 
shuts down from December 15 to January 15. End Comment. 
MATHIEU