VZCZCXRO6534
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHWD #0441/01 3371433
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 031433Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0889
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WINDHOEK 000441 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2019 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM WA
SUBJECT: NAMIBIANS GROW TIRED OF ELECTION DELAYS 
 
REF: A. WINDHOEK 433 
     ¶B. WINDHOEK 401 
     ¶C. WINDHOEK 377 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Dennise Mathieu for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary. As vote tabulation enters its sixth day, 
Namibians are asking when the final results from the November 
27 and 28 general election will be announced.  The Electoral 
Commission of Namibia (ECN) has confirmed results from 47 of 
107 constituencies.  Those figures show the South West 
African People's Organization (SWAPO) party enjoying a 
comfortable lead in both the contest for National Assembly 
seats and that for the presidency.  The ECN is facing harsh 
criticism for the delay, and opposition parties are muttering 
that legal action may be necessary if rumors of inappropriate 
recounts and mistakes prove true.  End summary. 
 
---------------- 
Official Results 
---------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) As of December 3, the ECN has posted final results 
for 47 of Namibia's 107 constituencies.   Of the 
approximately 327,700 votes that have been counted and 
verified, SWAPO maintains a commanding lead with 77 percent 
of those votes.  The young Rally for Democracy and Progress 
(RDP) is performing below expectations (ref A) with just over 
nine percent of the vote so far.  The rest of the 12 
opposition parties are trailing with a combined 14 percent of 
the vote.  The ECN has confirmed at least some results from 
all but one of Namibia's 13 regions (Otjozondjupa).  Of 
those,  SWAPO's strongest performance is in its traditional 
base in the northern region of Omusati (97.3 percent of the 
vote).  Its weakest performance is in Omaheke (36.8 percent 
of the vote), where, notably, it still has won more votes 
than any other single party.  The RDP's best results are 
coming from the Hardap and Karas regions in the south, where 
it has garnered approximately 28 percent of the vote in the 
constituencies that have reported.  The UDF party, which 
draws most of its support from the Damara ethnic group, thus 
far is outpacing SWAPO in its stronghold of Kunene (43.4 
percent), and the Herero-based NUDO party is doing well in 
its old stomping ground of Omaheke (32.6 percent). 
 
¶3. (C) Missing from the list of top contenders is the current 
official opposition party (that with the most opposition 
seats in the National Assembly), the Congress of Democrats 
(COD).  That the COD is performing poorly (.65  percent) 
comes as no shock.  The party suffered a well-publicized 
schism in 2009, which landed the COD in court and nearly 
bankrupted its coffers (ref B).  Nevertheless, COD Spokesman 
Natji Tjirera told Poloff he was "devastated" by just how bad 
the results are.  "We will be lucky to get even one seat," he 
admitted. 
 
-------------------- 
More Ire for the ECN 
-------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The ECN, which was heavily criticized during the 
pre-election phase and during the polling for providing 
inconsistent information and bungling procedures, is bearing 
the blame for the delays in the counting and announcement of 
results (ref C).  Namibians are accustomed to waiting for 
election results; in recent national elections, the ECN has 
released final results after four or five days.  However, 
with numbers still trickling in on Day 6, some are 
speculating that the slow pace is a sign of trouble.  On 
December 2, the electoral body made a radio appeal to its 
staff, imploring them to report to the head office, while a 
team from headquarters urgently flew to four northern regions 
to help verify and recount ballots.  The ECN held a briefing 
with political parties shortly thereafter to explain the 
situation.  DTA Member of Parliament McHenry Venaani told the 
press the opposition was unhappy with the news.  He noted 
that the Electoral Amendment Act does not provide many 
details on how the verification process should be carried 
out.  According to Venaani's interpretation, once the 
verification process is completed, verification and counting 
should not be repeated.  "Reopening ballot boxes and taking 
out ballot papers; that is not good," he said.  (Note: ECN 
Deputy Director of Operations Theo Mujoro told Poloff that 
ballots would be counted only once-- at the polling stations 
immediately following the closing of the polls-- and not 
recounted at verification centers or at the ECN's results 
center. End note.) 
 
¶5. (U) The RDP has also complained about discrepancies in the 
verification process.  On December 2, RDP Director of 
Administration Libolly Haufiku expressed his party's outrage 
that the ECN had not adequately trained its staff in counting 
and verification procedures.  Moreover, he was worried that 
 
WINDHOEK 00000441  002 OF 002 
 
 
the numbers posted outside the polling stations and reported 
by RDP party agents who witnessed the initial counts on 
November 28 and 29, in some instances did not match the ECN's 
official results.  He cited several cases, among them a 
constituency in the Caprivi region, where SWAPO first had 
4000 votes but only 2000 after a recount.  "How many more 
such mistakes have been made?  This is a mess." Haufiku told 
the press. 
 
¶6. (C) The press reports that six opposition parties have 
joined forces to record irregularities and discrepancies, 
which they plan to forward to their attorneys.  RDP insider 
Toiva Nambinga told Poloff on December 2 that his party was 
seriously considering challenging the ECN in court. 
 
------- 
Turnout 
------- 
 
¶7. (C) The ECN has not released a final figure of the number 
of voters who participated in the elections.  In recent 
months, the ECN had announced several different numbers of 
registered voters (ref C).  On December 1, Mujoro told Poloff 
that there were most likely 1.18 million eligible voters, and 
he estimated that somewhere between 700,000 and 800,000 
Namibians voted on November 27 and 28. 
 
--------- 
Conclusion 
---------- 
 
¶8. (C) The delays in announcing the results are troubling, 
but thus far there is no concrete evidence pointing to 
electoral fraud.  Most likely, this is a case of ineptitude, 
rather than widespread rigging.  It was clear long before 
voting day that the opposition was prepared to mount legal 
challenges.  Many of the parties have been itching for a 
fight with the ECN for months, and the election body has done 
little to inspire confidence in the aftermath of the vote. 
Even with less than half of the returns confirmed, it seems 
certain that SWAPO's presidential candidate, incumbent 
President Hifikepunye Pohamba, will be re-elected and likely 
that SWAPO will retain its two-thirds majority in the 
National Assembly, which gives it the power to amend the 
constitution. 
MATHIEU