VZCZCXRO3844
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHTRO #1035/01 3570941
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 230941Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5625
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI 6175

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TRIPOLI 001035 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/MAG; STATE PLEASE PASS TO USTR PAUL BURKHEAD; 
COMMERCE FOR ITA NATE MASON; PARIS AND LONDON FOR NEA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  12/23/2019 
TAGS: PGOV ECON LY EFIN EPET EINV
SUBJECT: LIBYAN PRIVATE SECTOR LOOKS TO SAIF AL-ISLAM FOR STABILITY 
 
TRIPOLI 00001035  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Gene Cretz, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy Tripoli, 
U.S. Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
¶1.  (C)  Summary: Several leading Libyan businessmen view Saif 
al-Islam al-Qadhafi's new role as "General Coordinator" of Libya 
as a positive development.  They believe his appointment will 
ensure stability and continuity, ending the infighting of recent 
years.  They believe Saif al-Islam is a logical choice to lead 
Libya due to his western education and pro-reform agenda, and 
note that Saif has been groomed for this position for several 
years.  He reportedly has a system in place to receive daily 
report on his siblings.  Well-connected contacts believe Saif's 
new position will be formalized in mid-January.  They are 
hopeful that, once formalized, his new role will end the recent 
chaos in Tripoli's commercial scene, which one regime insider 
attributed to the political uncertainty following Saif''s 
nomination as General Coordinator in early October.  If Saif 
does try to implement reform, he is likely to face resistance 
from Libya's entrenched elite who have benefited from a business 
environment based on tribal ties and proximity to the regime. 
End summary. 
 
LIBYAN BUSINESSMEN THINK SAIF IS A GOOD CHOICE~ 
 
¶2.  (C)  Several prominent Libyan businessmen positively view 
Saif al-Islam's new position as they believe it will promote 
stability and ensure continuity after Muammar Qadhafi is no 
longer on the scene.  In a recent meeting between emboff and 
members of a leading Benghazi-based family with significant 
business interests throughout Libya, the family said the formal 
naming of Saif as a "General Coordinator" of Social Committees 
could create stability after the past few years of uncertainty 
and infighting amongst the Leader's children.  According to the 
family's patriarch, the actual title of "Coordinator" is 
"meaningless."  He said one could see a genesis for the position 
as far back as the late 1990's when the regime was faced with 
many anti-Qadhafi plots emanating from various tribes in Libya. 
In response, the Leader created "Peoples Social Committees" to 
deal with the "trouble-makers" within the tribal structure. 
This family believes Saif's appointment to this new position 
will help the Libyan Government prevent the rise of some sort of 
Muslim Brotherhood extremist group, or tribal infighting in 
support of different other al-Qadhafi siblings. 
 
¶3.  (C)  Another prominent Libyan businessman said that Muammar 
al-Qadhafi had appointed Saif al-Islam to this new position in 
order to ensure continuity for when he is gone from the scene. 
Saif was "the logical choice" because he is well-educated, 
well-respected, and is reform-minded.  In his view, Saif is 
"good for the future of Libya" since he is interested in 
attracting foreign investment to Libya and creating a modern 
Libya inspired by Dubai's model. 
 
~AND BETTER THAN THE ALTERNATIVES 
 
¶4.  (C)  Of the Leader's seven sons and one daughter, Libyan 
businessmen prefer Saif al-Islam as he is more of a known 
quantity.  One businessman commented `the devil you know is 
better than the one you don't know.'  According to one 
businessman, Saif is better-prepared to replace his father as he 
has positioned himself for such a leadership role for several 
years and reportedly gets daily reports on the activities of all 
of his siblings.  As for al-Qadhafi's other son and National 
Security Advisor, Muatassim, he characterized him as 
"blood-thirsty" and violent.  The rest of Muammar al-Qadhafi's 
children are simply "incompetent" and only interested in lavish 
life-styles. 
 
¶5.  (C)  Members of the Benghazi-based family believe Saif is 
well-known to the average Libyan due to his visibility in the 
media and his speeches to Libyans, especially youth.  They echo 
the comments of a Tripoli businessman (cited above) that the 
elder Qadhafi had long been preparing Saif al-Islam for his new 
role as "General Coordinator," by sending him to the West for 
his studies.  Other Qadhafi sons have not lived or studied in 
the West.  The head of the business family believes Saif should 
now "get rid of his immature friends," who continue to exert a 
bad influence on him.  A relative of his commented that many 
Libyans perceive the U.S. to favor al-Qadhafi's other son, 
Muatassim, citing his recent trips to the U.S. He noted Libyans 
did not really know Muatassim, i.e. what his personality is, or 
even what he looked like, perhaps because as a "security 
person," Muatassim was rarely seen by the Libyan public. 
 
WILL SAIF TAKE THE JOB? 
 
¶6.  (C)  Although Saif has not officially "accepted" his new 
position as "General Coordinator,"  this head of the prominent 
Benghazi family believes Saif has given his tacit acceptance. 
 
TRIPOLI 00001035  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
He noted that in the past, Saif has always publicly stated his 
views on issues, such as when he said he would step down from 
public life in August 2008.  This time, however, he has not said 
anything about the new position, which our contacts interpret to 
mean Saif has agreed to the new role. 
 
¶7.  (C) Contacts in Tripoli, including the well-connected son of 
one of the Free Officers, those officers who have been with 
Qadhafi from the beginning, have told us that Saif is expected 
to formally accept his new position around the middle of 
January.  The Free Officer's son told us that Saif al-Islam has 
spent the last two months consolidating "his team," identifying 
key advisors who will be able to promote his agenda.  This 
contact  believes that Saif's vision for Libya is strongly 
pro-reform and pro-Western. 
 
HOPE THAT SAIF CAN CREATE ORDER OUT OF A CHAOTIC URBAN 
DEVELOPMENT SCENE 
 
¶8.  (C)  Libya's small private sector is hopeful that Saif will 
be able to impose some order to the chaos and uncertainty that 
has wracked Tripoli's business environment in recent months.  As 
a result of construction projects and arbitrary closings of 
businesses, one major department store was recently closed for 
several weeks, along with 31 other shops along the popular 
shopping street of Gagaresh.  The owner of the store estimated 
this affected 2,000 employees of these shops, along with their 
families due to lost wages.  He said the ostensible reason the 
Tripoli municipality gave was that the entire area was not a 
"commercial zone" and so no shops were permitted outside of a 
small section of downtown Tripoli according to a rule enacted in 
¶1978.  He noted that the 1978 law is totally out-of-date and 
many shops have sprung up in response to the growth of Tripoli 
suburbs.  These shops have permits to operate and their owners 
pay taxes so it does not make sense that they would be shut 
down. 
 
¶9.  (C) Another businessman noted that several shopping malls 
are being built by Libyan government joint ventures but that no 
malls are yet finished.  He wondered why there was a rush, then, 
to reduce competition from shops outside the malls?  He pointed 
out that shops in another area of Tripoli, Souk Talat, had also 
suddenly been torn down but that there had been no thought to 
relocating these businesses.  As a result, many small business 
owners, primarily in the car parts and hardware businesses, have 
seen their livelihoods disappear.  Lastly, a lack of 
coordination among the various commercial development projects 
means that the developers for one shopping mall were unaware 
that another mall was being built only one kilometer away from 
their property.  The son of one the Free Officers, himself a 
business owner, attributed the recent commercial turmoil and the 
apparent wanton destruction gripping Tripoli to the overall 
state of political uncertainty following Saif al-Islam's 
appointment as General Coordinator in October.  He believes the 
situation will improve once Saif's position is formalized. 
 
¶10.  (C)  Comment: While the majority of the prominent 
businessmen we surveyed were hopeful about Saif al-Islam's 
prospects to effect real change, others are less sanguine. 
Although he is western-educated and has a history of advocating 
for reform, Saif al-Islam also is a product of a highly corrupt 
system that has been in place for 40 years.  If/when he does try 
to implement political and economic reforms, he undoubtedly will 
face significant challenges from entrenched elites who have 
benefited from a business environment based on tribal ties and 
proximity to the regime.  It may be that his visible appearance 
at the planeside scene where convicted Lockerbie bomber Abdel 
Megrahi  was welcomed home reflects Saif's  (and perhaps his 
father's) realization that these interests need to be taken care 
of, even at the cost of sometimes alienating Libya's Western 
interests.  End comment. 
CRETZ