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E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EPET ENRG EMIN EINV EIND ETRD ELAB KHIV SF
SUBJECT: South Africa: Minerals and Energy Newsletter "THE ASSAY" - 
Issue 10, November 2009 
 
This cable is not for Internet distribution. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Introduction:  The purpose of this newsletter, initiated in 
January 2004, is to highlight minerals and energy developments in 
South Africa.  This includes trade and investment as well as supply. 
 South Africa hosts world-class deposits of gold, diamonds, platinum 
group metals, chromium, zinc, titanium, vanadium, iron, manganese, 
antimony, vermiculite, zircon, alumino-silicates, fluorspar and 
phosphate rock, and is a major exporter of steam coal.  South Africa 
is also a leading producer and exporter of ferroalloys of chromium, 
vanadium, and manganese.  The information contained in the 
newsletters is based on public sources and does not reflect the 
views of the United States Government.  End introduction. 
 
¶2. (SBU) CONTENTS: 
 
HOT NEWS 
Eskom's funding conundrum 
South Africa could have new nuclear power station by 2020 
 
ENERGY 
Loan for Eskom's Medupi plant 
Eskom road repairs: $1.3 billion 
High coal demand raising prices 
Eskom's World Bank loan application 
 
MINING 
Multinationals team up to explore Karoo basin for shale gas 
Gold Fields 'catching the future' as it unlocks South Deep's 
treasure chest 
Cullinan diamond fetches US$6 million 
Gold hits record highs on firm investor sentiment 
 
 
-------- 
HOT NEWS 
-------- 
 
------------------------- 
Eskom's funding conundrum 
------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) As power utility Eskom emerges from a bruising leader-ship 
battle, in which both CEO Jacob Maroga and Chairman Bobby Godsell 
stepped down, it faces a bigger, more urgent battle: how to crack 
its funding crisis.  Eskom has still not resolved its capacity 
shortfall, which led to sustained load-shedding in early 2008.  The 
power utility has delayed construction of its second new power 
station, Kusile (in Mpumalanga), which is expected to provide 10 
percent of SA's electricity demand.  According to a senior Eskom 
manager, Eskom will decide at a December board meeting how long to 
delay the project.  University of Cape Town's Prof Anton Eberhard 
says: "The Kusile power station will almost certainly have to be 
delayed as Eskom will not be able to pay the contractors."  Pushing 
it back by two to three years from its originally targeted 
commissioning date of 2014 will free up a lot of cash flow, he says. 
 Eskom draws its cash from four main sources: government support, 
bond issues, utility payments from customers and borrowing.  It has 
received R232 billion ($31 billion) from government in loans and 
guarantees; tapped the bond market for R21 billion ($2.8 billion) 
over the past two years; secured $2 billion in loans from the 
African Development Bank; and increased its rates by 31 percent in 
¶2009.  Eskom estimates it can raise a maximum of R40 billion ($5.3 
billion) a year in debt over the next three years, and a total of 
R232 billion ($31 billion) by 2015.  But it needs substantially more 
to cover its R385 billion ($51 billion) expansion plan and rising 
Qto cover its R385 billion ($51 billion) expansion plan and rising 
operating costs. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The National Treasury has confirmed that Eskom cannot look 
to government for any more money or loan guarantees, so tariff 
increases and partial privatization are the only remaining options. 
Eskom has asked for 45 percent tariff hikes each year over the next 
 
PRETORIA 00002474  002 OF 004 
 
 
three years, but this would treble the country's electricity costs. 
After much outrage from every quarter, the utility is re-examining 
its final tariff submission to the National Energy Regulator of 
South Africa (Nersa).  Even if Eskom is granted the 45 percent a 
year increases for three years, it would still be left with a 
significant R30 billion ($4 billion) shortfall in its balance sheet 
by the end of that period.  Raising bonds and loans will help, but 
these will mainly be stopgap or supplementary measures.  The utility 
has approached the World Bank for a $3.75 billion loan ($3 billion 
for the Medupi coal-fired power station; $260 million for renewable 
wind and solar energy; and $490 million for low-carbon energy 
efficiency components). 
 
----------------------------------------- 
South Africa could have new nuclear power 
station by 2020 
----------------------------------------- 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Energy Minister Dipuo Peters said on November 20 that South 
Africa could have a new nuclear power station operational by 2020 
and has an aspiration to add some 20,000 MW of nuclear capacity over 
the coming decades.  However, a specific date for the building of 
the second nuclear power generator would only be set after the 
finalization of an integrated resource plan (IRP), she told 
journalists on the sidelines of a seminar on nuclear energy.  Peters 
noted that the IRP would be finalized after the United Nations 
Framework Convention on Climate Change conference taking place in 
Copenhagen next month.  "We will be releasing the IRP immediately 
after Copenhagen, we will then be finalizing our IRP, and within the 
IRP, you would then have the exact indicator of when South Africa 
would want to see the nuclear plant kicking in."  She added that the 
IRP would be placed before Cabinet in February.  Eskom terminated 
the procurement process for the multibillion rand "Nuclear 1" 
project late last year, after the company's board decided that it 
could not make an investment decision to proceed, owing to financial 
pressures.  Eskom operates South Africa's only nuclear plant, the 
1,800 MW Koeberg station, in the Western Cape. 
 
------ 
ENERGY 
------ 
 
----------------------------- 
Loan for Eskom's Medupi plant 
----------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The African Development Bank (AfDB) said on November 26 
that it had loaned South African State-owned utility Eskom 1,86 
billion ($2.85 billion) to finance the construction of the Medupi 
power project.  The bank said the 4,800 MW Medupi power plant, 
Eskom's first new base-load power plant in more than two decades, 
will significantly boost the energy capacity of South Africa and the 
southern African region.  AfDB president Donald Kaberuka said "South 
Africa's energy problem has been a major impediment to Africa's 
leading economy.  This operation should be seen in the context of 
the bank's ongoing efforts to help Africa bridge the infrastructure 
gap."  Medupi is in South Africa's northern Limpopo Province, and is 
Qgap."  Medupi is in South Africa's northern Limpopo Province, and is 
expected to be commissioned by February 2012. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Eskom road repairs: $1.3 billion 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Power utility Eskom will have to fork out at least R10 
billion ($1.3 billion) for road repairs and construction on the 
network servicing its power stations from now to 2015.  The cost of 
the road repairs is likely to be questioned when Eskom's tariff 
increase application of 45 percent a year for three years is 
considered because road repair is not its responsibility.  In its 
application, Eskom argued that the bad state of some roads was a 
danger to security of supply.  The Democratic Alliance said that a 
 
PRETORIA 00002474  003 OF 004 
 
 
R1 billion ($133 million) upgrade was needed for roads even before 
construction began on Medupi.  The roads bill is a significant cost 
addition to Eskom's build program, for which it has to raise R385 
billion ($51 billion). 
 
------------------------------- 
High coal demand raising prices 
------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Exxaro Resources, South Africa's largest black-controlled, 
diversified mining company, said on November 26 that coal prices 
were likely to rise to between $70 and $75 per ton in 2010 from 
around $65 per ton this year on the back of rising global demand. 
Exxaro's executive general manager for business growth Ernst Venter 
said demand for coal had started to rise on the world market with 
India becoming a major market for steam coal. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Eskom's World Bank loan application 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) South Africa's power utility Eskom expects the World Bank 
to make a decision on a loan program of up to $5 billion in the 
first half of next year.  In early November, the World Bank said on 
its website Eskom had applied for the initial three tranches of the 
loan, amounting to $3.75 billion, to fund projects at its Medupi 
power station as well as renewable energy and low-carbon energy 
efficiency program. 
 
------ 
MINING 
------ 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Multinationals team up to explore Karoo 
basin for shale gas 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) A multinational gas exploration joint venture (JV) 
submitted an "exploration right application" to the Petroleum Agency 
South Africa (Pasa) on November 25 for an onshore shale-gas resource 
in the Karoo Basin, situated in the central region of South Africa. 
The participants in the JV include Sasol Petroleum International, a 
subsidiary of JSE-listed Sasol, Statoil ASA of Norway, and 
Chesapeake Energy Corporation of the US.  It is anticipated that the 
application will take 12 months to process.  Pasa, South Africa's 
agency for the promotion of onshore and offshore petroleum 
exploration, is empowered to issue exploration rights for an initial 
period of three years, which are renewable for a maximum of three 
additional two-year periods.  Should exploration prove successful, 
the JV could move to secure a production right for a period of 30 
years, also renewable.  The Karoo basin program would focus on the 
natural gas produced from shale, a type of sedimentary rock formed 
from clay.  Shale gas has become an increasingly important source of 
natural gas in the US and other countries, and interest has also 
grown in Canada and Europe.  The partners noted in a joint statement 
that the Karoo basin has unproven shale gas potential and 
significant exploration efforts will be necessary to assess the 
resource. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Gold Fields 'catching the future' as it 
unlocks South Deep's treasure chest 
--------------------------------------- 
Q--------------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Gold Fields executive vice president and operational head 
Vishnu Pillay says South Deep mine is "unlike any other operation in 
South Africa.  It's fundamentally going to change the way South 
Africans mine at depth."  Gold Fields acquired the mine from Western 
Areas in December 2006 and South Deep's next key milestone date is 
December 2014.  South Deep, less than an hour's drive from the 
centre of Johannesburg, has the world's deepest single hoisting 
 
PRETORIA 00002474  004 OF 004 
 
 
shaft that descends to a depth of 3,000 m.  Out are the hand-held 
drills that have characterized South Africa's deep-level gold mining 
for more than 100 years, and in are big jumbo drills to provide high 
tonnage.  While a conventional South African mine of its size may 
employ 10,000 people or more to do the South Deep job, the fully 
mechanized operation is able to make do with 4,500.  All efforts at 
South Deep dovetail with the firm stand that Gold Fields CEO Nick 
Holland has taken: "If we can't mine safely, we won't mine at all." 
Pillay says "What South Deep does is prove that we can run 
deep-level mining operations without having fatal accidents." 
 
------------------------------------- 
Cullinan diamond fetches US$6 million 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Petra Diamonds reported that a 168 carat white Cullinan 
diamond had sold for $6.28 million.  The diamond, regarded as being 
of exceptional color and quality, fetched about $37,380 a carat when 
it was sold to an undisclosed buyer on November 26.  It was 
recovered in the same production series as three other special 
diamonds: a 507.55 carat white diamond, which has not been offered 
for sale yet, as the company considers the best route to market in 
order to maximize value; and two diamonds of 58.50 and 53.30 carats, 
which were sold in November for a total of $2.8 million.  Cullinan 
mine has produced more than 300 diamonds of over 100 carats and a 
quarter of all the world's diamonds over 400 carats. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Petra Diamonds announced on November 26 that it plans to 
increase its ownership in Cullinan diamond mine from 37 percent to 
74 percent, saying that it has entered into an option agreement with 
Al Rajhi Holdings that would allow it to acquire Al Rajhi's 37 
percent interest in the mine.  Petra also confirmed its intention to 
undertake an equity fundraising. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Gold hits record highs on firm investor 
sentiment 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶14. (SBU) Gold rose to a record high, above $1,175 per ounce, on 
November 25, based on solid investor sentiment and expectations of 
more gold buying by the public sector.  A recent purchase of 200 
tons of gold by India's central bank sparked a rally that lifted the 
precious metal's value to successive record highs with it gaining 
about 12 percent in the month of November alone.  The purchase was 
part of a planned sale of 403 tons by the International Monetary 
Fund.  Russia, Sri Lanka and Mauritius have also announced gold 
acquisitions.  Chief analyst at Fujitomi Co Ltd in Tokyo Kazuhiko 
Saito said investors continue to believe that other central banks 
will buy gold.  "Gold is being bought even when the euro falls 
against the dollar, and what we are seeing is an active flow of 
funds," Saito said.  He added that gold could face a correction, 
given the rapid pace at which its price has climbed.  Traders say 
investors are also attracted to gold, seen as a hedge against 
Qinvestors are also attracted to gold, seen as a hedge against 
inflation, which erodes the value of paper assets. 
 
GIPS