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INFO ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE
NATO EU COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000909 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF CA
SUBJECT: CANADA TO SUSPEND PARLIAMENT, AGAIN 
 
REF: 08 OTTAWA 1516; OTTAWA 944; OTTAWA 954 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary. Canada's Parliament will be suspended until 
March 2010, reminiscent of a similar but shorter suspension  one 
year ago.  The Conservatives' argument is that the government will 
have additional time to concentrate on the "next phase" of its 
economic recovery plan.  There will be no Parliamentary committee 
meetings, notably those focused on the treatment of Afghan 
detainees.   All pending legislation (apart from a few private 
members' bills) dies and must be re-introduced.  The move will 
ensure that the government has clear political sailing through the 
2010 Winter Olympics.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
¶2.  (U)  As had been rumored only very recently. Prime Minister 
Stephen Harper on December 30 asked Governor General Michaelle Jean 
to "prorogue" (suspend) Parliament until March, rather than having 
the House of Commons return on January 25 according to its original 
schedule.  (The Senate was due to return on January 26.)  The 
Governor General is expected to accede to the Prime Minister's 
request.  The House of Commons will return in a new session on 
March 3 to hear another "Speech from the Throne," in which the 
Governor General will lay out the government's new agenda.  The 
government then plans to introduce the 2010 budget on March 4. 
Votes to approve the Throne Speech as well as the budget are, by 
definition, votes of confidence - if the Conservatives lose either 
vote, there would then be a new election. 
 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  In rather different circumstances (in which the ruling 
Conservatives were on the verge of losing a vote of confidence), PM 
Harper had in December 2008 successfully sought a similar 
prorogation (ref a), as he had also done in September 2007.  In 
September 2008, PM Harper had convinced the Governor General to 
call a new federal election, calling Parliament "dysfunctional." 
 
 
 
¶4.  (U)  According to the Prime Minister's spokesman Dmitri Soudas, 
the purpose of this prorogation is to give the government time to 
move to the "next phase" of its economic recovery plan and to 
prepare the new budget.   He described the move as "routine" and 
pointedly insisted that the House of Commons technically only will 
lose 22 sitting days.  He highlighted that the government intended 
fully to implement its economic action plan and to create a 
"roadmap to balance budgets" again.   He also noted that, due to 
Senate mandatory retirements (at age 75), the Prime Minister will 
early in 2010 be able to appoint five new Senators, leaving the 
Conservatives for the first time ever with  a plurality in the 
Senate, which the Liberals have always dominated.  (The 
Conservatives will not have an actual majority until at least 
2011.)  Soudas commented that "Michael Ignatieff's 
Liberal-dominated Senate has very often blocked, opposed, and 
gutted" key legislation, notably on product safety and additional 
anti-crime measures.  He added that the Conservatives would also 
turn in the next Parliamentary session to long-desired Senate 
reform measures, including fixed terms and elections.  (Senators 
are currently appointed by the Governor General, upon the advice of 
the Prime Minister.) 
 
 
 
¶5.  (U)  Opposition Members of Parliament quickly howled in 
protest, with Liberal house leader Ralph Goodale calling the move 
"beyond arrogant, almost despotic" and a "shocking insult to 
democracy."    (Liberal leader Ignatieff has yet to make a public 
comment.)   New Democratic Party house leader Libby Davies called 
prorogation a "political scam."   There has been widespread 
speculation in the media and among MPs that the Conservatives' key 
goal was to block additional committee hearings on allegations of 
the abuse of Afghan prisoners whom the Canadian Forces had 
transferred to Afghan authorities (ref b).    The PM's spokesman 
charged that the opposition only wanted to "focus on events from 
2006" even though the opposition MPs had been "unable to prove any 
wrongdoing by Canadian military, diplomats, or the Canadian 
Forces."   In contrast, he underscored, the government intends to 
focus on the economy. 
 
 
 
¶6.  (U)  A new Nanos poll reinforced the Conservatives' - and Prime 
Minister Stephen Harper's personal - clear lead over the 
opposition.   Among decided voters, the Conservatives have 39.5% 
 
OTTAWA 00000909  002 OF 002 
 
 
support, with the Liberals at 30.2% and the NDP at 18.7%.  In terms 
of trustworthiness, PM Harper trumped the Liberals' Ignatieff 29.3% 
to 10.9%; on competence, PM Harper was at 35.3% versus Ignatieff's 
13.3%; and, on vision, PM Harper's 30% to Ignatieff's 14.8%. 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Comment:  The prorogation will likely provoke little 
public response beyond Ottawa and the grumblings of opposition MPs 
in their ridings (districts).  The holiday recess is usually a 
quiet time in Canadian politics, and the February 2010 Winter 
Olympics will captivate the public far more than any Parliamentary 
hearings might have done.  The Conservatives will lose momentum on 
approximately three dozen pieces of legislation, but they had 
already succeeded in passing key bills on the economy and 
unemployment insurance before the Christmas break began (ref c). 
Arguably, the Conservatives have gained very little by this 
prorogation, apart from avoiding close-up sniping from the 
opposition.  However,  there has been no particular political cost 
to them in taking this step, which the Conservatives will continue 
to portray as entirely routine (although it is not).  The reality 
for the three opposition parties remains that they are not in a 
very good position to bring the government down and face the 
electorate yet, and so they would have been hamstrung in how far 
they could have gone - or still will be able to go in March - in 
actually opposing this government. 
JACOBSON