VZCZCXRO3710
RR RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHNEH
DE RUEHNE #2408 3350851
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 010851Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8753
INFO RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI 5348
RUEHNEH/AMCONSUL HYDERABAD 1153
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 4558
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 4375

UNCLAS NEW DELHI 002408 
 
SIPDIS 
 
CA/FPP FOR JILL NYSTROM, PLEASE PASS TO DHS 
DS/CR/CFI FOR NICK SABRUNO 
DS/CR/VPAU FOR TIM LONGACRE AND YVETTE COLMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KFRD CVIS CMGT ASEC EAIR ELAB SCUL IN
SUBJECT: VALIDATION STUDY OF NEW DELHI'S M1 APPLICANTS 
 
REF: 08 CHENNAI 227 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY:  New Delhi's Fraud Prevention Unit recently completed a 
validation study of M1 visas issued to applicants during the first 
half of FY08.  Historically, post has viewed M1 applicants as poor 
visa risks, and the refusal rates for M1 visas have been higher than 
those for most other non-immigrant visa (NIV) classes.  The study 
showed a very low overstay rate of 0.4 percent, validating current 
adjudicators' approach to these cases.  The study also shows that 
recent years' rapid rise in the numbers of M1 applicants described 
in reftel has been reversed.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  Post reviewed all 506 M1 visas issued from 1 October 2007 
through 31 March 2008, over 90 percent of which went to flight 
academies.  During that period, the overall refusal rate for the 
visa class was 44 percent for 887 total applications, compared to a 
28 percent overall NIV refusal rate for the same period, and a 32 
percent refusal rate for 1938 total F1 applications.  Of the 506 M1 
issuances, we found only two applicants who appear to be clearly out 
of status -- a 0.4 percent overstay rate.  Of the other 24 who 
appear to still be in the United States, 15 are still in M1 status 
(though several have transferred to a different school since 
arriving), four appear to have received legal permanent residence, 
and four adjusted status to another visa class (three to F1, one to 
H1B).  These results strongly support current adjudication practices 
at post. 
 
¶3.  During the second half of FY08 (the period just after our 
validation study), the overall M1 refusal rate was 36 percent (for 
581 total M1 applications) versus a 29 percent overall NIV refusal 
rate and 23 percent for 5263 F1 applications.  For all of FY2009, 
the M1 refusal rate was again 37 percent (for just 554 total 
applications), versus 37 percent overall and 42 percent for 7874 F1 
applications. 
 
¶4.  COMMENT:  Though Post's M1 refusal rates have declined markedly 
since the period of our study, the numbers of M1 applicants have 
declined at a much faster rate -- reversing the trend of steep rises 
seen across Mission India and described in reftel.  This decline is 
likely tied to the global economic downturn in general and the 
domestic Indian airline industry specifically, which is said to be 
in trouble.  Anecdotal reports from M1 applicants indicate there are 
many fewer piloting opportunities than in recent years.  The good 
news is that for a visa class with a refusal rate higher than that 
of most other categories, an overstay rate of less than 1 percent 
shows that Post's approach to M1 visas is sound. END COMMENT. 
 
ROEMER