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PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHMO #3123/01 3621412
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P 281412Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5807
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 003123 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PMAR PHUM PINR ECON EFIN RS
SUBJECT: CHANGING ROLES IN THE TANDEM LEADERSHIP 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Susan M. Elliott; reasons 1 
.4(b/d). 
 
¶1. (C) Recent changes in the public messages and actions of 
President Medvedev have led to increased uncertainty among 
regional authorities and bureaucrats.  Medvedev's recent 
decisions to dismiss officials in response to public outcries 
over the Perm nightclub tragedy and remove prison officials 
implicated in the death of Sergey Magnitskiy is a contrast to 
Putin's professed reluctance to sack people.  Some observers 
are beginning to attribute Medvedev's decisive actions as a 
change in the vertical power structure of the Tandem.  While 
the tone and substance of public pronouncements may be 
changing, the key themes in the coordinated messages of both 
Medvedev and Putin remain relatively the same. End Summary. 
 
 
¶2. (C) In recent weeks, prominent political observers have 
commented on modifications to the division of labor between 
President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin. Medvedev has 
mainly concentrated on matters under his control, especially 
foreign policy.  Putin has tended to the economy, broadly 
defined, including the interests of major state corporations 
such as Gazprom. Exceptions to this division involved Putin 
more than Medvedev, notably Putin's personal involvement in 
the Russia-Georgia war.  Pundits have observed that the 
tandem's division of labor is changing.  Medvedev spends time 
on issues that have in the past been the proviso of the PM, 
and vice versa. Improved bilateral relations with the US have 
strengthened Medvedev's credibility in the foreign policy 
arena. 
 
¶3. (C) Since the September printing of his article "Russia 
Forward!", Medvedev has changed, at least rhetorically, the 
national debate to a forward-looking assessment of Russia's 
long-term problems.  Prior to this, Prime Minister Putin took 
the lead on proposing changes to the economic and social 
systems.  Many experts, however, downplay Medvedev's ability 
to implement reforms to a system that serves the interests of 
elites, including Medvedev and Putin themselves. 
 
¶4. (C) While it does not appear that the Tandem leadership is 
contemplating radical change, the national and regional 
bureaucracies are responding to the new signals they are 
receiving from Putin and Medvedev. Tatyana Stanovaya of the 
Center for Political Technologies told us December 21 that 
several recent developments have left regional elites 
confused.  Medvedev's swift dismissals of Perm oblast 
officials following the night club fire was consistent with 
his propensity to sack officials for incompetence.  Stanovaya 
cited another example of mixed signals -- the dispute between 
the Kremlin and the White House over tax legislation under 
consideration by the Duma. The rejection of proposals from 
Medvedev's economic advisor Arkadiy Dvorkovich in favor of 
White House proposals, she contended, demonstrated that 
regional elites cannot count on the Kremlin to get them what 
they need.  This dissonance has led regional officials to 
carefully consider how to respond to orders from the Kremlin. 
 They realize that failures can lead to loss of position, but 
successes may not translate into rewards. 
 
¶5. (C) In spite of his public pledges to fight corruption, 
few people believe Medvedev will be successful in reducing 
corruption. The ongoing conflict between General Prosecutor 
(GP) Yuriy Chaika and Investigative Committee (SK) Chief 
Sergey Bastrykhin flared again before Christmas with the GP's 
dismissal of an SK Moscow-level official.  Bastrykhin, an 
ally of Putin, successfully defended his subordinate, 
compelling Medvedev-ally Chaika to back off.  The daily 
newspaper "Kommersant" described this as a clear loss for 
Chaika, further muddying the signals to bureaucrats 
throughout the country as to how effective Medvedev will be 
in the implementation of his anti-corruption ideas. 
 
 
¶6. (C) Stanovaya and "New Times" editor Yevgeniya Albats 
speculated that the mixed messages were leading to government 
gridlock. Foundation for Effective Politics expert Pavel 
Danilin, however, attributed this process to normal 
governance disagreements present in any democratic system. 
Danilin said that he and his boss, Kremlin-insider Gleb 
Pavlovskiy, perceive no major differences between Medvedev 
and Putin, only minor policy disputes between the staffs of 
the two leaders.  He predicted that an amicable split in the 
tandem will come, but much closer to the 2012 presidential 
elections. The two are functioning well together and continue 
to exercise complete political and executive control.  During 
 
MOSCOW 00003123  002 OF 002 
 
 
a televised interview on December 24, Medvedev said his 
relationship with Putin remains "friendly" and will not 
change. While there are undoubtedly differences in the tone 
and substance of public pronouncements, it is also clear that 
key themes in the messages of both Medvedev and Putin are 
well coordinated. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. (C) In recent weeks liberal commentators have rescinded 
some of their previous criticism of Medvedev, citing his 
decisive steps in removing prison officials implicated in the 
death of the lawyer Sergey Magnitskiy and firing officials 
responsible for fire safety in Perm. No one discerns any 
significant or widening policy gaps between Medvedev and 
Putin.  Rather, their good cop/bad cop coordination seems to 
be working at the national level, with their public approval 
rating remaining high.  For regional bureaucrats accustomed 
to paying more attention to decisions from the White House, 
Medvedev has shaken things up and caused regional officials 
to rethink their personnel and administrative calculations. 
That seems exactly what he intended -- to improve his image 
as a decisive leader and strengthen his own longer-term 
political ambitions. 
Rubin