VZCZCXRO2000
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHMB #0352 3551504
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 211504Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY MBABANE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3826
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS MBABANE 000352 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S (MHARRIS) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ELAB PREL PHUM WZ
SUBJECT: FINANCE MINISTER'S "TORNADO OF TAXATION" IRRESPONSIBLE, MAY 
LEAD TO VIOLENCE, ACCORDING TO LABOR LEADER JAN SITHOLE 
 
REF: MBABANE 339 
 
¶1.   SUMMARY:  According to former Swaziland Federation of Trade 
Unions (SFTU) General Secretary Jan Sithole, the recent Swazi 
Finance Minister's taxation proposals to close a revenue gap were 
"irresponsible."  In response to a drop in Southern Africa Customs 
Union (SACU) revenues, which currently finance over 60 percent of 
Swaziland's budget, the Minister proposed taxing cattle or freezing 
public servant wages, something the former General Secretary said 
would result in widespread unrest prompting a violent government 
crackdown.  Sithole indicated to PolOff that anger is building in 
the country, and expectations for multi-party democracy will 
increase pressure before the 2013 elections.  He recommended using 
international leaders respected by King Mswati III, such as former 
Mozambican President Joaquim Chissano, to motivate the King to enact 
reforms before it was too late.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  On December 18, former SFTU General Secretary Jan Sithole, who 
stepped down after 25 years as general secretary in October, met 
with PolOff to discuss labor issues and the impact a decline in the 
Swazi economy is having on political developments.  He emphasized 
that Minister of Finance Majozi Sithole's (no relation) recent 
taxation proposals to close a revenue gap were irresponsible and 
would lead to violence if carried out.  In response to a drop in 
Southern African Customs Union (SACU) revenues, which currently 
finance over 60 percent of Swaziland's budget, the Minister proposed 
taxing cattle or freezing public servant wages.  The former labor 
union leader, who was detained by police multiple times during his 
tenure as Secretary General, said he would expect government to 
react to the resulting unrest with violence and further 
suppression. 
 
¶3.  Even without a "tornado of taxation" sparking anti-government 
sentiment, Sithole believes that anger is building up in the country 
and that demands for multi-party democracy will increase pressure on 
the government as the 2013 elections near. 
 
¶4.  Sithole recommended that the embassy continue with its efforts 
to pressure the government in private, indicating that we would lose 
any gains if we were too "loud," and suggested that the U.S. focus 
on pushing government towards dialogue with voices of dissent. 
Regarding the role that the International Labor Organization (ILO) 
has played in prodding Swaziland to reform, he said that ILO's 
statements and inclusion of Swaziland in its "special paragraph" 
could have a positive snowball effect if other governments take up 
the refrain. 
 
¶5.  King Mswati III, Sithole indicated, enjoys unparalleled wealth 
and power, and therefore would need a lot of outside pressure to 
bring about political change.  He recommended recruitment of 
international and regional leaders the King respected, such as 
former Mozambican President Joaquim Chissano, to encourage the King 
to engage in reform. 
 
¶6.  COMMENT: Sithole's views on economic developments driving a 
political crisis track statements by a member of the royal family in 
reftel.  Both discussed the need for civic education and that King 
Mswati III will not move toward political reform unless he can be 
convinced reform is better for him personally, as well as for the 
country, than predicted civil unrest that will inevitably turn 
violent and could destroy royalty's role altogether.   END COMMENT. 
 
 
MORRISON