VZCZCXRO6099
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHMB #0339/01 3481514
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 141514Z DEC 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY MBABANE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3813
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MBABANE 000339 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2014 
TAGS: PGOV ECON PINR WZ
SUBJECT: PRINCE DAVID: ECONOMIC COLLAPSE TO FORCE REFORMS 
IN 2010 
 
MBABANE 00000339  001.3 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Earl Irving for Reasons 
1.4(b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Prince David Dlamini, half-brother to King 
Mswati III, a former Minister of Justice, and chairman of the 
constitutional commission that drafted Swaziland's current 
constitution, privately told Ambassador Irving that the 
pending economic breakdown in the kingdom would force 
political reforms.  Worsening economic conditions, including 
rising unemployment, closures of factories, and the drop on 
Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) receipts, said Prince 
David, would compel government and royal family in 2010 to 
abandon the tinkhundla system (a method of electing 
representatives to Parliament from each of the 55 
chieftancies; it currently does not allow parties to 
participate in elections) in the face of a progressive-led 
protest.  The Prince, who is a member of the Queen Mother's 
advisory council, said King Mswati III is surrounded by 
"dishonest, uneducated people" who provide the King with bad 
advice.  The Prince indicated that the King's inaction on 
reforming the system would not change even if powerful senior 
traditional leaders such as Prince Mahlaba and Prince 
Matitsela were to pass on.  He recalled that in 1996 
Presidents Nelson Mandela, Robert Mugabe, and Ketumile Masire 
met with King Mswati III in Pretoria to push the monarch 
towards democracy; the King stated he relied on his advisors 
for political issues and no subsequent change occurred.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C) On December 14, Prince David Dlamini, half-brother to 
King Mswati III, a former Minister of Justice, and chairman 
of the constitutional commission that drafted Swaziland's 
current constitution, privately told Ambassador Irving that 
the pending economic breakdown in the kingdom would force 
political reforms onto the system in 2010.  He cited the 
recent departure of South African paper company SAPPI, the 
closure of factories in Matsapha (mostly textile companies 
connected to AGOA benefits), layoffs from a timber company in 
Piggs Peak, high levels of unemployment, and the coming drop 
in SACU receipts, as the local forces which would compel the 
government and royal family to abandon the tinkhundla system 
(a method of electing representatives to Parliament from each 
of the 55 chieftancies; it currently does not allow parties 
to participate in elections) in the face of a progressive-led 
protest.  Prince David said that when the constitution was 
drafted, the plan had been that the tinkhundla system would 
be a temporary transitional measure, which would be removed 
once the country was prepared to reform the system of 
government. 
 
¶3. (C) Regarding how the United States might best be able to 
encourage change towards a multi-party democracy, Prince 
David stated that asking policy leaders such as Prime 
Minister Barnabas Sibusiso Dlamini how Swaziland intended to 
tackle its economic woes would be the most effective method, 
as opposed to loudly criticizing the monarchy.  He also 
advised the Embassy not to discount former Prime Minister 
A.T. Dlamini, who is the current director of the King's 
investment fund, Tibiyo Taka Ngwane.  The Prince, who is a 
member of the Queen Mother's advisory council, said King 
Mswati III is surrounded by "dishonest," generally uneducated 
people, who provide the King with bad advice.  Nevertheless, 
he indicated that the King's inaction on reforming the system 
would not change even if powerful senior traditional leaders 
such as Prince Mahlaba and Prince Matitsela were to pass on. 
Thinking back on past efforts to prompt reform, he recalled 
that in 1996 Presidents Nelson Mandela, Robert Mugabe, and 
Ketumile Masire met with King Mswati III in Pretoria to push 
the monarch towards democracy; the King stated to the leaders 
he relied on his advisors for political issues and no 
subsequent change occurred.  Prince David emphasized that 
what the King says to foreign leaders cannot be relied upon, 
because he always deflects and temporizes to bring pressure 
off himself. 
 
¶4. (C) In discussing the current Prime Minister, Prince David 
said he was brought in specifically by the King to clamp down 
on dissent in the wake of the September 2008 bombing of a 
bridge near a royal residence, probably on the advice of 
Prince Mahlaba. 
 
¶5. (C) The Prince indicated he meets with civil society 
leaders such as labor leader Jan Sithole and People's United 
Democratic Movement (PUDEMO) President Mario Masuku, and 
advises progressives to work slowly and not be provocative. 
He believes that civic education and understanding the 
constitution will eventually lead to political reform. 
 
¶6. (C) COMMENT: Prince David has been an advocate for 
political reform for years, and some sources indicated the 
King asked him to step down as Justice Minister for the 
Prince's safety because of death threats from traditionalists 
 
MBABANE 00000339  002.3 OF 002 
 
 
unhappy with the constitution.  He hints that he has been 
sidelined politically in his current capacity.  While the 
Prince posits a plausible scenario of economic pressure 
leading to political opening in 2010, we see no signs here of 
government willingness to engage its critics.  END COMMENT. 
IRVING