VZCZCXRO2396
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHMB #0331/01 3441015
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 101015Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY MBABANE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3804
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MBABANE 000331 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014 
TAGS: PREL SADC PINR ZI WZ
SUBJECT: SWAZILAND: SADC'S IMMEDIATE NEXT STEPS ON 
ZIMBABWE? PROBABLY NOTHING 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Earl M. Irving 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Clifford 
Mamba told the Ambassador on December 10 that he doubts the 
Southern African Development Community (SADC) will take 
further action on Zimbabwe following the expiration of the 
Maputo communique's 30-day deadline for making progress on 
the Global Political Agreement (GPA).  Mamba reasons that 
Mozambican President Guebuza shares too much political 
baggage with Zimbabwean President Mugabe to push him hard, 
and suggests that we look to the Zambian president for action 
when he assumes the chair of SADC's Organ on Politics, 
Defense and Security next August.  The Swazi diplomat ruled 
out early intervention by South African President Zuma, who 
must gauge carefully how his actions could affect his 
relationship with Guebuza.  According to Mamba, the way 
forward in Zimbabwe is for both Mugabe and his prime minister 
to withdraw from politics and allow a fresh candidate to 
emerge to break the political stalemate.  We believe that 
because of his pedigree, Mamba, a seasoned Swazi diplomat, is 
in a position to know well the positions of both his 
government and the circle of traditionalists who surround 
King Mswati III.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) Swaziland Ministry of Foreign Affairs and 
International Cooperation Principal Secretary Clifford Mamba 
told Ambassador on December 10 that he expected little action 
in the near to medium term from SADC, following the 
expiration of the 30-day deadline given to Zimbabwe to 
achieve progress in implementing the GPA.  The deadline 
follows the Maputo mini-summit's communique on November 5. 
Mamba explained that Mozambican President Armando Guebuza 
currently has a lot on his plate and is hampered by the fact 
that he is Mugabe's neighbor and has a shared history of 
anti-colonial struggle with the Zimbabwean president.  Thus 
he will not pursue resolution of the Zimbabwe question with 
vigor.  Indeed, Mamba reported, Guebuza asked the Swazis, as 
chair of the SADC Organ on Politics, Defense and Security, to 
sort it out prior to passing the baton to Mozambique.  The 
senior Swazi diplomat suggested, instead, that the U.S. and 
other interested Western countries focus their attention on 
the plans of the next Organ chairman, Zambian President 
Rupiah Banda, who will take over in August 2010.  He 
explained that Banda is politically aligned with Kenneth 
Kaunda's party and owes nothing to Mugabe, and therefore is 
in a position to lead the SADC Organ more proactively. 
 
¶3.  (C)  Asked whether he expected South African President 
Zuma to assume a direct role as mediator, Mamba replied in 
the negative.  "Zuma has to gauge any action he takes with 
how it would affect his relationship with Guebuza." The Swazi 
diplomat surmised that at the moment Zuma needed Guebuza for 
more pressing matters.  Simultaneously, he credited Mugabe 
with being "a political Maradona," extremely adept at keeping 
the regional leaders "on side." He continued that the 
Zimbabwean head of state acted in respectful manner, not only 
of his fellow heads of state, but also of fellow political 
cohabitant, Morgan Tsvangirai.  Occasionally, however, Mugabe 
lets his facade slip, remarking about Tsvangirai that, "every 
village has its idiot." 
 
¶4.  (C) Mamba boasted that Zimbabwean Foreign Minister 
Simbarashe Mumbengegwi was his friend and golfing partner, 
whom he met when the two served in at the United Nations in 
New York.  When the two of them discussed Tsvangirai, the 
Zimbabwean told the Swazi senior diplomat that Tsvangirai had 
little influence within Zimbabwe.  "Yes, he may have won the 
election, but it was because of a protest vote," Mamba 
reported him as saying.  He explained that this was because 
Tsvangirai had become discredited from succumbing to too many 
unspecified pressures along the way to the prime minister's 
chair.  Moreover, Mamba alleged, Tsvangirai enjoys little 
credibility among the SADC leaders. 
 
¶5.  (C) Regarding the way forward, the Swazi diplomat told 
the ambassador that "everyone" in the region believes that 
both Mugabe and Tsvangirai should resign their posts and not 
contest any future presidential race.  There should be a 
two-to-three year cooling off period during which the 
government would be headed by a caretaker figure who would 
work to level the political playing field.  At the end of 
that period elections could be held to install a new, 
legitimate government that would benefit the region.  He 
suggested that Tendai Biti might be an excellent candidate, 
either for interim government head or future president. 
 
¶6.  (C) COMMENT: Mamba is the younger brother of Minister of 
Justice and Constitutional Affairs Ndumiso Mamba and son of a 
former foreign minister.  He has been an active diplomat 
since 1990, when he was 27 years old, at which time King 
 
MBABANE 00000331  002 OF 002 
 
 
Mswati III appointed him ambassador in Belgium, accredited to 
all of continental Europe and the European Commission.  When 
Mamba's father was the Swazi high commissioner in London, he 
was appointed guardian to the future Swazi king when the 
latter was sent to England to study.  The Foreign Affairs 
principal secretary and the king grew up together and have a 
close personal relationship.  Moreover, the Mamba clan 
historically has enjoyed a special status vis-a-vis the royal 
household.  For that reason, Clifford Mamba has a keen 
understanding of the positions both of the government and the 
king's inner circle.  We believe he has given an accurate 
account not only of his government's thinking but that of 
other SADC members.  While he admires Mugabe for his 
shrewdness and sounds like he sides with the Zimbabwean head 
of state, he understands that the situation in Zimbabwe is 
untenable and a drag on the region, and must change. END 
COMMENT. 
IRVING