VZCZCXYZ0032
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTO #1406/01 3641339
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301339Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1132
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0585
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS MAPUTO 001406 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI MZ
SUBJECT: MEDIA ANALYSIS OF ELECTION RESULTS: BAD OUTWEIGHS 
GOOD 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: In the wake of GRM's Constitutional Court 
validation on December 28 of the results of the October 
national elections, media outlets have analyzed the campaign 
season, suggesting that the "good" aspects of the elections 
were outweighed by the "bad" and "ugly."  On one hand, the 
new Democratic Movement of Mozambique's (MDM) performance in 
the presidential race indicates that the new party could 
eventually provide an effective opposition to the ruling 
Mozambique Liberation Front's (Frelimo) longstanding 
political dominance, promoting multi-party democracy. 
However, party exclusions from the legislative polls, unrest 
during the campaign period, and ballot tampering undermined 
election legitimacy.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------ 
The Good ) New Party Showing Promise 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (U) MDM candidate Daviz Simango won 8.59% of the votes in 
the presidential race ) a strong showing considering that 
Simango only launched the party on March 6, and faced a 
generally hostile campaign environment.  Miguel de Brito, 
Mozambique Country Director for the Electoral Institute for 
Southern Africa, a group that promotes democracy in Africa, 
told the New York Times on October 30 that Simango's 
performance at the polls was a "good start" for a newcomer 
and that the results showed that MDM already had "some base" 
of support. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
The Good ) Election Day Process Functional, Calm 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶3.  (U) Polling stations apparently had enough materials and 
staffing for voters.  There were no reports of insufficient 
or missing supplies that kept citizens from casting their 
ballots, which is a significant logistical accomplishment 
considering that there were over 12,000 polling stations for 
a registered electorate of over 9.8 million people and that 
many polling stations were only accessible by 4-wheel-drive 
vehicles or helicopter, according to the Electoral 
Administration Technical Secretariat (STAE).  However, CIP 
reported that there were proportionately fewer polling 
stations in opposition strongholds such as Zambezia and 
Nampula, meaning voters had to walk longer distances in those 
provinces to vote.  There were no missing results sheets, an 
improvement from the 2004 election when over 1,000 polling 
station result sheets went missing, according to 
government-owned news agency AIM.  Felisberto Naife, general 
director of the STAE, told AIM that as of November 8, nearly 
97 per cent of the result sheets had been processed. 
 
¶4.  (U) Despite numerous incidents of unrest during the 
campaign, there was no significant reported violence on 
Election Day itself.  The European Union observers called the 
elections "well-managed" and "calm," according to Paris-based 
news agency AFP. 
 
---------------------------------- 
The Bad ) More Pre-Election Unrest 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) Mozambican media commented on the high level of 
tension compared with previous elections, including incidents 
of limited violence between supporters of Frelimo, Renamo, 
and the MDM.  Political analysts and media speculated that 
the MDM's emergence threatened Frelimo and Renamo dominance 
and was the main cause of increased election-related unrest 
among all parties.  For example, Lusa and the Mozambique 
Peace Process Bulletin (PPB) -- a reliable election-focused 
newsletter from the Association of European Parliamentarians 
for Africa and the Center for Public Integrity ) routinely 
reported incidents of unrest during the 45-day campaign 
period, including sporadic violence among supporters of the 
main political parties, vandalism at party offices, damage to 
campaign materials, and moves to frustrate campaign parades 
and rallies.  Although some unrest occurred during past 
elections, the PPB reported that the 1994, 1999, and 2004 
elections had been generally "trouble free" and peaceful. 
 
¶6.  (U) Professors from Maputo's Eduardo Mondlane University 
blamed the unprecedented level of unrest on the MDM's 
emergence, according to an October 4 Lusa report.  The 
respected Africa Monitor newsletter reported that Frelimo and 
Renamo see MDM as a "potential threat" to their respective 
"electoral aspirations," possibly impacting both parties' 
"status quo of domination." 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
The Bad ) Ballot Box Stuffing, Ballot Tampering 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶7.  (U) Open sources cited various reports of ballot box 
stuffing ) almost exclusively to Frelimo's benefit. 
Improbably high voter turnouts in several districts show that 
ballot box stuffing very likely took place.  For example, 
cities including Chicualacula, Massagena, and Changara all 
had voter turnouts exceeding 90% and 98% of all votes in 
those cities went to Guebuza.  In Ilha de Mozambique a 
teacher was arrested for reportedly trying to stuff ballots 
into a box in Jembesse, Lumbo.  According to PPB, Renamo held 
a press conference to display the already-filled-out ballots, 
which all voted for Frelimo.  At least 10% of the votes cast 
in the districts of Sofala, Nampula, Cabo Delgado, Zambezia 
were void ) indicating a high likelihood of ballot tampering 
compared to the overall average of 4.3% for this election and 
the overall average of 3.9% in 2004.  In most cases, invalid 
votes had more than one candidate selected on a single 
ballot, as if trying to cast two votes for two different 
candidates on the same ballot, according to the PPB. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
The Ugly - Party Exclusion From Legislative Election 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶8.  (U) Several commentators said the National Elections 
Commission's (CNE) ruling to exclude 14 parties--including 
MDM--from contesting the provincial polls could undermine the 
election's legitimacy.  The Constitutional Council (CC), the 
highest court in the country, unanimously upheld the CNE's 
decision to exclude the parties from the parliamentary 
elections, saying that the parties had "contravened 
obligatory legal clauses."  The Portuguese news agency Lusa 
reported that Mozambican political analyst Jose Jaime Macuane 
called the CNE's decision illegal and questioned the CNE's 
partiality.  Xavier de Figueiredo, a Lusophone Africa expert 
and editor of the Africa Monitor, said in his September 24 
and September 10 newsletters that the "relaxed compliance 
with the Law on Elections" together with the decision to 
"reject" the parties has led to a "climate of tension" that 
has permeated the election campaign.  Independent legal 
consultants opined that the CNE used "excessive zeal" in 
applying the law, and Mozambican jurist Custodio Duma said 
that it would be difficult to call the elections "free and 
fair," according to Lusa on October 1.  A September 9 Savana 
editorial asserted that the credibility of the elections 
would be difficult to establish because the CNE is "justly or 
unjustly" seen to be at Frelimo's service.  On September 2, 
ambassadors from donor countries said that the candidate 
approval process was arbitrary and lacked transparency, 
according to the French press agency AFP. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Some good aspects of the elections process indicate 
that there is still hope for democracy in Mozambique.  Based 
on its performance at the polls, MDM could become an 
opposition party strong enough to counter Frelimo in a way 
that Renamo, at least under its current leader Afonso 
Dhlakama, has not been able to do.  Unfortunately, the bad 
and the ugly--party exclusions and pre-election 
unrest--blighted the elections and suggest that the ruling 
Frelimo party may yet be unwilling to let multi-party 
democracy flourish. 
ROTH