VZCZCXRO8091
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHTO #1346/01 3381506
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 041506Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1078
INFO RUEHXQ/EU COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MAPUTO 001346 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID MZ
SUBJECT: EUROPEANS AND CANADIANS CONSIDER RESPONSE TO 
MOZAMBIQUE'S FLAWED ELECTIONS 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Todd C. Chapman, Reasons 1.4(b+d) 
 
¶1.  (C)SUMMARY:  A lack of transparency in the October 28 
elections and other governance concerns have some donors 
considering a reduction in the $465 million of direct budget 
support provided to the GRM.  Working together in the G-19 
Donor Group (including the United States as an associate 
member), the group is debating the way forward, including the 
establishment of a formal negotiating mechanism with the GRM 
to address governance concerns.  The Northern Europeans and 
Canada are firm in pressingfor action whereas the Southern 
Europeans wish not/not to send tough messages.  The climate 
worsened when the European Commission (EC) in Brussels 
circulated a communique (COREU) to all EU capitals stating 
that the EC Representative in Mozambique should be empowered 
to lead all the EU countries in the negotiations on how best 
to respond on the question of budget support to the GRM. 
This instruction, sent on the same day that the Lisbon Treaty 
went into effect, caused consternation not only among many EU 
Ambassadors, but also reportedly in their capitals.  The GRM 
is especially sensitive to any cuts in direct budget support, 
as contemplated by several governments, thus G-19 collective 
action is particularly effective.  Such joint action is 
necessary, as civil society, media, and opposition parties 
warn that the longer the international community waits to 
express its concerns about the flawed elections and the 
declining governance indicators, the less credibility it will 
have.  END SUMMARY. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Ever-Growing Evidence of Elections Fraud 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Mozambique held presidential, parliamentary, and 
provincial elections on October 28 in which the ruling party 
captured 75 percent of the vote.  The EU Observation Mission 
on October 30 released a preliminary statement which, like 
other international observer missions,  criticized the lack 
of transparency during the electoral process which resulted 
in the exclusion of many opposition candidates.  Though 
citing a number of irregularities, the preliminary report 
concluded that the election day was relatively well-run and 
peaceful.  Since then, there has been growing evidence of 
substantial election fraud, which led the National Election 
Commission to throw out 16 percent of the registered votes in 
a single province. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Donors Ask Whether 'Democratic Principles' Breached 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶3.  (C) The resident EU Ambassadors (plus Norway, 
Switzerland, and Canada) all are part of the 'G-19 donor 
group' in Mozambique which provides direct budget support to 
the GRM. (The United States joined as an Associate Member in 
2009 but does not directly provide budget support).  Guiding 
their $465 million in direct budget support pledged for 2010 
is a memorandum of understanding with the GRM which states 
that if there were a breach of underlying democratic 
principles, it could warrant an immediate reduction of budget 
support.  Events in the recent election are causing many 
members of the G-19 to question whether or not such a breach 
has occurred. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Northern Europeans, Canadians Take a Tough Line 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶4.  (C) The G-19 Heads of Mission met November 25 to review 
three options: 1) do nothing but request a deeper dialogue 
with the GRM on democracy and governance issues; 2) suspend 
but not cancel budget support payments pending GRM 
commitments on governance issues; and 3) declare an immediate 
breach of the underlying principles and reduce direct budget 
support, and launch a negotiation with the GRM on next steps 
to restore budget support.  There was a wide range of views 
among the European and Canadian Ambassadors.  The United 
Kingdom, Canada, Switzerland, and Sweden were all prepared to 
declare an immediate breach of the democratic principles and 
reduce budget support.  The UK High Commissioner, along with 
the DFID representative, were firm in supporting the 
immediate declaration of a breach, an announcement of a 
reallocation of some amount of budget support to other 
projects, and the commencement of negotiations with the GRM 
to reach an agreement on steps which must be taken to restore 
the totality of budget support.  The DFID representative said 
"we (the donors) have lost our credibility because we've been 
too patient for too long."  The Nordic, the Irish, the 
 
MAPUTO 00001346  002 OF 003 
 
 
German, and the Dutch Ambassadors also are considering 
reductions, but preferred first to suspend temporarily budget 
support to provide a "shock effect" to the GRM in 
anticipation of negotiations.  The Irish Ambassador stated 
that his Development Minister thought the actions of the GRM 
in the recent elections "were sinister and we don't want to 
support countries with this kind of commitment to democracy." 
 The German Ambassador agreed that there needed to be "some 
teeth" in the dialogue or the re-elected GRM President and 
his new cabinet, feeling stronger than ever, could ignore 
donor concerns completely.  The Danish Ambassador said strong 
action was needed, not only to punish the GRM, but to protect 
future aid flows, which otherwise would be in jeopardy as 
capitals could lose faith in the budget support modality. 
The Charge supported a strong response to demonstrate donor 
concern about the well-demonstrated backsliding on governance 
issues and the numerous irregularities in the recently 
concluded elections. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Southern Europeans Argue for Status Quo 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) The Southern Europeans (Portugal, Spain, and Italy) 
resisted any tough message and argued for the status quo. 
The Portuguese Ambassador said that he was totally against 
ultimatums and that it was better to react only after 
receiving the final EU Election Observation Mission in 
January.  He also said that Mozambique was "not that bad" 
when comparing its actions to others on the continent." 
(NOTE: Contacts at the Portuguese Embassy have readily 
admitted to Emboffs on numerous occasions that the 
complicated colonial history with Mozambique clouds what 
would otherwise be a tougher line on democracy issues.  END 
NOTE).  The EC Representative (an Italian national), clearly 
opposed to any tough messaging, argued that such political 
issues should be handled within the context of the regularly 
scheduled EU political dialogues with the GRM as called for 
in the Cotonou Agreement. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Finns Try to Find a Common Ground 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) The Finnish Chair of the G-19 proposed a way forward 
that would send a letter to the GRM noting the groups 
concerns, citing a "possible breach" of underlying democratic 
principles, and proposing the beginning of negotiations.  The 
Swedish Ambassador encouraged using the democracy and 
governance concerns raised recently in the African Peer 
Review Mechanism in order to ensure maximum buy-in by the 
GRM.  A sub-group of the G-19, the Democracy Platform Group, 
is drawing up a series of proposals for consideration by G-19 
Heads of Mission for use in the eventual negotiations with 
the GRM. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Fissures Are Growing between EU Countries 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.   (C) As chair of the G-19, the Finnish Ambassador 
recently circulated a draft letter which sparked animated 
debate among the members, as the Portuguese and Spanish 
Ambassadors along with the EC Representative all backed away 
from a letter that censured the GRM in any way.   The climate 
worsened when the EC in Brussels circulated a communique 
(COREU) to all EU capitals stating that the EC Ambassador in 
Mozambique should be empowered to lead the entire EU in 
regards to how the EU countries should respond on the 
question of budget support to the GRM.   This instruction was 
sent out on the same day that the Lisbon Treaty went into 
effect, causing consternation not only among many EU 
Ambassadors, but also in their capitals.  The UK High 
Commissioner stated that the EC instruction only confirmed 
his country's greatest fears about implementation of the 
Lisbon Treaty.  The Irish Ambassador described it as a 
"blatant power-grab by the EC" which has now elevated 
attention to the issues in Mozambique as a test case for how 
the EC intends to exert its new powers. 
 
¶8.  (C) On December 4, the G-19 Heads of Mission met again to 
debate the issues.  The EC Representative reiterated his 
opposition to a strong course of action, noted that political 
dialogue should take place within the Cotonou Agreement 
framework, and if a breach in underlying principles occurs it 
could lead to an "Article 69" declaration--"We would be 
putting Mozambique at the same level as Guinea and Sudan, 
which doesn't make sense."  The UK High Commissioner 
 
MAPUTO 00001346  003 OF 003 
 
 
responded that the EC has to respect its Cotonou commitments, 
but "the rest of us, as independent sovereign nations, have 
every right and intention to determine how best to administer 
our assistance to Mozambique."  The Portuguese Ambassador 
said he was not convinced about the timing or the substance 
of the approach to the GRM.  He noted that the results of the 
election were clear, a broad FRELIMO victory, and that minor 
adjustments would not have impacted the end result.   The 
Swiss, Dutch, Norwegian, Swede, Danish, Canadian, British and 
U.S. representatives all argued for the sending of a joint 
letter noting collective concerns and the wish to begin a 
process to review formally concerns and devise a 
mutually-agreed upon action plan.  The British complained 
that the COREU sent by the EC attempted to take matters out 
of local ambassadors' control, and argued that a rigid 
instruction from Brussels would not be acceptable to many 
countries.  The meeting concluded with a joint effort to 
draft a letter to the GRM that would be delivered on December 
¶7. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
COMMENT: Election Fraud Highlights Donor Differences 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶9. (C) While the G-19 Donor Group struggles to maintain unity 
in presenting its concerns to the GRM, the diplomatic fracas 
provoked by the EC seeking to expand its mandate to manage EU 
members' responses has emerged as a most intriguing sub-plot 
in this drama.  Frustrated especially by the procedural 
maneuverings of the EC and Portugal, the "Like Minded 
Countries" (Nordics, Dutch, Germans, Swiss, British, 
Canadians and the United States) are prepared to raise 
concerns jointly with the GRM should the G-19 mechanism fail 
to produce a clear result by December 7.  The Charge has 
already separately telegraphed USG concerns in conversations 
with several Ministers and FRELIMO insiders, but there is 
great value in joining forces with others to add greater 
weight to the collective concerns.  The GRM is especially 
sensitive to any cuts in direct budget support, as 
contemplated by several governments, thus G-19 collective 
action is particularly effective.  Such joint action is 
necessary, as civil society, media, and opposition parties 
warn that the longer the international community waits to 
express its concerns about the flawed elections and the 
declining governance indicators, the less credibility it will 
have. 
CHAPMAN