VZCZCXRO6921
OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHML #2636/01 3630813
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 290813Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6133
RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHOVQHS/COMSEVENTHFLT  IMMEDIATE
INFO RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA IMMEDIATE 2335
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0361
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS IMMEDIATE
RUEHRO/USMISSION UN ROME IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 002636 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
BANGKOK FOR  USAID /OFDA REGIONAL ADVISOR A. DWYER 
USAID FOR DCHA/OFDA R. THAYER 
USAID W/ FOR ANE/AA AND DCHA/FPP 
GENEVA FOR N. KYLOH 
USUN FOR OFDA REP 
BRUSSELS FOR P. BROWN 
ROME FOR USAID/OHA H. SPANOS 
SECDEF FOR SOLIC 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC FOR J3/J4/J5 
PACOM FOR J3/J4/J5 
NSC FOR P. MARCHAM 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID SOCI PREL KPAO SENV EAGR CASC RP
SUBJECT:  PHILIPPINES VOLCANO REMAINS AT HIGH ALERT; U.S. GAUGES 
POTENTIAL RELIEF NEEDS 
 
REFTELS:  A) Manila 2597 B) Manila 2583 C) Manila 2610 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Southern Luzon's Mount Mayon, at Alert Level 4 
since December 20, continues to emit lava and hurl ash skyward in 
mile-high plumes.  Local authorities have evacuated over 47,000 
residents from within five miles of the summit and are struggling to 
provide them with adequate clean water, sanitation and health care. 
Mission Disaster Relief Officer (MDROff), U.S. Agency for 
International Development Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance 
(USAID/OFDA) Regional Advisor, and U.S. military personnel are 
currently on location to evaluate relief needs, interface with local 
officials, and develop a U.S. Government contingency relief plan. 
Based on the current situation, Post is declaring a disaster. 
Septel formally requests USD 100,000 in disaster assistance funds 
for victims in evacuation centers.  End Summary. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Volcano Calmer, but Major Eruption Remains Likely 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Although Mount Mayon, 220 miles southeast of Manila, 
continues to exhibit intense volcanic activity, Philippine Institute 
of Volcanology and Seismology (PHILVOLCS) scientists have yet to 
observe an eruption of sufficient magnitude to warrant the highest 
warning level, Alert Level 5.  In fact, PHILVOLCS bulletins indicate 
that the number of daily volcanic earthquakes has decreased by more 
than a factor of ten, and the daily volume of sulfur dioxide 
emissions has more than halved since evacuations began on December 
¶14.  However, Ms. Maricel Capa of the PHILVOLCS Volcano Monitoring 
Division told us that decreased seismic and gas activity was also 
consistent with a 'plugged crater,' which often precedes a 
particularly violent release of trapped magma.  Apart from a 
catastrophic explosion, Capa said rainy weather and resulting 
landslides were a major safety concern, as lava flows now extend 
almost four miles below the crater rim. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Clean Water, Sanitation Shortfalls Threaten Evacuees 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Mission Disaster Relief Officer (MDROff) and U.S. Agency 
for International Development Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster 
Assistance (USAID/OFDA) Regional Advisor inspected four (of 31 
total) evacuation centers in Albay province on December 24 and 
observed crowded conditions and shortages of clean water and 
sanitation facilities.  Most of the evacuation centers are schools, 
with classrooms designed for 25 children now housing 40 or more 
evacuees.    One center visited by MDROff and OFDA Advisor featured 
only two working latrines for over 2,000 people.  At some evacuation 
centers the Bureau of Fire Protection is trucking in water to 
alleviate shortages, while at others evacuees are relying on local 
residents for potable water. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Health Issues Under Control for Now 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) MDROff and OFDA Advisor noted that although current health 
issues remain limited to low-level respiratory and intestinal 
conditions, officials are concerned that increasingly cool weather 
and prolonged overcrowding will increase health risks.  Albay 
Provincial Disaster Coordinating Committee (PDCC) Executive Director 
Cesar Daep confirmed that the centers are currently free of major 
disease outbreaks and said that the Philippine military, the Albay 
Department of Health (DoH), and private sector groups were 
collaborating in daily health assessments at evacuation centers. 
The DoH was setting up clinics at 'strategic locations,' so sick 
evacuees would not need to be transferred to hospitals in case of 
illness. 
 
MANILA 00002636  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Authorities Trying to Keep Education on Track 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Anticipating an evacuation that will last at least through 
January, provincial Department of Education (DoE) authorities hope 
to transfer evacuees from schools to tent camps by the start of 
classes on January 4.  Disaster relief officials, however, fear that 
such a move will spur evacuees to return to their homes in the 
danger zone on Mount Mayon, and suggest holding classes in tents 
instead.  Regardless of which scenario prevails, officials say the 
need for tents is acute.   The DoE plans to resume a normal 
instruction schedule by doubling shifts in unaffected schools (to 
accommodate evacuee schoolchildren) and holding make-up classes on 
Saturdays.  The DoE will also attempt to hold classes in some 
schools serving as evacuation centers, with the centers reverting to 
sleeping areas at night. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Province Opens Arms to Relief Groups 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Albay provincial officials have enlisted a broad range of 
public, private, national, and international organizations to 
support the evacuation effort and maintain the province's 'zero 
casualty' policy.  In addition to engaging the full spectrum of 
Philippine government departments and agencies, provincial officials 
have elicited assistance from various United Nations (e.g. World 
Food Program, UN Development Program, Food and Agricultural 
Organization, UN International Children's Emergency Fund), private 
sector (e.g. Pfizer Inc.), and international and non-governmental 
organizations (IOs and NGOs, e.g. International Organization for 
Migration, Save the Children).  On December 22, Albay Governor Jose 
Sarte 'Joey' Salceda declared the evacuation centers 'open cities' 
for IOs and NGOs, allowing them to enter without prior notice or 
clearance, so as to facilitate the provision of the services and 
goods they provide to the evacuees.  Despite the broad range of 
donors, PDCC chairman Cesar Daep told us on December 28 that the 
province's calamity fund was nearly depleted and that obtaining 
additional funding to maintain the evacuation program is Governor 
Salceda's top priority. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Support for American Citizens and Local Staff 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶7. (SBU) Consular section staff has determined that there are no 
U.S. citizens in the extended danger zone, and continue to monitor 
the situation by contacting local authorities and wardens in the 
affected area on a daily basis.  The Consular section has prepared 
and pre-cleared a warden message to be disseminated in the event of 
a major eruption, and has readied a 'fly-away team' that will be 
dispatched to assist Amcits in the affected area in the event of an 
eruption.  The Management section has prepared a contingency plan in 
the event an eruption generates an ash cloud over Manila, with 
provisions to provide emergency medical, communications, and 
transportation services and information to the Mission community. 
The Regional Security Office has issued an additional travel notice 
on December 29 advising American and locally employed staff that 
travel to the affected area requires permission of the Regional 
Security Officer. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
U.S. Assesses Needs, Prepares Contingency Plan 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶8. (SBU) In conjunction with USAID/Philippines and OFDA, the U.S. 
Joint Special Operations Task Force - Philippines (JSOTF-P) are 
 
MANILA 00002636  003 OF 003 
 
 
conducting a December 29-30 field visit to the affected area to 
evaluate relief needs, survey infrastructure and potential points of 
debarkation, and interface with Armed Forces of the Philippines 
(AFP)units already deployed in the region.  In the event of a 
catastrophic eruption, JSOTF-P is prepared to rapidly deploy a small 
team of medical specialists and chaplains to augment AFP efforts. 
Joint U.S. Military Assistance Group-Philippines is closely 
monitoring the situation, liaising with AFP colleagues on-site, and 
providing periodic reports to U.S. Pacific Command. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The MDROff and USAID/OFDA Advisor are currently in Albay 
province monitoring the situation and working with Philippine 
government officials, NGOs, IOs, UN organizations and donor 
countries to accurately assess needs and coordinate potential relief 
efforts to avoid duplication in the event a disaster does occur. 
USAID/OFDA is also providing technical assistance to PHILVOLCS and 
ensuring that the volcano-monitoring equipment USAID/OFDA provided 
the Institute is adequately performing its early-warning function. 
Based on first-hand assessments by the OFDA Advisor and the MDROff, 
and the anticipated prolonged stay of community members in 
evacuation centers, Post is declaring a disaster via septel and 
requesting USD 100,000 in disaster funds. 
 
¶10. (SBU) USAID oversees several ongoing health projects in the 
affected region, and staff associated with these bilateral programs 
is working closely with local government health officials to monitor 
the wellbeing and health of the evacuees as well as to anticipate 
the health services that would be needed in the event of a 
catastrophic eruption.  USAID is prepared to mobilize additional 
resources as necessary to ensure that health standards continue to 
be met within the evacuation centers and in surrounding affected 
communities. 
 
Kenney