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FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6102
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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0356
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 002610 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
BANGKOK FOR  USAID /OFDA REGIONAL ADVISOR A. DWYER 
USAID FOR DCHA/OFDA R. THAYER 
USAID W/ FOR ANE/AA AND DCHA/FPP 
GENEVA FOR N. KYLOH 
USUN FOR OFDA REP 
BRUSSELS FOR P. BROWN 
ROME FOR USAID/OHA H. SPANOS 
SECDEF FOR SOLIC 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC FOR J3/J4/J5 
PACOM FOR J3/J4/J5 
NSC FOR P. MARCHAM 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID SOCI PREL KPAO SENV EAGR CASC RP
SUBJECT:  FEARS RISE THAT PHILIPPINES' MOST ACTIVE VOLCANO SET TO 
ERUPT 
 
REFTELS:  A) Manila 2597 B) Manila 2583 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Philippine volcanologists warned on December 20 
that a hazardous eruption was imminent, after observing Mount Mayon 
hurl increasing amounts of ash and lava skyward.  Provincial 
authorities have evacuated nearly all of the 46,000 residents from 
within five miles of the summit, and stand ready to evacuate an 
additional 80,000 in the event of a volcanic explosion and/or 
continuing rains.  Officials expressed concern that they will be 
unable to fund a prolonged evacuation of six weeks or more, and have 
requested funds, supplies and personnel from Philippine government 
agencies.  A multitude of Mission and U.S. Government agencies, 
including the U.S. military, the U.S. Agency for International 
Development, the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Peace 
Corps have previously contributed to disaster relief and 
preparedness efforts in the area, and stand ready to do so again if 
required.  End Summary. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Odds of Hazardous Eruption Now Rated High 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology 
(PHIVOLCS) scientists based their December 20 decision to raise the 
Mayon volcano's Alert Level to 4 (of 5 levels) on the large 
increases in seismic activity and gas emissions, as well as on 
observations of lava fountains and ash eruptions.  Since the initial 
evacuations began on December 14, the daily number of volcanic 
earthquakes increased from 83 to almost 2,000, and the volume of 
sulfur dioxide gas emissions surged from 535 to over 6,500 tons per 
day, according to PHIVOLCS bulletins.  On December 21, PHILVOCS 
researchers reported lava fountains rising 200 meters above the 
crater, and noted that the lava front now reached three miles below 
the summit. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Mission disaster Relief Officer (MDROff) reports that the 
evacuation centers are currently in good condition, and authorities 
are meeting the 46,000 evacuees' basic needs for clean water, food, 
and medical care.  The Ambassador spoke with the chairman of the 
Philippine National Red Cross on December 22, who said they felt 
well-prepared to assist with potential injuries following an 
eruption, as they had deployed a field hospital and extra ambulances 
to the area. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
'It Takes a Village' to Run an Evacuation Center 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) Albay provincial Governor Jose Sarte 'Joey' Salceda told us 
that he has instituted an array of costly incentives and pledges to 
meet his 'primary challenge' of preventing evacuees from returning 
to their homes in the volcano danger zone.  These include a daily 
ration of five kilograms of rice per family per day, holiday meals, 
Christmas gifts for children, a 3,000 peso stipend to be paid to 
farmers after the crisis is over, and feed for evacuees' farm 
animals.  He also cited the need for social and psychological and 
counseling ('our greatest need'), as well as for preventive medical 
care.  Salceda stressed that only an all-around supportive 
environment, in his words 'a village', could prevent a mass exodus 
from the evacuation centers.  He estimated the cost of a six-week 
evacuation to be 67 million pesos (USD 1.5 million), well beyond the 
province's calamity fund.  The Albay Provincial Disaster 
Coordinating Council (PDCC) has requested funds, supplies, and 
personnel from the National Disaster Coordinating Council, the 
Department of Social Welfare and Development and the Department of 
Health to meet these needs. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Heavy Rains, Major Explosion Officials' Worst Fears 
 
MANILA 00002610  002 OF 003 
 
 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Both Governor Salceda and PHIVOLCS Assistant Director 
Bartolome Bautista believe heavy rains pose the greatest threat of a 
major disaster.  (Note:  Although Mount Mayon's October 2006 
eruption caused no loss of life, Typhoon Durian (Reming) the 
following month triggered landslides of volcanic debris that killed 
an estimated 1,000.  End Note.)  The Governor told us that he will 
begin to evacuate the more densely populated areas outside the five 
mile danger zone if the currently intermittent rains strengthen, or 
if a volcanic explosion takes place.  Bautista lamented that the 
media and general public fail to recognize the technical distinction 
between a Mount Pinatubo-style volcanic explosion (which PHIVOLCS 
considers unlikely) and an eruption, which by definition consists of 
ash plumes and lava flows, the type of behavior predicted to 
intensify on Mount Mayon.  Governor Salceda noted that unlike the 
farmers that constitute the current evacuees, the more urban 
residents of an extended eight mile danger zone are more fearful of 
an eruption, and many are requesting to be evacuated. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Volcanic Pyrotechnics Draw Tourists 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Although Governor Salceda has publicly stated that 
promoting disaster tourism is not official provincial policy, some 
officials are taking the time to encourage the domestic and 
international tourists that continue to flock to the area.  The 
Albay Public Safety and Emergency Management Office has set up 
strategic viewing areas outside the danger zone, and the PDCC 
Chairman Cedric Daep told local media that 'only a portion' of the 
regional capital Legazpi city was within range of a volcanic 
eruption.  Mount Mayon's perfect cone shape is a consistent tourist 
draw in the best of times, but according to local contacts, the 
added attraction of volcanic pyrotechnics has greatly increased 
tourist numbers, generating a bonanza for the local tourism 
industry. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Looking Out for American Citizens and Veterans 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶7. (SBU) All American citizens who live in the danger zone and are 
registered with the Consular section are accounted for.  Consular 
staff continues to monitor the situation by contacting wardens in 
the affected area.  The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) 
Outpatient Clinic at post has contacted all veterans residing in 
Albay province who receive medications via the clinic to confirm any 
changes in whereabouts and ensure continued delivery.  The VA 
benefits office has screened all outgoing Filipino Veterans Equity 
Compensation program checks, as well as all monthly disability 
compensation and pension benefit checks to ensure accurate delivery 
to Albay province addresses. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Post held an Emergency Action Committee (EAC) meeting on 
December 22 to prepare for a possible large scale eruption.  The EAC 
reviewed the status of American citizens and veterans, and discussed 
USG relief options in the event of a large-scale disaster.  The 
Management section will send a notice advising American and locally 
employed staff that travel to the affected area requires permission 
of the Regional Security Officer.  The Consular section is sending a 
warden message advising of the upgrade to Alert level 4 and the 
resulting restrictions on travel of embassy personnel.  An 
additional warden message has been prepared and will be issued in 
the event of an eruption. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Long Record of U.S Disaster Preparedness and Relief 
 
MANILA 00002610  003 OF 003 
 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The United States has a long history of military and 
civilian disaster preparedness and relief efforts in the area. 
During the bilateral military and training exercise known as 
Balikatan 2009, U.S. and Philippine armed forces improved roads, 
constructed schools, and provided medical care to more than 21,000 
local citizens.  Similarly, U.S. Navy personnel provided free 
medical care and reconstructed damaged public buildings after Mount 
Mayon's 2006 eruption and after typhoon Durian (Reming) hit that 
same year.  U.S. Peace Corps (PC) volunteers also pitched in after 
Typhoon Durian, distributing relief supplies, rebuilding homes, 
schools, and fishing boats, and assessing damage to facilitate 
relief aid.  In addition to providing large amounts of relief 
supplies, the U.S. Agency for International Development/Philippines 
(USAID) has contributed $5.0 million to restore livelihoods and 
construct over 900 typhoon- and earthquake-resistant homes in 
previously devastated areas.  Both the Peace Corps and USAID have 
likewise invested heavily in disaster preparedness in this 
calamity-prone region.  PC volunteers have provided technical 
assistance in disaster shelter construction and management, while 
USAID has sponsored disaster risk reduction training for teachers 
and children, worked with local government officials to develop 
disaster plans and low-cost warning systems, and pre-positioned 
emergency equipment and supplies in rural areas. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Proactive USG Agencies Prepare to Assist 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The Consular Section has organized a 'fly-away team' that 
will be dispatched to assist Amcits in the affected area in the 
event of an eruption that makes the city of Legazpi uninhabitable. 
The team has prepared a rendezvous site outside the danger zone 
where they will provide Amcits in need with emergency loans and 
other assistance.  The U.S. Joint Special Operations Task Force - 
Philippines is prepared to send a medical team to Albay province on 
short notice, and is in close contact with U.S. Pacific Command 
regarding possible future humanitarian assistance. 
USAID/Philippines is in constant contact with local government 
authorities, United Nations agencies on site, and the various 
Non-Governmental Organizations that operate in the area, including 
those who have implemented previous USAID disaster-relief programs. 
A Regional Advisor from USAID's Bangkok Office of U.S. Foreign 
Disaster Assistance (OFDA) is due to arrive in the Philippines on 
December 22.  He will assist the Country Team in drafting a 
contingency plan based on a worst case scenario.  Currently, USAID 
health and environment programs in the region and its personnel are 
gearing up to provide immediate assistance as necessary, including 
support to evacuees in evacuation centers.  USAID is also working 
closely with the U.S. military to ensure strong coordination and 
synergy is in place. 
 
Kenney