VZCZCXRO4606
OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHFK RUEHHM RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHPB
DE RUEHML #2483/01 3360001
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 020001Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5938
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS IMMEDIATE
RUEHZU/ASIAN PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 002483 
 
SIPDIS 
 
EAP FOR AWYCKOFF 
BANGKOK FOR REO HHOWARD AND RDMA WBOWMAN 
USAID EGAT FOR JHESTER, WBREED; ANE for JWILSON, MMELNYK; MTS/MLS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV ECON KGCC RP
SUBJECT: Philippines Appears to Moderate Pre-Copenhagen Climate 
Change Stance 
 
Ref: Manila 2329 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary. The Philippines' lead climate change negotiator, 
former Senator and Environment Secretary Heherson "Sonny" Alvarez, 
has spelled out a pragmatic position on greenhouse gas emissions, 
calling for mandatory cuts for 'all the big boys', including China. 
This replaces earlier Philippine demands for 'deep and early cuts' 
in emissions of 30 percent for developed countries.  Alvarez's 
statements are in line with comments made by Philippine President 
Arroyo during the visit of Secretary of Agriculture Vilsack in 
October.  Alvarez credited Philippine environmental Non-governmental 
Organizations (NGOs) with informing the government's climate change 
position and noted that NGO representatives constituted a large part 
of the Philippines Copenhagen delegation.  Some representatives of 
Philippine NGOs expressed bewilderment at the GRP's apparent change 
in position, but also noted that the multitude of bureaucracies and 
personalities involved in Philippine climate change policy often 
resulted in multiple and contradictory expressions of policy.  End 
Summary. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
President Highlights Climate Change with Clinton, Vilsack 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Philippine President Arroyo highlighted climate change in 
talks with both Secretary Clinton and Secretary Vilsack during their 
respective November 12 and October 26 visits to Manila.  President 
Arroyo's stated preference for 'workable, binding (emission) 
targets' during talks with Secretary Vilsack (reftel) was the first 
high profile deviation from the GRP's standard position of 'deep and 
early cuts' by developed countries of more than 30 to 40 percent 
from 2013 to 2017.  (Note: The 'deep and early cuts' phrase has been 
a centerpiece position since the December 2008 Conference of Parties 
(COP) in Poznan, Poland and as recently as April 2009 climate change 
talks in Bonn.  End note.)  The President told the press on November 
11 that she is amenable to a climate change agreement requiring 
countries to make individual commitments to greenhouse gas emission 
reductions and would no longer insist on deep and early cuts. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
GRP Says China Must Commit to Emission Cuts 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU) While Presidential Advisor on Climate Change Alvarez would 
not explicitly repudiate his signature 'deep and early cuts' phrase 
in a November 24 meeting with EST&H Officer, he mentioned several 
times that real progress on climate change mitigation was possible 
only if 'all the big boys', including China, accepted binding 
emissions' cuts.  He also said that the Philippines was preparing a 
package of voluntary emissions reductions to present at the 
Copenhagen talks that would reduce emissions five percent below 2000 
levels.  He added that technical staff were still determining the 
specific contributions of particular sectors to the overall 
emissions target, but said land use (agricultural and forestry) 
calculations were particularly complicated and time-consuming. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
GRP Financing and Kyoto Positions Remain in Line with G-77 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Asked to comment on U.S. proposals to create a new Global 
Climate Fund under the United Nations Framework Convention on 
Climate Change (UNFCC) financial mechanism, Alvarez expressed a 
preference for a financial governance model that allowed the 
developing nations, 'which will be most affected by the natural 
disasters', to determine how adaptation and mitigation funds will be 
spent.  He said World Bank or International Monetary Fund-type 
models were unacceptable.  Queried about the role of the Kyoto 
Protocol post-Copenhagen, he said Annex I country commitments should 
remain intact, but confessed that he was not familiar with the 
details of the 'kill-Kyoto' controversy. 
 
------------------------------------- 
GRP Climate Change Stance NGO Driven 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Alvarez noted that in addition to Undersecretaries Lucille 
Sering, Segfredo Serrano, and Graciano Yumul of the Departments of 
Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), Agriculture, and Science 
and Technology, respectively, as well as representatives from the 
Department of Foreign Affairs, the Philippines' Copenhagen climate 
change delegation would contain a large private sector component. 
Alvarez said President Arroyo had not yet made up her mind as to 
whether she would attend the Copenhagen talks.  He credited 
Philippine environmental NGOs with driving the GRP's climate change 
position, especially in early stages of negotiations when Philippine 
officials were 'too uninformed and uninterested' to engage 
 
MANILA 00002483  002 OF 002 
 
 
constructively on the issue.  This view was confirmed by all the 
local and international environmental NGOs we spoke to, who credited 
Alvarez with 'opening up the process' to civil society 
participation.  Dr. Helen Mendoza, President of the Philippine 
Network on Climate Change (PNCC), a consortium of ten Philippine 
environmental NGOs, said the group has worked closely with the GRP 
on climate change since the 1992 UN Rio de Janeiro Climate Change 
Summit.  Lory Tan, director of World Wildlife Fund (WWF) 
Philippines, said major portions of the GRP climate change position 
were 'lifted from WWF position papers' that WWF had provided to 
government agencies. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
NGOs Bewildered by Sudden Loss of Climate Change Clout 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) All of the environmental NGO representatives we spoke to 
were bewildered by the apparent change in the GRP's climate change 
position.  'We don't know who they're talking to anymore' commented 
WWF's Lory Tan.  Maria Belinda de la Paz, representative of Haribon, 
the Philippine's major biodiversity NGO, said many in Philippine 
environmental circles assume Secretary Clinton influenced President 
Arroyo to moderate the GRP's position. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Multitude of Voices Hampering Climate Change Policy? 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Another common theme brought up by NGOs involved in the 
climate change process was that the numerous GRP task forces, 
agencies, departments and commissions tasked with climate change 
functions create unproductive bureaucratic rivalries and preclude a 
consistent GRP position.  Various NGO representatives described how 
the Inter-Agency Commission on Climate Change, created in 1991, 
which was originally mandated to prepare the GRP's climate change 
position, has lost influence to the Presidential Task Force on 
Climate Change (PTFCC, created in 2007) and the Office of the 
Presidential Adviser on Climate Change (created in 2008).  To 
further complicate matters, in its short lifetime, leadership of the 
PTFCC has passed from the DENR to the Department of Energy, and is 
currently chaired by the President.  Although the recently passed 
Philippine Climate Change Act (septel) is intended to clarify the 
climate change hierarchy, NGO representatives complained that 
crucial UN climate change for a, such as the 2007 summit in Bali and 
November's Barcelona talks, featured GRP negotiating teams with dual 
(or dueling) heads. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment:  Recent statements by President Arroyo and Climate 
Change Advisor Alvarez indicate a welcome moderation of the GRP 
climate change position.  Questions remain as to whether this view 
will manifest itself as a consistent negotiating position in 
Copenhagen.  Some of the GRP's previous policy appears to have been 
personality driven, such as the role played at UN climate change 
conferences by Bernarditas "Ditas" de Castro Muller, a retired GRP 
diplomat residing in Geneva.  Although an environmental advisor to 
the Philippine government, she is also a lead negotiator and 
coordinator for the G77 group.  In past UN climate talks, Muller has 
aggressively advocated unrealistically stringent binding emissions 
reduction targets for developed countries and taken a 'hard G77' 
line on financing, technology and other issues.  However, if 
President Arroyo leads the delegation in Copenhagen, it is likely 
the Philippines will maintain a pragmatic approach, in the hope of 
achieving an agreement that could bolster Arroyo's legacy and help 
strengthen her and her party for the May 2010 elections.  While it 
remains unclear which Philippine agency will ultimately be 
responsible for climate change policy, the Philippine vulnerability 
to climate change ensures that the issue will remain prominent. 
This gives the USG an opportunity to engage a moderate and 
influential G77 member in substantive discussions on global actions. 
 End Comment. 
 
KENNEY