VZCZCXRO0205
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHOS #0471/01 3420903
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 080903Z DEC 09
FM AMCONSUL LAGOS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1099
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 0654
RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH PRIORITY 0052
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000471 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL, INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI NI
SUBJECT: MORE LAGOS VIEWS AND NEWS ON YAR'ADUA 
 
REF: A. LAGOS 462 
     ¶B. ABUJA 2174 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: CG Donna Blair; Reasons Sections 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (C) Some Lagos observers point to the risk of renewed 
unrest in the Niger Delta and behind-the-scenes political 
machinations from possible challengers if VP Jonathan becomes 
head of state.  Others pray for Yar'Adua to survive.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------- 
STATE OF PLAY AND A SENSE OF JONATHAN 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Yinka Odumakin, a ConGen Lagos activist contact, 
discussed President Yar'Adua's health condition in-depth 
with PolOff and PolSpec December 3.  Odumakin doubts that 
the President "is coming back alive and if he does, he will 
be a vegetable," adding he had heard that the President was 
on life support.  Odumakin offered that Nigeria currently 
has "the most incompetent President it has ever had" because, 
for the first time, even past leaders are publicly 
criticizing him.  Furthermore, Yar'Adua has not been in a 
position to lead for a long time as several people at "the 
Villa," including his wife, have been holding him hostage 
and controlling him. Vice President Goodluck Jonathan is an 
"outsider and not a strong character."  However, he will have 
support from the South-South, but only for ethnic reasons. 
Odumakin emphasized that the President's absence leaves 
Nigeria with no leadership.  (NOTE: Odumakin is one of 
the 55 concerned Nigerians that issued a press statement on 
December 2, demanding that President Yar'Adua resign on 
health grounds.  END NOTE.) 
 
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DELTA VIEW 
---------- 
 
¶3. (C) "The people in the Niger Delta are not fools," 
according to "Vanguard" Newspaper publication "Sweet 
Crude" editor Hector Igbikiowubo.  VP Jonathan was not put 
in place democratically and is considered spineless.  "He 
(the VP) will get what he deserves," Igbikiowubo said in a 
December 3 conversation with ConGen Lagos officers. 
"Nigerians will take care of the problem either 
constitutionally or not.  Just because there is a constitution 
does not mean that it will necessarily be followed or used, 
" Igbikiowubo continued. 
 
¶4. (C) Edo State Governor Adams Oshiomhole categorically denied 
in a telcon with PolOff December 4 press reports that he had 
allied with Governor Bukola Saraki and James Ibori to force 
VP Jonathan to resign.  Oshiomhole noted that he is not a member 
of the People's Democratic Party and stressed that he supports 
the constitution.  (NOTE: Oshiomhole is a former labor leader and 
enjoys widespread popular support even outside his home 
state of Edo.  END NOTE.)  PolOff plans to visit Edo State 
early in the week of December 7 and will follow up in a 
call on Oshiomhole in Benin City. 
 
-------------------- 
WATCHING AND WAITING 
-------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) President Yar'Adua's condition was also a key point 
of discussion in a December 2 meeting between ConGen Lagos 
Pol/Econ reps and Toyin Caxton-Martins of Governor 
Fashola's senior staff in Lagos State.  Caxton-Martins 
noted that many Nigerians suffer from the "Father of All" 
syndrome when it comes to the way they perceive government 
leaders.  She believes that the secrecy surrounding the 
President's health condition stems from this kind of 
cultural norm, which she felt must die out 
if Nigeria is to develop into a modern democracy. 
Caxton-Martins continued that the secrecy has also made 
Nigerians feel like "their back is against the wall," and 
has caused unnecessary alarm about the President being ill. 
 
¶6. (C) Another Lagos State contact reiterated that the 
Governor's office is watching the situation closely.  "We 
 
LAGOS 00000471  002 OF 002 
 
 
are praying that the President will not die, but we firmly 
support upholding the constitution if he does," this Lagos 
Governor's office source emphasized. 
 
BLAIR