VZCZCXRO2691
RR RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHNEH
DE RUEHCI #0334/01 3561103
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221103Z DEC 09
FM AMCONSUL KOLKATA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2517
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2419
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI 1021
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 1024
RUEHNEH/AMCONSUL HYDERABAD 0087
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 0643
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 3146

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000334 
 
TERREP 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/INSB (TITUS), S/CT, INR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PTER PINS PGOV CASC IN BG
SUBJECT: INDIA-BANGLADESH COUNTERTERRORISM COOPERATION HITS NORTHEAST 
INDIAN ULFA INSURGENCY 
 
REF: DHAKA 1092 
 
¶1.   (SBU) Summary: India's recent arrests of United Liberation 
Front of Assam's (ULFA) chairman and senior leadership is a 
setback for the northeastern state's most prominent insurgent 
group.  While Bangladesh has officially denied facilitating the 
arrests, its cooperation with India appears to be an open secret 
amongst security professionals and journalists.  According to 
analysts who cover northeast insurgencies, ULFA and other 
northeast insurgent groups no longer view Bangladesh as a safe 
haven from where they can operate with impunity.  The arrests 
will adversely impact, but not eliminate, ULFA's ability to 
conduct terrorist attacks in India.  More importantly, it may 
bring ULFA to the negotiating table.  Kolkata's PolFSN traveled 
to Assam's capital of Guwahati from December 7 - 9 and spoke 
with a range of people - security experts, academics, police, 
journalists and ordinary people - and found that the prospects 
for peace appear to be brightening in this insurgency-wracked 
northeastern state.  This emerging bilateral counterterrorism 
cooperation may help convince India of the value of a regional 
approach to counterterrorism. 
 
 
 
Bangladesh: No Longer a ULFA Safehaven 
 
 
 
¶2.   (SBU) On December 2 the government of Assam arrested ULFA 
founder and chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa, deputy military 
commander Raju Baruah, and their families.  ULFA's foreign 
secretary Sasha Choudhury and finance secretary Chitraban 
Hazarika had been arrested earlier on November 5.  Officially, 
the insurgents either surrendered to, or were arrested by, 
Indian police on Indian territory without the involvement of the 
Government of Bangladesh (Reftel).  However, according to G.M. 
Srivastav, the security advisor to the Assam state government, 
Rajkhowa's arrest at the India-Bangladesh border in Dawki, 
Meghalaya, was the result of a long planning and coordination 
process between Indian and Bangladeshi security agencies. 
Bangladesh preferred to "push back" or render the detained 
individuals to India in the absence of a formal extradition 
treaty.  The Assam state police officer in charge of law and 
order, B.J. Mahanta, told PolFSN that Bangladesh had recently 
frozen ULFA bank accounts; however, this could not be confirmed 
with Bangladesh bank officials. 
 
 
 
¶3.   (SBU) Since ULFA's founding in 1979, and particularly in 
the last two decades, Rajkhowa and his colleagues are alleged to 
have led the violent movement from safe houses in Dhaka and 
other locations in Bangladesh and Bhutan.  According to analysts 
who cover northeast insurgencies, ULFA and other groups 
targeting the Government of India no longer view Bangladesh as a 
safe haven from where they can operate and plan their attacks 
with immunity.  Press has reported that ULFA's military 
commander, Paresh Barua, has fled Bangladesh and is hiding in 
the jungles of Northern Burma along its border with China's 
Yunnan province. 
 
 
 
The Guwahati Consensus: ULFA Down, But Not Yet Out 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Security experts, academics and journalists in 
Guwahati agree that Rajkhowa's arrest and Paresh Barua's 
departure from Bangladesh will adversely impact, but not 
eliminate, ULFA's ability to conduct terrorist attacks in India. 
 B.J. Mahanta told PolFSN that ULFA is "still able to set off 
the occasional blast" either by itself, or by outsourcing it to 
another sympathetic insurgent group.  However, more important 
than the reduced ability to conduct attacks is the propaganda 
value of Rajkhowa's arrest and the perceived counterterrorism 
cooperation with Bangladesh.  According to a previous ULFA 
negotiator, the leader's arrest and elimination of a Bangladesh 
safehaven will enhance the GoI's bargaining position with ULFA, 
if it decides to return to talks.  According to conflict 
resolution analyst Nani Mahanta, ULFA is looking for a 
face-saving measure to return to the table.  A second analyst, 
Mrinal Talukdar, opined that in order to break the stalemate, it 
was necessary for the GoI to isolate Barua, who had been adamant 
on sovereignty, and establish Rajkhowa as the only credible 
 
KOLKATA 00000334  002 OF 002 
 
 
negotiator who could lead ULFA on a path of political dialogue. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The recent India-Bangladesh counterterrorism 
cooperation is a positive development that will improve the 
GoI's ability to counter insurgency and encourage separatist 
groups to enter negotiations.  Furthermore, the tactical 
cooperation is an important confidence-building measure in the 
run-up to the visit by Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina 
to India in January 2010.  The insurgencies in Assam and the 
rest of northeast India have had limited effect on U.S. 
interests, as American citizens and companies are not targets in 
the campaigns.  However, given the U.S. interest in improved 
regional stability and promoting host country support for 
regional counterterrorism initiatives, it is worthwhile 
considering how the USG can further support the nascent 
counterterrorism cooperation between the two countries. 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) Embassy Dhaka has cleared on this cable. 
PAYNE