VZCZCXYZ0002
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKG #1140/01 3551606
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 211605Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0433
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE 0129
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA IMMEDIATE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0003
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS
RUEHKG/AMEMBASSY KINGSTON

UNCLAS KINGSTON 001140 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (VDEPIRRO) (WSMITH) (JMACK-WILSON) 
WHA/EPSC (MROONEY) (FCORNEILLE) 
EEB/IFD/ODF (MSIEMER) 
EEB/ESC/IEC (GGRIFFIN) 
EEB/ESC/IEC/EPC (MMCMANUS) 
EEB/TRA (VLIMAYE-DAVIS) 
INR/RES (RWARNER) 
INR/I (SMCCORMICK) 
SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS AND FAS 
TREASURY FOR ERIN NEPHEW 
EXPORT IMPORT BANK FOR ANNETTE MARESH 
USTDA FOR NATHAN YOUNG AND PATRICIA ARRIAGADA 
OPIC FOR ALISON GERMAK 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ETRD ENRG EFIN EINV EAIR PREL PINR SOCI TRSY
EIND, IDB, OPIC, IBRD, IMF, XL, JM 
SUBJECT: Jamaica: Threats of Protests Against "Wicked" Tax Hike 
Forces PM Golding To "Re-Examine" Them, Possible Snag For IMF Deal? 
 
REF: KINGSTON 759; KINGSTON 1050; KINGSTON 737; KINGSTON 956 
KINGSTON 743; KINGSTON 521; KINGSTON 59 
 
Summary and Analysis 
 
------------------------------ 
 
¶1. (SBU) Sweeping tax increases and further progress on an 
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Standby Agreement were the 
subjects of two significant speeches by Prime Minister (PM) Bruce 
Golding and Audley Shaw, Minister of Finance and the Public 
Service, in a special Parliamentary session held on December 17 
(Reftel A).  Shaw announced extensive new taxes on gasoline, 
cigarettes, and electricity, as well as a one percentage point 
increase in the General Consumption Tax (GCT).  Most painful to 
poorer Jamaicans would be the elimination of many of the GCT 
exemptions on goods and services including a range of basic food 
items.  The Opposition Peoples' National Party (PNP) wasted no time 
in responding calling the tax hike "cruel" and "wicked" in 
Parliament.  The PNP also mobilized its forces over the weekend, 
calling for "disciplined" and peaceful protests to begin December 
21, to culminate in a face-to-face consultation on December 30.  PM 
Golding appeared to buckle to criticism, and released a statement 
on December 20, saying, "I have heard the cry and the appeal of the 
Jamaican people." He announced he will "re-examine" the tax package 
to find suitable alternatives for securing the JD$21 billion (USD 
$237 million) of revenue required to support the program being 
negotiated with the IMF, while also limiting the burden on poorer 
Jamaicans.  The JLP missed an important opportunity to link the tax 
increase with a debt reduction plan that would fall on the 
shoulders of wealthier Jamaicans.  This mistake also gave the PNP 
ammunition to fire back on the JLP, saying the tax hike was 
inequitable and unjust.  Hopefully the PNP will recognize that any 
organized protests in response  to the tax hike could quickly could 
get out of hand, creating civil unrest and possibly hurting the 
tourism sector, one of the few bright spots in the local economy. 
End Summary and Analysis 
 
 
 
Golding's Speech In Parliament 
 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In Parliament Golding spoke of the possible sale of Air 
Jamaica to Caribbean Airlines in an effort to shed liabilities and 
accelerate an IMF agreement.  He announced that the proposed 
expansion of Petroleum Jamaica's (PetroJam) refinery, in 
partnership with Venezuela (PDVSA), cannot be supported by a 
sovereign guarantee.  Golding also revealed that the Chinese will 
build a new office for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign 
Trade.  Most noteworthy was the fact that both Shaw and Golding 
failed to provide specifics for how the GOJ intends to address 
restructuring of its massive domestic debt, an issue that is on the 
minds of many Jamaicans.  However, Golding said he was satisfied 
with the openness of the market players, who he said "now 
understand that their interests are inextricably tied to those of 
Jamaica." 
 
 
 
Third Tax Hike This Year 
 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Shaw reiterated the many challenges facing the local 
economy, including negative productivity growth and persistent 
fiscal imbalances, problems magnified by the global economic 
downturn (Reftels B, C, D).  He provided details for the third tax 
package for this fiscal year (nine months to December), amounting 
to a projected JMD$22 billion (US$ 248 million) in new tax revenue 
(equivalent to nearly two percent of GDP).  This will bring the 
total estimated tax increase for this fiscal year to JMD$48 billion 
(US$541 million) or 3.78 percent of GDP, unless Golding implements 
revisions as he has suggested.  NOTE: It is also unclear how any 
revisions in the proposed tax package will be received by the IMF, 
which appeared to time its announcement to Golding's speech in 
parliament END NOTE). 
 
 
 
Taxing Across the Board-Public Outraged 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶4. (U) Shaw announced a 15 percent ad valorem tax on gasoline (this 
is in addition to the U.S. 10 cents tax  per liter added in April) 
and a 20 percent increase in the tax on cigarettes.  The GCT will 
be raised by one percentage point, but more significant is the 
drastic reduction of the number of goods and services that were 
previously exempt.  It is the new taxes on basic food items such as 
fruits, vegetables, beans, eggs, flour and fish that has generated 
such outrage among the populace.  In addition, GCT now will be 
applied to residential electric bills for all electricity use above 
200 kilowatt hours per month.  Shaw tried to couch the move as a 
strategy for promoting energy conservation, and sought to downplay 
its impact by saying it would not affect 310,000 households out of 
the country's estimated 540,000. 
 
 
 
IMF Team Agrees On Key Elements With GOJ, But, Golding Backtracks 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------------ 
 
¶5. (U) At the same time of the Parliamentary speeches, Trevor 
Alleyne, head of the IMF mission to Jamaica, said in a press 
release, "The Jamaican authorities and an IMF staff mission have 
reached agreement on the key elements of a program that the IMF 
would support with a loan under a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) of 
nearly US$1.3 billion over 27 months.  He added, "We will remain in 
close contact with the authorities over the coming days as they 
finalize their economic program in a Letter of Intent, which then 
would be reviewed by IMF management. The IMF's Executive Board 
likely will consider Jamaica's SBA in early 2010.  (NOTE: Any 
revisions in the tax hike announced by Shaw would require further 
discussions with the IMF and could lead to delays in bringing the 
SBA to the Executive Board. END NOTE). 
 
 
 
Shaw Says U.S. Supports Jamaica on IMF Deal 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶6. (U) Shaw said that he met with U.S. Treasury Deputy Assistant 
Secretary for the Western Hemisphere Dr. Nancy Lee in Istanbul and 
that "in a meeting with our U.S. Ambassador Anthony Johnson last 
Tuesday she said the United States is very supportive of a very 
substantial financial package from the IMF and other multilateral 
institutions to back this deal, but only in the context of an 
agreement that will solve the problem in the long term."  Shaw went 
on to say the U.S. has been supportive in the country's tax reform 
 
 
 
 
 
 
efforts and highlighted specific technical assistance provided by 
the U.S. Treasury's office of Overseas Technical Assistance (OTA) 
and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). 
 
 
 
Golding: Cooperation of the Market is Crucial For Debt Solution 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) In a follow-up speech to Shaw's presentation on new 
austerity measures, PM Golding sought to provide context for the 
"perilous state of the economy" and emphasized that the GOJ's 
options are "extremely limited."  He said he anticipated a war of 
words to ensure, cautioned "truth was likely to be the first 
casualty," but noted that "Jamaica's future may be the greatest 
casualty."  He said the budget deficit will not be wiped out by the 
current revenue measures, and therefore other strategies will have 
to be employed.  Golding stressed that JMD$85 billion (US$ 959 
million) in annual debt servicing is at interest rates of between 
16 to 25 percent, which he noted is the highest of anywhere in the 
world.  He also said "the GOJ is pursuing a program, although it is 
not signed off on yet, that will address the high interest rate 
problem, but cooperation of the market in this is crucial." (NOTE: 
Many listeners were anticipating more specifics for addressing the 
exorbitant debt problem to complement the tax package.  Also with 
Golding indicating he may revise the tax increase, it is not clear 
how much this may delay IMF negotiations.  END NOTE). 
 
 
 
Shedding Contingent Liabilities 
 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Golding spoke of a possible sale of Air Jamaica to 
Caribbean Airlines in an effort to comply with some of the terms of 
a potential IMF deal (Reftels E and F).  He added that the GOJ 
would assume all existing liabilities for Air Jamaica as part of a 
privatization deal, but said the GOJ is not prepared to accept any 
future liabilities (possibly hinting that the airline would be 
closed if a buyer could not be secured in the short-term).  (NOTE: 
The GOJ is still in talks with private equity group Indigo 
Partners, operators of Spirit Airlines, about the purchase of Air 
Jamaica END NOTE).  He also emphasized that the proposed expansion 
of Petroleum Jamaica's (PetroJam) refinery, the cost of which has 
increased from US$ 600 million to US$ 1.2 billion, cannot be 
supported by a sovereign guarantee.  He said, "Given the country's 
fiscal and debt situation we cannot absorb that kind of liability." 
 
 
 
 
¶9. (U) Golding said the government also plans to divest its 45% 
equity stake in the JAMALCO bauxite plant; the balance is owned by 
U.S. firm Alcoa.  The GOJ also will sell its 20% share in the 
monopoly power provider Jamaica Public Service (JPS) and intends to 
privatize the Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston. 
(NOTE:  The GOJ privatized Sangster International Airport in 
Montego Bay in 2003 End Note).  Golding also said there were plans 
to privatize the Port Authority of Jamaica, which operates all the 
major ports on the island. 
 
 
 
Chinese Investments 
 
---------------------- 
 
 
 
 
 
 
¶10. (U) Golding said the Chinese have agreed to build a new 
building for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade.  He 
also noted that the new convention center currently being built by 
the Chinese will "never break even" and will require government 
subsidy in the future. He also stated, that the Trelawny Stadium 
built for Cricket World Cup 2007 remains "a white elephant" and 
continues to cost the GOJ money. 
 
 
 
PNP Calls Tax Hike "Cruel and Unjust," Pushes For Protests 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
----------- 
 
¶11. (U) The PNP was quick to pounce on the Jamaican Labour Party 
(JLP's) failure to address the debt problem in the their 
presentation, and PNP President Portia Simpson Miller (PSM) labeled 
the tax hike, "wicked."  PNP Member of Parliament and Former 
Finance Minister Omar Davies said the JLP's plan for tax hikes was 
"cruel and unjust" and added that it is going to place an undue 
burden on the poor and "once again the wealthy are not paying their 
fair share." Davies said this was essentially the third budget 
presentation in eight months, but "the JLP has still not gotten it 
right." The PNP held a meeting of the party's National Executive 
Council (NEC) over the weekend with PSM saying "we shall take no 
more, telling the audience, "are you ready to demand the government 
roll back the unjust and inequitable taxes?  She continued, "Then 
go forth, comrades with discipline." "Await the instructions for 
the various protests across the country. " 
 
 
 
Analysis 
 
------------ 
 
¶12. (SBU)  After months of false starts, the JLP finally has 
announced concrete plans to try to raise new revenue and is closing 
in on an IMF deal, only to backtrack three days later saying it may 
revise the tax hike.  The JLP missed an important opportunity to 
link the tax increase with a debt reduction plan that would fall on 
the shoulders of wealthier Jamaicans.  This mistake also gave the 
PNP ammunition to fire back on the JLP, saying the tax hike was 
inequitable and unjust.  The press release from the IMF noting that 
a deal should come early in the new year should have calmed the 
markets, but the uncertainty of the tax plan and the possibility of 
protests will mute benefits of this message.  Jamaicans, already 
suffering under a deteriorating economic climate, will not welcome 
the rash of new taxes, but Golding's apparent backtracking will 
likely embolden the PNP.   Hopefully the PNP will recognize that 
any organized protests in response  to the tax hike could quickly 
could get out of hand, creating civil unrest and possibly hurting 
the tourism sector, one of the few bright spots in the local 
economy (Reftel G).  End Analysis. 
Parnell