VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKG #1050/01 3411544
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 071542Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0345
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEHDG/AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO IMMEDIATE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE 0108
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA IMMEDIATE
RUEHKG/AMEMBASSY KINGSTON

UNCLAS KINGSTON 001050 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (VDEPIRRO) (WSMITH) (JMACK-WILSON) 
WHA/EPSC (MROONEY) (FCORNEILLE) 
EEB/IFD/ODF (MSIEMER) 
EEB/ESC/IEC (GGRIFFIN) 
EEB/ESC/IEC/EPC (MMCMANUS) 
INR/RES (RWARNER) 
INR/I (SMCCORMICK) 
SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS AND FAS 
TREASURY FOR ERIN NEPHEW 
EXPORT IMPORT BANK FOR ANNETTE MARESH 
USTDA FOR NATHAN YOUNG AND PATRICIA ARRIAGADA 
OPIC FOR ALISON GERMAK 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ETRD ENRG EFIN EINV PREL PINR SOCI TRSY OPIC
IBRD, IMF, XL, JM 
SUBJECT: JAMAICA SINKS FURTHER INTO RECESSION 
 
REF: KINGSTON 914; KINGSTON 634; KINGSTON 922 
 
Summary 
 
----------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) The Jamaican economy sank deeper into recession during the 
July to September time frame, chalking up the seventh consecutive 
quarter of economic contraction.  Real GDP declined by 3.1 percent 
on the back of continuing declines in the goods producing sectors, 
and bauxite/alumina in particular.  The deepening recession comes 
amidst fears of a fiscal crisis brought on by the country's 
gargantuan stock of public debt.  The fiscal deficit deteriorated 
to USD 345 million, making it almost impossible for the Government 
of Jamaica (GOJ) to implement a stimulus package.  Options are 
narrowing as an International Monetary Fund (IMF) Standby Agreement 
is months behind schedule and international rating's agencies, 
Moody's and Fitch join Standard and Poor's in downgrading Jamaica's 
credit rating.  The economic crisis could intensify in the near 
term as any recovery in the global economy will impact Jamaica with 
a lag effect.  Sustainable recovery in Jamaica will also hinge on a 
resolution of the fiscal situation in general and the debt overhang 
in particular.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
Economic Depression Deepens 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The global recession has been particularly harsh on 
Jamaica due to its prolonged battle with structural problems such 
as declining production and productivity and high debt (Reftel A). 
Real GDP declined by 3.1 percent during July to September 2009, the 
seventh consecutive quarter of contraction.  The third quarter 
decline also contributed to the 3.2 percent downturn in the economy 
for the nine month period to September.  There was also a 
commensurate fallout in unemployment which rose to 11.3 percent at 
the end of July 2009.  (NOTE: Employment data has a four month lag, 
END NOTE).  Almost 40,000 persons have been displaced since July 
2008, and the situation would have been worse but for the 6.3 
percent (13,700) jump in employment in the agriculture sector. 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) The fallout in economic activity continues to be most 
evident in the goods producing sectors, which declined by 10.3 
percent.  Mining output, down 59 percent, was the major contributor 
to the downturn in the real economy.  Alumina production fell by 
65.7 percent, while bauxite output was down 21 percent.  This is 
not surprising, as bauxite and alumina have been major casualties 
of the global economic meltdown, with world demand for both 
commodities waning.  This, combined with Jamaica's high energy 
costs have led to the closure of three of the country's major 
bauxite/alumina operations (Reftel B).  This has had a multiplier 
effect on output, as these high earning workers have curtailed 
their consumption of goods and services.  Commercial banks 
operating near these operations already have observed a fall out in 
business as well as an increase in loan delinquency (Reftel C). 
The Construction and Manufacturing sectors were also down 5.8 and 
4.0 percent, respectively.  The fallout in construction has been 
dire as the sector employs a large number of unemployed youths and 
had been growing by double digits prior to the onset of the global 
recession.  At the end of July 2009, unemployment in the sector was 
up 13.5 percent (14,800 jobs lost). 
 
 
 
Agriculture Grows 
 
 
 
 
------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) Agricultural production, up 10 percent, was the only 
segment of the real economy to record growth during the September 
quarter.  This is the fourth consecutive quarter of growth in the 
sector and signals a marked recovery following Tropical Storm 
Gustav, as well as years of moribund performance.  However, 
production levels still lag 1996 levels.  The return to buoyancy in 
the sector has been attributed to a productivity program initiated 
by the Ministry of Agriculture.  Domestic and export demand for 
agricultural products increased on the back of stable prices and 
more consistent supplies and quality there also has been a jump in 
financing to the sector.  The two largest commercial banks have 
established special loan windows for small businesses, with a focus 
on those in the agriculture sector.  Agriculture also has come in 
for a disproportionate amount of attention because of the drive to 
replace part of the country's near USD 1 billion food import bill 
in order to close the external financing gap. 
 
 
 
And Tourism Resilient 
 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Tourism, the mainstay of the services sectors, also 
remained resilient during the first eight months of 2009. 
Stop-over arrivals to August 2009 increased by 4.1 percent to 1.3 
million visitors.  At this rate of growth, Jamaica's tourism 
industry remains the best performing in the region.  While arrivals 
from the U.S. market were up slightly at 2.1 percent, the lion's 
share of the increase was attributable to a 28 percent spike in 
arrivals from Canada.  The surge in Canadian visitors is likely due 
to the resiliency of its economy during this current downturn 
coupled with the advantages of an appreciating currency.  Jamaica 
also has marketed aggressively to Canada, and discounts being 
offered by some of the major hotels have drawn a number of 
Canadians to the island.  Although discounted prices will stymie 
earnings in the short term, they could bear huge dividends when the 
travel industry recovers in the form of repeat visitors. 
 
 
 
 
Fiscal Crisis Intensifies...Thwarts Fiscal Stimulus 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The deepening recession could not have come at a worse 
time, as the deteriorating fiscal dynamics make it almost 
impossible for the GOJ to implement a fiscal stimulus package. 
This injection of government spending is required to compensate for 
the significant decline in private consumption, observed since the 
beginning of the fiscal year in April 2009.  (NOTE: Consumption 
taxes have lagged targets by up to USD 78 million for the first 
half of the fiscal year, END NOTE).  On the contrary, the fiscal 
malaise has forced the GOJ to slash spending on recurrent and 
capital projects to maintain its fiscal deficit below 10 percent. 
It is this reduction in public investment which has contributed to 
the contraction in economic growth over the last two years. 
 
 
 
 
Debt --- GOJ's Achilles Heel 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) During the July to September quarter, central government 
operations generated a fiscal deficit of USD 345 million, USD 88.3 
million more than planned.  The result would have been worse, but 
for the USD 94 million cut in spending on recurrent operational 
 
 
 
 
 
costs (rent, utilities, etc...).  The greater than budgeted for 
deficit was due to a combination of rising debt servicing costs, 
increased wages, and declining revenue flows.  Revenue flows were 
USD 18 million below projections, as production and consumption 
taxes continue to suffer in the down economy.  However, it is the 
massive debt overhang which continues to be the GOJ's Achilles 
Heel, as debt servicing costs place a disproportionate burden on 
the expenditure budget.  (NOTE: PM Golding has given the public 
repeated assurances that his administration will not renege on the 
country's debt paying obligations, most recently at the November 22 
Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) conference, when he told attendees, "The 
holders of government bonds are assured that our commitment to them 
is inviolable ...We will continue to pay our debts and maintain our 
proud record."  END NOTE. 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) For the first six months of the fiscal year, interest 
payments on the debt accounted for forty-two and sixty-three cents 
of every dollar of expenditure and revenues, respectively.  The 
deterioration in the fiscal situation in general, and the debt 
dynamics in particular, have led Moody's Investor Service and Fitch 
to downgrade Jamaica's debt ratings to Caa1 and C respectively. 
According to both agencies, the downgrade reflects the country's 
increased macroeconomic pressures and the sharp fiscal 
deterioration, which has resulted in unsustainable debt dynamics 
and heightened the risk of some form of debt restructuring. With 
the degrees of freedom narrowing with each passing day of inaction, 
the three ratings agencies are of the opinion that Jamaica might 
well be forced to enter into discussions with local creditors for a 
debt restructuring program.  The protracted delays in finalizing a 
Stand-by Agreement with the IMF have only added to the rising 
levels of uncertainty. 
 
 
 
Inflation Moderates 
 
-------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Inflation, which moderated to 3.1 percent, continues to be 
one of the few success stories in the Jamaican economy.  The return 
to stability comes amidst a number of policy-induced measures, 
including two tax packages and increased user fees.  And while 
prices for the quarter remain high by international standards, they 
were still below the 4.8 percent registered in the corresponding 
quarter of 2008.  Inflation for the calendar year to September 2009 
was 7.3 percent, well below the 16.9 percent registered for the 
same period in 2008.  A combination of domestic and external 
factors provided the underlying impetus for the moderation in 
prices.  Chief among these was the relative stability in 
international energy and food prices.  This was aided by the 
stabilizing of the Jamaican currency.  Increased supplies of 
domestic agricultural products also had a tempering effect on 
prices, particularly as food has the highest weight (almost 50 
percent) in the basket of goods and services. 
 
 
 
Foreign Exchange Market Stabilizes 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶9. (SBU) Despite rising uncertainty and waning confidence, the 
foreign exchange market also remained stable during the third 
quarter of 2009, with the real exchange rate appreciating by 2.2 
percent.  This is a major turnaround from the steep depreciation, 
which started in the same quarter last year.  The foreign exchange 
market also has reacted calmly to a series of negative developments 
such as the recent lowering of the country's credit ratings. 
Although external bond prices have fallen, local investors have 
been slow to switch assets because of the: (1) attractive rates of 
 
 
 
 
 
interest being offered locally (up to 9 percent in real terms - 
aided by falling inflation); (2) recent build-up in the stock of 
Net International Reserves (NIR) to USD 1.9 billion, following a 
spike in official financing; (3) likelihood of a Stand-by Agreement 
with the IMF; and, (4) improvement in the country's Balance of 
Payments (BOP), with the current account deficit narrowing to below 
14 percent of GDP from 20 percent a year ago. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The Jamaican economy could plunge further into crisis, 
given the weak economic fundamentals led by the worsening fiscal 
situation.  With confidence hanging by a thread, only the 
successful conclusion of an IMF Stand-by Agreement stands between 
Jamaica and a full blown crisis.  However, a favorable IMF deal 
should not be viewed as a panacea to the country's economic ills, 
as any lasting solution will largely depend on the fortitude of the 
current JLP-led administration to effect the structural changes 
required to arrest the economic and social malaise.  The timing of 
these changes is critical: as time passes the range of options 
begins to narrow even further, making the necessary adjustments 
much more painful.  However, Jamaica has become so weakened by its 
long history of bad choices and inaction that, even if the right 
choices were to be effected, they might not produce any green 
shoots in the near term.  End Comment. 
Parnell