VZCZCXYZ0003
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKG #1040/01 3362040
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 022038Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0335
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE 0101
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA IMMEDIATE
RUEHDG/AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO
RUEHKG/AMEMBASSY KINGSTON

UNCLAS KINGSTON 001040 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (VDEPIRRO) (WSMITH) (JMACK-WILSON) 
S/SECC (JPERSHING) 
WHA/EPSC (MROONEY) (FCORNEILLE) (FCOLON) 
OES (LSPERLING) 
EEB/ESC/IEC/EPC (MMCMANUS) 
INR/RES (RWARNER) 
INR/I (SMCCORMICK) 
SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS AND FAS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON SENV UNEP ENRG EINV PREL PINR SOCI KGHG XL JM
SUBJECT: Jamaica Outlines Position For Copenhagen Climate Change 
Conference 
 
Summary 
 
------------ 
 
¶1. (SBU) As the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) prepares to attend the 
upcoming Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, they are also 
finalizing the Second National Communication (SNC) on the United 
Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) as required by treaty 
signatories.  The GOJ reports their own 46 percent increase in 
carbon dioxide emissions, but outlines as their negotiating 
position unrealistic emission reduction requirements by developed 
countries of 45 percent from 1990 levels by 2020.  The Copenhagen 
team from the GOJ knows the outcome of the conference will be 
uncertain, but are hoping for some progress.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
1.5 Degrees Or Die? 
 
------------------------- 
 
 ¶2. (SBU) On 25 November 2009, EmbOff and USAID representative 
attended the GOJ's public presentation of the draft SNC sponsored 
by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).  Two stated goals 
of the panel were to outline the SNC and to provide stakeholders 
with an opportunity to ask questions of members of the GOJ's 
Copenhagen delegation, which will include Minister of Foreign 
Affairs and Foreign Trade Kenneth Baugh and approximately eight 
other participants.  Delegates at the presentation included Leonie 
Barnaby, Office of the Prime Minister; Jeffery Spooner, Climate 
Branch Head, Jamaica Meteorological Service (JMS), and Clifford 
Mahlung, JMS Lead Climate Change Negotiator.  The GOJ has joined 
the 39 member Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in calling 
for action to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.  The 
AOSIS's negotiating positions include: 
 
 
 
-- Developed nations must reduce their overall CO2 levels by more 
than 45 percent of 1990 levels by the year 2020, to be followed by 
a reduction in CO2 levels by more than 95 percent of 1990 levels by 
the year 2050; 
 
 
 
-- Limit atmospheric CO2 to 350 parts per million; 
 
 
 
-- Funding for adaptation (total costs for all countries is 
estimated at USD 100 billion per year); 
 
 
 
-- Compensation for loss and damage; 
 
 
 
-- Technology transfer and capacity building; 
 
 
 
-- Non-Annex I and non major emitter countries must adopt low 
carbon programs for significant deviation from the current 
baseline; 
 
 
 
-- A five-year second commitment period from 2013-2017; 
 
 
 
-- A shared vision by all countries to peak CO2 emissions by 2020, 
with a 85 percent reduction by 2050. 
 
 
Copenhagen Is Uncertain 
 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Spooner stated that in Barcelona, the EU and Australia were 
shown how such dramatic cuts were possible.  Additionally, Mr. 
Mahlung noted that the outcome in Copenhagen is uncertain.  When 
asked what leverage Jamaica has over developed countries, he 
mentioned the AOSIS demonstration in Barcelona and bilateral 
pressure through the G77.  He said that it is unclear what a 
"politically binding agreement," as opposed to a treaty, might 
mean.  When faced with what could be perceived as anti-US sentiment 
from one member of the audience, the delegates were quick to place 
discussions in perspective, pointing out that all of Jamaica's 
environmental issues could not be blamed on global warming. 
 
 
 
Jamaica Among the Most Vulnerable 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Mr. Mahlung claimed that Jamaica is among the 20 countries 
most vulnerable to climate change, due to its heavy reliance on 
beach-front tourism and low-elevation population centers.  While 
less than one percent of greenhouse gas emissions were attributed 
to small island developing states, Jamaica's SNC shows their 
greenhouse gas emissions increasing by 46 percent from 2000-2005, 
largely due to energy and transportation sector growth. Within 
Jamaica, awareness of climate change has increased from less than 
50 percent of the population in 2005 to more than 70 percent this 
year.  One uniquely Jamaican outreach effort is being employed by 
popular local reggae artists: 
 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3-NAzB8fDU. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) Jamaica's negotiating team for Copenhagen appeared 
well-prepared.  They have been monitoring the proposed Kerry-Boxer 
Senate climate change bill.  However, it is unclear how the massive 
divide in negotiating positions will be bridged for a comprehensive 
agreement.  During the conference, they hinted at a request for 
USAID assistance to quantify the projected impact of global warming 
as their SNC contains several scenarios and indices, but no dollar 
value was assigned to the impact of global warming.  The GOJ 
projects population decreases in the future due to emigration, but 
with a bleak economic outlook, heavy reliance on vulnerable 
industries, and a location in an area susceptible to hurricanes, 
Jamaica's resilience to the effects of climate change remains 
uncertain. 
Parnell