VZCZCXRO3806
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHKUK RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #1342/01 3350948
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 010948Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4807
INFO RHMFISS/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001342 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2019 
TAGS: KDEM PBTS PGOV PREL SU
SUBJECT: NORTH AND SOUTH DEADLOCKED ON ABYEI 
 
REF: A. A0 KHARTOUM 1316 
     ¶B. B) KHARTOUM 1273 
 
Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES ROBERT E. WHITEHEAD, FOR REASONS 1.4 ( 
B), (D) 
 
 ¶1. (C) Summary: Throughout U.S. Special Envoy (SE) to Sudan 
General Scott Gration's November 18-22 meetings in Khartoum, 
the National Congress Party (NCP) and Sudanese People's 
Liberation Movement (SPLM) remained at an impasse over the 
definition of a resident of Abyei in the Abyei Referendum 
Bill. Despite general agreement on other crucial legislation 
-- to include the Southern Sudan Referendum Law, National 
Security Law, and the Blue Nile and South Kordofan State 
Popular Consultation Law -- the SPLM remains adamant that 
nomadic tribes such as the Misseriya are not residents of 
Abyei and therefore do not have the right to vote in the 
January 2011 Abyei referendum on self determination.  For its 
part, the NCP insists that banning the nomads from the vote 
would disenfranchise them as second class citizens.  Passage 
of the legislation prior to the scheduled (but by no means 
certain) adjournment of the National Assembly on December 15 
is required for preparations for the referenda in both the 
South and Abyei to be completed in time.  In a chance 
meeting, the Governor of South Kordofan shared hisQerspective on the difficulty of defining criteria for Abyei 
residency.  End Summary. 
 
----------------------------- 
NCP CAUTIONS SPLM OVER DELAYS 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) While in Khartoum November 18-19 and 22, Special Envoy 
Gration met with the NCP and SPLM in a series of bilateral 
meetings to discuss outstanding issues regarding the census 
and elections and the Abyei Referendum in CPA negotiations. 
Government of National Unity (GoNU) Presidential Advisor 
Ghazi Salahuddin gave an overview of discussions that had 
taken place between Dr. Riek Machar of the Government of 
Southern Sudan (GOSS) and First Vice President Ali Osman Taha 
since General Gration's late November visit (reftel).  Ghazi 
confirmed that three main points continued to hinder 
agreement on outstanding legislation:  the definition of a 
resident of Abyei, the turn-out requirement for the Southern 
Sudan referendum law, and SPLM acceptance of the 2008 census 
as the basis for the April 2010 elections.  According to 
Ghazi, the NCP and SPLM are still wed to the notions of a 
five-part "package deal" consisting of the National Security 
Law, procedural Southern Sudan Referendum law, Blue Nile and 
South Kordofan State Popular Consultation Law, Abyei 
Referendum Law, and SPLM acceptance of the Census.  On 
November 18 he remained optimistic about finding a solution 
to outstanding issues but nonetheless cautioned that any SPLM 
attempt to deliberately draw out the process would have 
negative consequences. 
 
¶3. (C) In SE Gration's meetings with GOSS Vice President Riek 
Machar and his negotiating team, the topic of Abyei residency 
(for the purpose of participating in the Abyei referendum) 
dominated the talks.  SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum and 
GNU Foreign Minister Deng Alor hewed to a hard line, 
insisting that the SPLM would wait out the NCP on the 
definition of Abyei residency.  Amum and Alor contended that 
only Ngok Dinka and a few long-time "other" Sudanese in Abyei 
qualify as residents.  They argued that few Misseriya qualify 
for residency in Abyei because they pass through for only a 
few months each year during annual nomadic migrations.  Pagan 
Amum remarked that "we can wait them out, the NCP will give 
in if we wait long enough."  The eternally optimistic Machar 
nonetheless remained confident that the SPLM would come to 
agreement on other outstanding issues once Abyei was 
resolved. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
SOUTH KORDOFAN GOVERNOR OFFERS ADVICE 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) During a chance encounter in the waiting room at the 
Council of Ministers, South Kordofan State Governor Ahmed 
Haroun shared his perspective on the Abyei issue with members 
of the US delegation.  He declared that devising a political 
solution to Abyei in either Khartoum or Juba would be 
difficult, and suggested leaving the decision on residency to 
the Abyei Referendum Commission that is stipulated in the 
Abyei Protocol of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.  Haroun 
 
KHARTOUM 00001342  002 OF 002 
 
 
said it is imperative for both the NCP and SPLM to engage in 
pro-active advocacy on the ground in the Abyei region to 
quell rumors that border demarcation will hinder movement of 
people and livestock.  (Note. Haroun is widely regarded as 
the most effective individual on either side in defusing 
tension among the Misseriya and Dinka populations in South 
Kordofan.  End note.)  He acknowledged the difficulties 
facing the border demarcation technical committee and said he 
is working to inform the nomadic tribes about the actual 
meaning of the Abyei Border Decision.  Haroun suggested some 
possible fixes that would allow demarcation to proceed, and 
emphasized again that the key message to the Misseriya tribe 
must be that border demarcation does not mean barring them 
from traditional migration corridors south or rescinding 
watering and grazing rights.  Haroun stressed that for their 
part the Ngok Dinka resident in Abyei must accept the 
unmolested passage of the Misseriya tribes during the ongoing 
southward migration. 
 
¶5. (C) Comment: Abyei is the shoal upon which the latest 
round of NCP/SPLM talks has foundered, and there is equal 
blame for hard-line elements from both sides.  At one point 
the SPLM and NCP agreed to accept a four-part package with 
Abyei discussions to follow, but the SPLM pulled back and 
instead offered another formula to resolve the definition of 
residency (in Ngok favor) by using figures from the same 2008 
census that the SPLM had theretofore declined to accept.  On 
November 22, the NCP declined to continue discussing Abyei 
with the SPLM, although NCP policymakers were still 
consulting among themselves on the latest proposal for 
criteria that might be used to define who could and could not 
qualify as a resident of Abyei for the purposes of the 
referendum.  Both sides were in full agreement that solutions 
to the other four outstanding issues are within easy reach. 
It has come down to a matter of political will.  End comment. 
 
WHITEHEAD