VZCZCXRO1547
RR RUEHRN RUEHROV
DE RUEHKM #1407/01 3550742
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 210742Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0028
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 001407 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/21 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDER BESIGYE FORESEES ELECTION 
RELATED VIOLENCE 
 
REF: KAMPALA 01391; KAMPALA 01196 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Aaron Sampson, Pol/Econ Chief, State, Pol/Econ; 
REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) president Kizza 
Besigye, who won 37% percent of the vote in the 2006 presidential 
election and is President Museveni's most formidable challenger for 
2011, told PolOffs on December 15 that government officials and 
security forces are actively obstructing his efforts to organize 
rallies, access local media, raise funds, and travel abroad. 
Besigye said the FDC will use "every available means" to prevent 
Uganda's Electoral Commission, which he views as partisan, from 
organizing any elections, including February 2010 bi-elections for 
two vacant Parliamentary seats.  Besigye warned that rising 
discontent coupled with increased government repression will lead 
to political violence, and urged the U.S. to pressure President 
Museveni to avert a "huge disaster" by respecting democratic norms. 
End Summary. 
 
 
 
 --------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
Government Harassment and Intimidation 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (C) FDC leader and likely presidential challenger Besigye said 
"running battles" with the Ugandan security services and local 
government officials are preventing the FDC from conducting 
business, holding meetings, and addressing the public as allowed 
under the law.  Like many other opposition figures and journalists 
critical of the Museveni regime, Besigye's passport rests with 
government authorities pending resolution of permanently stalled 
treason charges.  Describing himself as a "prisoner" on "temporary 
parole" since he was charged with treason in 2005, Besigye is 
required to provide invitation letters, travel dates, itineraries, 
and reasons for travel to authorities each time he applies to 
recover his passport for travel abroad.  Besigye said the opaque 
and intrusive application process can take three days to three 
weeks and frequently forces him to cancel international 
engagements.  Besigye suspects local authorities of deliberately 
scheduling application hearings to conflict with his proposed 
travel dates. 
 
 
 
¶3. (C) Besigye complained that the Minister of Internal Affairs 
Kirunda Kivejinja and the Inspector General of Police (IGP) 
continue to rely on a provision of the Police Act, already declared 
unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court, to force opposition 
parties to obtain written IGP approval for any meetings involving 
25 people or more. Besigye said local officials in Karamoja in 
northeastern Uganda recently shut down even IGP-authorized events, 
citing a need for verbal authorization from police in Kampala. 
Besigye said last minute cancellations of opposition events by 
government officials inflict substantial financial losses on the 
FDC, which must pay to organize events well in advance.  The most 
recent invocation of the Police Act to break up an FDC event 
occurred December 6 in the western town of Hoima, following the 
December 1 arrest of Hoima's mayor and FDC official, Francis 
Atugonza (ref. A).  Besigye accused the government of arresting 
Atugonza on trumped up "abuse of office" charges to wrest control 
of Hoima's local government from the FDC. 
 
 
 
¶4. (C) Besigye said FDC leaders are also unable to appear on FM 
radio stations outside of Kampala.  Uganda has more than 150 mostly 
privately owned FM radio stations.  Besigye said the FDC is 
generally able to obtain air time in Kampala but has been 
blacklisted from radio stations outside the capital, which Besigye 
said are generally owned by government officials or ruling National 
Resistance Movement (NRM) members.  Besigye said radio stations in 
Karamoja and Fort Portal barred him from appearing on air even 
though the FDC had already paid for the airtime. 
 
 
 
¶5. (C) The FDC leader said the Ugandan government is preventing him 
from fundraising.  He said government intimidation and harassment 
prevents FDC members from purchasing party membership cards or 
openly affiliating themselves with an opposition party.  Private 
 
KAMPALA 00001407  002 OF 003 
 
 
individuals and companies, meanwhile, refrain from writing checks 
to either the FDC or Kizza Besigye for fear of government 
reprisals.  Besigye said an oil company that rents a property from 
him arranged to write rent checks in his lawyer's name to avoid 
provoking government ire. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
 Electoral Opposition: We're All Going to Prison 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
 
 
 ¶6. (C) Besigye reiterated prior FDC statements regarding his 
party's refusal to participate in elections organized by Uganda's 
Electoral Commission, which he and many observers view as partisan 
in favor of the NRM (ref. B).  He said the FDC will not participate 
in "farce" elections organized by the current Commission.  Besigye 
added that the FDC would not withdraw from elections or boycott, 
but will use "every available means" to ensure that elections under 
the current Commission do not take place.  He offered few 
additional details, beyond a vague indication of upcoming legal 
challenges - although he also said the FDC no longer has faith in 
the Ugandan judiciary - and acts of "civic action."  At another 
point Besigye and FDC spokesman Wafula Oguttu said "we are all 
going to go to prison.  The writing is on the wall."  Besigye said 
his pledge to prevent the Electoral Commission from organizing 
elections applies not only to the presidential election in February 
2011, but also to by-elections for two vacant Parliament seats. 
The two by-elections have not yet been scheduled, but will likely 
be held in February 2010. 
 
 
 
----------------------------- 
 
FDC's Electoral Platform 
 
 ----------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (C) Nevertheless, Besigye continues to crisscross Uganda looking 
for votes.  His appeal to voters is based on the general question 
of whether everyday Ugandans feel their lives are getting better or 
worse.  In his stump speeches, Besigye blames increasing poverty, 
rising corruption, deteriorating infrastructure, continued lack of 
electricity, poor schools, and lack of government services on 
President Museveni and NRM mismanagement, and presents himself as 
the candidate of change.  Besigye proposed drastically reducing the 
size of the Ugandan government, by eliminating Resident District 
Commissioners and other administrative structures closely tied to 
President Museveni's "resistance movement" ideology, and clamping 
down on rampant corruption.  Besigye said this will free up 
additional funding for critical yet neglected social services like 
health and education. 
 
 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
International Help to Avert Disaster 
 
------------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶8. (C) Besigye said rising discontent, coupled with increased 
government repression, will eventually result in significant 
violence.  He said the deadly September 10-12 riots in Kampala 
signified an explosion of pent up anger fueled not by Buganda 
nationalists but poverty-stricken unemployed youth.  He noted that 
many of the shops targeted by rioters were supermarkets looted by 
citizens simply looking for food.  He said the increasingly opulent 
lifestyles of senior government leaders is compounding this 
discontent, and that "unless the NRM checks itself and reflects on 
its own legacy, we are headed for a huge disaster."  Besigye said 
the international community needs to act now in order to have a 
positive influence on Uganda's short-term political future.  He 
urged the U.S. to use its leverage with Museveni, both privately 
and publicly through stern statements, to send a message that 
 
KAMPALA 00001407  003 OF 003 
 
 
deviations from democratic norms are not acceptable. 
 
 
 
 ----------------------------------------- 
 
Comment: Don't Dismiss Besigye 
 
----------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶9. (C) Besigye appeared relaxed, thoughtful, and in good humor. 
Having managed to win 37% of the vote in 2006 despite spending a 
good part of the campaign season in prison on trumped up rape, 
terrorism and treason charges, Besigye is a serious presidential 
contender.  While he may not beat President Museveni outright, if a 
free and fair election were run today, Besigye might force Museveni 
below the critical 50% threshold.  Besigye's accusations of 
government intimidation and harassment - particularly in regard to 
disruption of opposition events and access to local media - 
correspond with our own observations.  Left unchecked, continued 
state sponsored harassment of Besigye and the FDC will likely force 
Uganda's political opposition parties to use the only tools left in 
their arsenal - legal disputes, civil disobedience and, 
potentially, violence. 
LANIER