VZCZCXRO6510
PP RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHNEH #0138/01 3621536
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 281536Z DEC 09
FM AMCONSUL HYDERABAD
TO RUEHNEH/AMCONSUL HYDERABAD PRIORITY 0240
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0232
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 0027
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN PRIORITY 0026
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0026
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 0026
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0026
RUEHVI/AMEMBASSY VIENNA PRIORITY 0010
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0026
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 0019
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFIUU/USCENTCOM CCJ5 - PERSONAL FOR MACDILL AFB FL
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HYDERABAD 000138 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: TELANGANA - ALL CALM IN A STATE OF ANARCHY 
 
REF: REFERENCES: A) NEW DELHI 2472, B) HYDERABAD 121, C) HYDERABAD 124, D) HYDERABAD 137 
 
HYDERABAD 00000138  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Longtime Congress party stalwart and 
underperforming Governor of Andhra Pradesh (AP) Narayan Dutt 
Tiwari resigned following a sex scandal involving allegedly 
trafficked women.  Two days later, Chhattisgarh Governor ELS 
Narasimhan, a former Intelligence Bureau (IB) Chief and fluent 
Telugu speaker, was sworn in as Governor of Andhra Pradesh. 
Media speculation about the timing of the revelations in the 
midst of the controversy over Telangana (ref A) has led some 
observers to question whether it will further delay decisive GoI 
action on the statehood issue. END SUMMARY. 
 
A Governor Takes Flight 
----------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) On December 26, Narayan Dutt Tiwari, the Governor of AP, 
tendered his resignation to GoI President Pratibha Patil.  The 
resignation, accepted immediately, came a day after the 24-hour 
Telugu language news channel ABN Andhra Jyothi aired an expose 
embroiling the Governor in a sex scandal.  The report purported 
that Governor Tiwari and officials at Raj Bhavan were 
trafficking young women from Uttarakhand on the pretext of 
employment; these women were then forced to sate the sexual 
advances of the Governor.  The channel broadcast a grainy video 
allegedly showing Governor Tiwari engaged in flagrante with 
three young women at his official residence.  In a scene 
reminiscent of the recently cancelled march on the State 
Assembly in support of Telangana statehood (ref B), Women's 
groups immediately began to protest at the gate of the Raj 
Bhavan.  Media reports indicate that the decision to demand that 
Governor Tiwari vacate his post came from New Delhi following a 
high-level United Progressive Alliance (UPA) meeting chaired by 
Congress party leader Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan 
Singh. 
 
An Ace Reliever 
--------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) On December 27, the GoI asked current Chhattisgarh 
Governor ELS Narasimhan to accept the additional charge of 
Governor for Andhra Pradesh.  A fluent Telugu speaker, 
Narasimhan reportedly attended a meeting with GoI Home Minister 
¶P. Chidambaram to discuss the issue of Telangana statehood a few 
days prior to the current controversy.  As a former Intelligence 
Bureau (IB) Chief, analysts expect him to provide the Congress 
leadership with more accurate information and better insight 
into the current political turmoil in the state than the 
outgoing Tiwari.  [COMMENT: In meetings with Congenoffs over the 
past two years, Governor Tiwari appeared at times to have a 
shaky grip on current affairs in the state. END COMMENT].  The 
Chief Justice of the AP High Court administered the oath of 
office on December 28.  Governor Narasimhan emerged from the 
1968 batch of the AP cadre of the Indian Police Service (IPS). 
 
 
A Matter Of Perspective 
----------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Rampant media speculation about the timing of the 
revelations ascribes either pro- or anti-statehood motives to 
ABN Andhra Jyothi, which was inaugurated on October 15, 2009. 
Some analysts cite this media expose as an attempt to delay the 
creation of a new state, pointing to the friendship between the 
channel's owner, Vemuri Radhakrishna, and N. Chandrababu Naidu, 
leader of the opposition Telugu Desam Party (TDP).  Naidu, a 
former Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, has seemed reluctant to 
reaffirm his party's commitment to separate statehood.  Other 
analysts point the presence of Andhra Jyothi Editor, K. 
Srinivas, at a pro-statehood event sponsored by the U.S.-based 
Telangana Development Forum and postulate that Narisimhan's 
ascension to governor cements the case for statehood.  A 
journalist from a rival news organization claiming close ties to 
the reporters of ABN Andhra Jyothi dismissed the pro-and 
anti-statehood theories - the true motive of the expose was to 
 
HYDERABAD 00000138  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
capture as much market share as possible for the new station by 
putting out a sensational story.  He added that this story has 
been in development for six months and the timing is just 
opportune. 
 
Presidential Rule Imminent? 
 
¶5. (SBU) On December 13, Union Law Minister and Andhra Pradesh 
All India Congress Committee chair M. Veerappa Moily ruled out 
the possibility that AP would be placed under President's Rule 
in the wake of statewide civil unrest and adjournment of the 
State Assembly following the resignations of over 40 percent of 
the Members of the Legislative Assembly (ref C).  However, some 
pundits note that the timing of Governor Tiwari's resignation 
coincides with the statement by Pranab Mukherjee, GoI Finance 
Minister, that there will be "good news" on the question of 
statehood for Telangana in the near future as well as the call 
for more "bandhs" (ref D) by both the political party and the 
student group Joint Action Committees.  No matter what the "good 
news" turns out to be, it is likely to be poorly received by the 
one or the other side.  The Congress party would like to prolong 
the decision on statehood as long as possible and hedge their 
bets to prepare for any eventuality.  Lalitha Iyer of "The Week 
" magazine told Congenoff, that "Tiwari couldn't handle the 
situation in the state, which will only get worse.  Presidential 
Rule is the only way that the Congress leadership gets out of 
this unscathed and Tiwari was incapable of running the state." 
 
Calm in the Eye of the Storm 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: AP is in the midst of a serious political 
crisis: the legislature has adjourned until early February, the 
Chief Minister has seen his administration paralyzed by cabinet 
infighting, the Governor has been forced to resign under a cloud 
of ignominy, and a fiscal shortfall grows by the day.  The state 
government is nearly at a standstill.  Yet day-to-day life in 
the state is mostly undeterred by the regional transportation 
stoppages, laws banning large public assemblies and other 
inconveniences created by repeated strikes.  Students are most 
affected due to cancelled classes and postponed exams, since the 
street protests are centered on Osmania and other universities, 
where students are concerned about their access to the economic 
hub of Hyderabad.  If the current cycle of protest and backroom 
negotiation doesn't intensify, then the national leadership of 
the Congress party may outlast both sides of this issue and 
resolve the crisis peacefully.  But if the situation escalates 
and there are outbreaks of civil unrest, the appointment of the 
effective and efficient ELS Narasimhan might prove to be an 
asset for the state.  END COMMENT. 
LEONI