VZCZCXYZ0004
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHHE #0488 3571317
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 231317Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY HELSINKI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5335

UNCLAS HELSINKI 000488 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: FI PGOV
SUBJECT: PM STEPPING DOWN AS PARTY LEADER NEXT JUNE 
 
¶1. (SBU) In a surprise announcement made via Centre Party 
parliamentary leader Timo Kalli and his own blog on December 
23, Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen indicated that he would not 
stand for reelection as leader of the Centre Party at its 
June 2010 party conference.  Citing health reasons (surgery 
required on his legs next fall), he felt that he would not 
have sufficient time to recover from an operation, serve as 
prime minister, and lead his party into April 2011 elections 
all at the same time.  He went on say that the next party 
leader would "have a leading rol in PM selection", opening 
the possibility that he might also relinquish leadership of 
the government in June 2010. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Vanhanen's health problem was not widely known prior 
to this announcement.  There may be speculation that the real 
reason for Vanhanen's departure is political.  He was chosen 
as Finland's least trustworthy politician by a wide margin in 
a Taloustutkimus poll earlier this month (receiving 21% 
"support" compared to the second place SPD Leader Urpilainen 
who received 4%).  He appeared to retain broad support within 
his party in the aftermath of the long-running campaign 
funding scandal (in which most parties have been implicated, 
though Centre more than any other) and corruption allegations 
against the PM personally.  The latter aired on a YLE TV 
investigative program in September 2009, but collapsed after 
being forcefully rebutted by the PM, resulting in most of the 
party rallying around their leader after some disquiet in the 
ranks.  Chatter in the media about replacing Vanhanen at next 
summer's Centre Party conference had died down to nothing 
over the last two months.  Support for the three biggest 
parties (NCP, SDP, and Centre) has remained steady from 
August through November.  The NCP remains most popular with 
23.1 percent, followed by the SDP at 20.3 percent and Centre 
at 20.1 percent with a 1.4 percent margin of error.  Centre's 
public support actually went up two points between April and 
October 2009 despite damaging revelations about its campaign 
funding appearing in the media in the intervening months. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Five Centre Party figures have been mooted in the 
media as possible successors to Vanhanen as party leader and 
possibly PM.  Environment Minister Paula Lehtomaki, Minister 
of Public Administration Mari Kiviniemi, Minister of 
Transportation Anu Vehvilainen, party vice chair Antti 
Rantakangas, and MP Tuomo Puumala.  Posturing among these 
figures and their supporters may begin early in 2010, though 
none have put themselves forward as candidates yet. 
Lethtomaki has stated that she will make her decision on 
whether to stand for party leader in the next few weeks, 
while also commenting that the party chair must be 
immediately ready to act as prime minister. 
 
¶4. (SBU) NCP leader and Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen 
indicated that Vanhanen had recently told him of his decision 
while noting that any change of prime minister would require 
a formal process following selection of a candidate by the 
Centre Party.  FM Alexander Stubb (NCP) expressed surprise at 
the decision and reinforced that the government would 
continue to operate effectively.  Opposition SDP leader Jutta 
Urpilainen was also surprised and expressed the opinion that 
the PM should step down after the June 2010 Centre Party 
conference so that the PM would be a party leader better 
positioned to deal with current challenges such as 
unemployment. 
 
¶5. (SBU) As the leading party in the government coalition, 
Centre has the prerogative to put forward a candidate for 
prime minister.  If Centre puts forward a new prime minister 
in June 2010, the other governing parties will then be 
consulted and could theoretically reopen policy discussions 
undertaken as part of negotiations to form the governing 
coalition.  NOTE: We have not heard of any desire to do this. 
 By June 2010, the governing coalition will have already 
presented its last legislative program and budget to 
parliament, so there would seem little point in debating 
policies further within the coalition at that point.  END 
NOTE.  After concurrence among the governing coalition 
parties, the prime minister's candidacy must be approved by a 
majority in parliament.  S/he will then be formally appointed 
by the President. 
ORECK