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DE RUEHDF #0051/01 3562108
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 222108Z DEC 09
FM AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0253
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHDF/AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF 0271

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSSELDORF 000051 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON GM
SUBJECT: NRW'S SPD LEADER SEES DAYLIGHT AT END OF LANDTAG OPPOSITION 
TUNNEL 
 
DUSSELDORF 00000051  001.3 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.   (SBU)  Summary:  North Rhine-Westphalia's (NRW) opposition 
leader and SPD national vice chair Hannelore Kraft sees the May 
2010 NRW Landtag election as wide open; the current black/yellow 
government does not have a lock on the state.  She believes she 
was named national vice chair for a reason, knows it will be a 
bruiser of a campaign, with many appearances by national 
figures, and is well prepared.  Her party's election platform 
will focus on education, the economy, combating rising debt and 
unemployment.  But Kraft, an economist by training, is clear 
that money has to be invested - in early childhood education, 
for example - to reap savings later on.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
Batten Down the Hatches for the Landtag Election 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Kraft previewed the SPD strategy for the upcoming May 
2010 NRW Landtag election for the CG.  She sees (as she must) 
the NRW SPD as having some advantages over the national party. 
It obtained the best results in the 2009 local elections, 
regaining a number of important mayoral posts, thanks to 
door-to-door campaigning.  It does not bear the burden of 
co-governance with the CDU, which blurred party lines and 
positions; rather, it has the advantage of sitting in 
opposition.  In addition, she believes many did not vote for the 
national SPD because it was a party without a potential 
coalition partner.  Local polling shows the current black/yellow 
government does not have a lock, per Kraft.  She sees Forsa 
polls as unreliable, since they slice out NRW from their 
national results, rather than doing focused work.  She relies 
instead on WDR polling, which she views as scientifically and 
statistically sound.  Recent WDR polls show black/yellow no 
longer has a clear majority. 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Kraft believes that smaller parties will continue to 
gain at the expense of the larger ones, a trend that concerns 
her, since large parties have long been an anchor in German 
politics.  It also tells her the SPD must work harder to win - 
or win back - its core constituencies.  Responding to the CG's 
query, she affirmed she still sees the SPD as a "Volkspartei" - 
one that communicates the interests of the people writ large - 
despite recent losses.  The SPD is working, for example, to win 
back disaffected trade unionists from the NRW "Linke" (the 
Left), which, unlike their more pragmatic brethren in the 
Saarland, Kraft sees as being run by hardliners who propose 
"crazy" things like nationalizing industry.  Though she concedes 
the Left will probably make it into the Landtag, she doubts they 
will quickly learn the craft of compromise or governance.  And 
despite her stated reluctance to shut doors publicly on 
potential coalition partners, she has done so already - 
vociferously - regarding the Left. 
 
 
 
Education Under One Roof 
 
------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) The SPD will campaign on as many as five themes, 
including education reform, state and local finances, and 
economic innovation, all of which she sees as the Achilles' 
heels of the current NRW administration.  Of those, education is 
near and dear to Kraft's heart.  In order to further upward 
mobility, which she believes the current split school system 
stymies, she wants to see the fusion of the three current school 
types (Real-, Hauptschule, Gymnasium) into one school called a 
Gemeinschaftsschule (community school), similar to a middle 
school, for the fifth and sixth grades.  Beyond the level of the 
Gemeinschaftsschule, the three current school types should be 
housed under one roof, to allow for further fluidity and real 
potential for students to advance to a Gymnasium, which offers 
the best educational qualifications.  Kraft also sees a need to 
return to strict districting (to prevent the current 
parent-chosen clustering of students in "known" good schools), 
pay teachers more, and bring in more male teachers.  She wants 
to eliminate all student payments associated with school 
attendance; it should all be financed by the state to provide 
equal opportunity to all, no matter the income or educational 
level of the parents. 
 
 
 
Invest to Reap Rewards 
 
---------------------- 
 
 
DUSSELDORF 00000051  002.3 OF 002 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Kraft, an economist by training, is adamant about the 
need to invest up-front in education.  "Lost children" end up 
costing all levels of government considerably more than the 
initial investment in education.  A single child who falls 
through the social net and ends up in juvenile detention costs 
upwards of $100,000 per year.  Kraft seeks expanded investments 
in preschools in order to ensure that language abilities of all 
4-6 year olds (especially those of low-income and immigrant 
backgrounds) are up to par once they begin school (a program 
brought in by the current black/yellow government, which Kraft 
would like to expand).  At the same time, she believes in 
investing in the parents, so they can learn how best to support 
their children's studies. 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) While investment is key, Kraft believes the state of 
the cities - many of which are essentially bankrupt - and their 
decreasing ability to provide services, will be additional 
campaign themes.  The economic crisis will continue to bite hard 
as those who have kept employees on as "short-time" workers may 
start letting people go.  Unemployment - especially in already 
hard-hit areas of the Ruhr - will be another topic, as well as 
the need to support small- and medium-sized firms. 
 
 
 
Comment: It's Campaign Time and More 
 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The Landtag campaign - which all say will officially 
begin after Easter - is well underway.  Not only Kraft, but CDU 
contacts, tell us they already have more offers of appearances 
by national figures than they will be able to use.  When Kraft 
says the SPD can upset the current black/yellow coalition in 
NRW, it's clearly more than a politician talking - she means it. 
 It would be a coup for her to break the SPD's losing streak. 
All know the black/yellow majority in the Bundesrat is at stake, 
but Kraft - and current M-P Ruettgers - also see themselves as 
running a referendum on the new federal coalition. 
WEINER