VZCZCXRO4803
RR RUEHLN RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #1458/01 3580555
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 240555Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1086
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0356
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 2296

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001458 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV TI
SUBJECT: TAJIK ELECTIONS:  IRPT CONGRESS; CRONY ELECTION COMMITTEE 
 
REF: DUSHANBE 1335; DUSHANBE 1443; DUSHANBE 1321 
 
DUSHANBE 00001458  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  President Rahmon set February 28 as the date 
for national Parliamentary polls and appointed mostly 
pro-government loyalists to the national commission overseeing 
the election.  The Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan 
(IRPT) held its congress and nominated a party list of 
parliamentary candidates considered palatable to the President. 
The IRPT Congress touched on religious issues involving the 
hijab and the banned Jamaat i Tabligh missionary group, but the 
party's electoral platform avoids direct criticism of issues 
close to the President.  The IRPT likely hopes to be rewarded 
for its good behavior with a few seats.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
2010 ELECTION COMMISSION: A RE-RUN FROM 2005 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) On December 14, President Rahmon announced a February 
28 poll date for national elections to district councils, 
regional parliaments and the Majlisi Namoyandagon (lower house 
of the national parliament).  Twenty two seats in the Majlisi 
Namoyandagon are elected via national party lists, while 43 MPs 
are elected from electoral districts as individual mandates 
(Reftel A).   The next day, Rahmon submitted to Parliament his 
appointments to the 15-member Central Commission for Elections 
and Referenda (CCER), which will oversee the February 28 polls. 
The new CCER is stacked with pro-Rahmon cronies and looks much 
like the previous CCER that oversaw the flawed 2005 
Parliamentary elections.  The Chairman, Deputy Chairman, Head of 
Administration, and secretary are among seven members back for 
repeat duty. 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Though the government announced that the CCER members 
include seven of the country's eight political parties, 
appointees from the Democratic Party and Socialist Party are 
members of government-controlled splinter groups.  The President 
re-appointed friendly members of the Communist Party and IRPT. 
Members of the pro-government Agrarian Party, Party of Economic 
Reforms, and three members representing President Rahmon's 
People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan (PDPT) round out the 
list.  An IRPT member appointed to the 2005 CCER who criticized 
the conduct of those elections was not re-appointed to the 2010 
commission.  The Social Democratic Party, the party most openly 
critical of the government, is the only party not represented on 
the CCER. 
 
 
 
ISLAMIC RENNAISANCE PARTY HOLD CONGRESS, STAYS ON GOOD BEHAVIOR 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) On December 20, 586 Islamic Renaissance Party of 
Tajikistan members clad in matching blue scarves (the new party 
color) met in a Dushanbe theatre to nominate a party list to 
contest the Parliamentary polls.  The IRPT has two seats in the 
outgoing Majlisi Namoyandagon and party members hope to increase 
their total to five.  Party Chairman Muhiddin Kabiri, elected to 
Parliament in 2005, again will be at the top of the party list 
and said his party would run an aggressive campaign focusing on 
anti-corruption, migration, and government reform in its 
election campaign.  Kabiri admitted in his key-note address that 
the IRPT had largely refrained from open criticism of the 
government for ten years, adding that "even foreigners" had 
criticized the party's failure to organize legislative 
opposition.  Nevertheless, in his speech he did not challenge 
major government policies, did not raise the April Law on 
Religion, nor directly criticize the Presidential 
Administration.  He said school expulsion and firing of women 
who wear the hijab violates the Constitution and pledged that 
the IRPT would support women involved in such cases. 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) The IRPT notably omitted from its party list a 
high-ranking IRPT leader known for his open criticism of the 
government, Muhammadali Hayit, who was the third member of the 
2005 party list.  Some party members suggest that the IRPT 
received only two seats in the 2005 polls to prevent Hayit from 
taking a seat in Parliament.  Party members said that Chairman 
Kabiri convinced Hayit to abstain from running on the 2010 party 
list; Hayit plans to run separately in an individual mandate 
district.  In place of Hayit, the party nominated a member who 
does not have a record of vocally opposing government policies. 
 
 
 
 
DUSHANBE 00001458  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Both the Iranian and Afghan Ambassadors addressed the 
Party congress and emphasized common linguistic and cultural 
ties with Tajikistan.  The Iranian Ambassador said Iran was 
committed to helping Tajikistan resolve its problems.  Kabiri 
responded by noting Iranian economic support for Tajikistan. 
While many foreign investors did not enter Tajikistan because of 
widespread corruption and international financial institutions 
had their own interests, "our Iranian brothers assist us 
honestly even when the projects are not profitable."  He cited 
Iran's construction of the Sangtuda 2 hydroelectric plant, and 
added that Iran had bid to build Sangtuda 1, a project the Tajik 
government awarded to Russia. 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Political/religious heavyweight Hoji Akbar Turajonzoda 
(Reftel C), though not a member of the IRPT, called on the party 
to include the plight of the banned Jamaat i Tabligh Islamic 
fundamentalist missionary group in its campaign platform.  Over 
50 Tabligh members currently await trial in Dushanbe. 
Turajonzoda has regularly criticized the IRPT for its failure to 
raise this case and other religious freedom issues.  Kabiri 
agreed that the issue should be included in the IRPT's platform 
and suggested that Turajonzoda should officially become an IRPT 
member.  "Once someone eats pilaf with us, he will always be 
with us."  Turajonzoda replied that "While I have never been and 
am not an IRPT member, me and all of my family will support you 
in the elections." 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) On the Party's pledge to buy shares in the Roghun 
hydroelectric dam project (Reftel B), a prominent businessman 
addressed the floor and declared that the party was willing to 
answer the government's call to invest in Roghun if the 
government establishes a transparent mechanism to manage the 
process.  For the first time ever, the Party's Congress received 
limited, but positive coverage on the national television 
channel. 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) COMMENT:  Rahmon's re-appointment of loyalists to the 
CCER suggests that the February 28 elections are likely to be 
another centrally directed pro forma exercise with most races 
decided well in advance.  To contest the few races up for grabs, 
the Islamic Renaissance Party is campaigning to two audiences: 
the Tajik electorate and President Rahmon.  Kabiri pledges to 
run an active campaign and Hoji Akbar Turajonzoda's presence at 
the congress suggests that the IRPT has not lost all of its 
support from the religious opposition.  Kabiri is careful to 
show deference to the government by submitting an inoffensive 
party list and promoting Roghun shares.  Positive state media 
coverage of the IRPT congress suggests that this strategy may be 
successful in getting the government to reward the IRPT with 
additional seats.  END COMMENT 
GROSS