VZCZCXRO3852
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DE RUEHDJ #1419/01 3570952
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 230952Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1166
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DJIBOUTI 001419 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/23 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PINR DJ
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION FIGURES PREPARE FOR 2011 ELECTIONS 
 
REF: 09 DJIBOUTI 1405; 09 DJIBOUTI 148; 09 DJIBOUTI 1277 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: J. Swan, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY.  Two minor political figures have now declared 
their intention to run as candidates in 2011 presidential 
elections: Aden Robleh Awaleh of the National Democratic Party 
(PND), nominally an ally of the ruling party (ref A), and Mohamed 
Daoud Chehem of the unaffiliated Djiboutian Party for Development 
(PDD).  The Republican Alliance for Democracy (ARD) a member an 
opposition grouping that boycotted elections in 2005 and 2006, 
plans to hold a party congress in early 2010 to finalize its 
positions, but continues to endorse a long-reiterated list of 
pre-conditions for participation in 2011.  While it is still early 
to handicap electoral prospects for 2011, none of the minor 
opposition figures who have emerged to date appear to have the 
party program, network, resources, or uncontested ethnic base to 
mount a convincing challenge to President Guelleh if-as seems 
imminent-the constitution is amended to permit him to run for a 
third term.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
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PND: NEXT MOVES AFTER DECLARING CANDIDACY 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (C) Ambassador met December 23 with PND President Aden Robleh 
Awaleh.  Awaleh told Ambassador that the PND's recent party 
congress (ref A), which he described as "very well attended," had 
given him the party's blessing to oppose a third mandate for 
Guelleh and run as a candidate himself, but that it was now his own 
responsibility to decide how to implement these directives.  Awaleh 
said that his party stood by the call for a "national conference" 
on the way forward to 2011, but agreed with Ambassador's suggestion 
that framing such a discussion as a "national consultation" might 
attract more support by avoiding echoes of the "sovereign national 
conference" phenomenon of the early 1990s. 
 
 
 
¶3. (C) Awaleh characterized the ruling UMP ("Union for a 
Presidential Majority") coalition as a loose "political 
partnership" rather than a true "union of parties,"  and said that 
he had not met privately with President Guelleh or the President's 
RPP ("People's Rally for Progress") party for over nine months.  He 
had, however, been discussing with the (former opposition) 
ruling-coalition party FRUD ("Front for the Restoration of 
Democracy and Unity"), and suggested that the PND and FRUD saw 
eye-to-eye on several points, including the addition of a senate 
via constitutional amendment.  (COMMENT.  Awaleh described the 
potential role of such as senate as "guarding the roots" of 
Djibouti, and commented that it could be constituted from the Afar 
and Issa ethnic communities.  Other groups-such as Djiboutians of 
Yemeni origin, or the Somali Issacks, were noticeably left out. 
Awaleh openly acknowledged that the PND is an majority ethnic-Issa 
party, and criticized President Guelleh for selling Djiboutian land 
(and interests) to foreigners from Yemen and the Gulf states.  END 
COMMENT.) 
 
 
 
¶4. (C) Awaleh agreed with Ambassador that it was important for 2011 
elections to be free, fair, and transparent, and said that if the 
conditions were not right for a free election, he would withdraw 
his candidacy.  "There have never been free elections in Djibouti," 
he commented.  Awaleh said that he advocated for the reinforcement 
of an independent national election commission, and strengthened 
mechanisms to prevent people from voting at multiple polling 
stations.  Awaleh, who described himself as the "architect" of 
Djiboutian independence, told Ambassador that his family felt 
threatened in their business pursuits after the PND congress, and 
that he himself would not be surprised to "end up in prison." 
 
 
 
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PDD: FIRST TO DECLARE 2011 CANDIDACY, 
 
BUT STILL WORKING ON A PLATFORM 
 
DJIBOUTI 00001419  002 OF 003 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (C) Ambassador and PolOff met December 21 with PDD President 
Mohamed Daoud Chehem.  In March 2009, Chehem became the first 
candidate to declare he would stand for 2011 presidential 
elections.  Chehem's PDD had contested 2003 legislative elections 
as part of the opposition grouping UAD ("Union for a Democratic 
Alternation"), but left the UAD when it decided to boycott 2005 
presidential elections.  Chehem declared his own candidacy for the 
2005 elections in September 2004, but withdrew from the race in 
March 2005, he told Ambassador, after realizing that he had not 
left himself enough time to organize a campaign.  To avoid 
repeating this mistake he had been careful to declare his 2011 
candidacy early.  In addition, Chehem told Ambassador, he had not 
wanted to "wait" to announce his own candidacy until President 
Guelleh publicly declares whether he will or will not seek a third 
mandate.  The PDD continued to oppose a constitutional amendment 
allowing President Guelleh to seek a third term in office.  "If we 
mobilize the population," he said, "President Guelleh will bow 
out." 
 
 
 
¶6. (C) Chehem said that the PDD was currently looking for a 
headquarters building, and was planning to hold a party congress in 
May.  When pressed by Ambassador, Chehem said that the PDD was 
currently developing a policy platform, which would be publicized 
after the May party congress.  He noted that as part of its policy, 
although not necessarily as part of its public platform, the PDD 
would invite the U.S. to establish a military base in northern 
Djibouti.  Regarding campaign strategies, Chehem said that as most 
of the PDD's supporters did not read or write, the party would 
mainly rely on extensive campaign visits throughout the country, 
but would also establish a newspaper.  Chehem, an ethnic Afar, 
stressed that PDD party leadership included representatives from 
all of Djibouti's ethnic communities, including a Gadaboursi 
Vice-President.  On election procedures, Chehem said that the PDD 
would demand an independent electoral commission, and would insist 
on the rights of party observers to obtain a copy of the summary 
voting results of each polling station. 
 
 
 
¶7. (C) Chehem accused President Guelleh of instigating and allowing 
widespread corruption and nepotism throughout the GODJ, calling him 
"more of a businessman than a statesman."  Guelleh, Chehem said, 
was also increasingly facing problems even within his own Issa 
community.  There were rumors, he said, that exiled Issa/Odagob 
businessman Abdourahman Mohamed Mahamoud Boreh (ref B) was funding 
ethnic Issa/Odagob PND President Aden Robleh Awaleh, who is part of 
the ruling UMP ("Union for a Presidential Majority") coalition but 
recently declared his own independent candidacy for 2011 (ref A). 
In addition, Chehem claimed, Odagob elements of the army were 
becoming discontented.  Furthermore, Chehem told Ambassador, 
Guelleh's relationship with the Issa community continued to be 
strained by public perceptions of the considerable power wielded by 
the First Lady, an ethnic Issack. 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) BIO NOTE ON MOHAMED DAOUD CHEHEM.  Chehem is an ethnic 
Afar, and originally from the northern town of Tadjourah.  He is 
married to an ethnic Issa/Fourlaba.  He studied mathematics in 
France (1976-1977), and was named Chief of Staff to the Prime 
Minister (1978) shortly after Djiboutian independence.  He worked 
in various positions at the Ministry of Finance, including as 
Director of Finance (1987-1991).  In January 1991, he was arrested, 
tried for involvement in a plot against state security, and 
sentenced to five years in prison.  He was pardoned in 1993. 
Chehem founded the PDD in 2002.  END BIO NOTE. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
ARD: PARTY CONGRESS SET FOR EARLY 2010 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
 
 
¶9. (C) PolOff met December 21 with ARD Secretary-General Adan 
Mohamed Abdou.  (NOTE.  The ARD is a member of the three-party UAD 
opposition grouping.  Separately, Abdou is also a prominent 
 
DJIBOUTI 00001419  003 OF 003 
 
 
Djiboutian union leader.  END NOTE.)  Abdou said that the ARD would 
hold its party congress in January or February, and would set the 
date in early January.  At the last ARD congress, held in 2006, 
one-third of ARD members had voted to "pick up arms again" against 
the government.  While this question was bound to come up again 
during the 2010 congress, Abdou said that he believed the "majority 
will still be against the use of force."  (NOTE.  The GODJ and the 
ethnic-Afar FRUD ("Front for the Restoration of Democracy and 
Unity") clashed during the civil conflicts of the 1990s, which 
ended with the signature of a peace accord in 2001.  END NOTE.) 
Abdou said that there were already small groups of rebels active in 
northern Djibouti; however, the problem was not widespread.  In 
addition, there was an "informal understanding" of 
non-confrontation between such groups and Djiboutian armed forces, 
who were "no longer interested in war." 
 
 
 
¶10. (C) Abdou said that the ARD had annex offices in Tadjourah, 
Obock, and Dikhil, as well as three annex offices in Djibouti City. 
He said that the ARD continued to post editions of its newsletter 
"La Realite" online, after ceasing paper publication in 2005.  The 
party was also actively working to mobilize the Djiboutian 
diaspora, and had named representatives in France, Switzerland, and 
London.  In Djibouti, the ARD had numerous members who "secretly" 
supported the party and paid dues, but were loath to publicly and 
formally declare their membership, for fear of repercussions in 
business or employment.  In recent years, Abdou claimed, many 
former FRUD supporters had shifted their allegiance to the ARD.  On 
outreach to the international community, Abdou said that ordinary 
Djiboutians perceived that the international community was more 
concerned with following their own interests in Djibouti than in 
pushing for human rights or democratic reform. 
 
 
 
¶11. (C) Abdou said that the UAD opposition grouping remained 
steadfast in its opposition to a constitutional amendment allowing 
President Guelleh to run for a third term in office, and 
"encouraged" the candidacy of PND President Aden Robleh Awaleh, as 
well as Awaleh's proposal that there be a national multi-party 
conference on 2011 elections.   Above and beyond Awaleh's proposal 
for an all-inclusive national conference, Abdou said, the UAD had 
called for the formation of a transitional government of national 
unity.  The UAD also continued to demand the fulfillment of a 
certain number of pre-conditions for participation in 2011 
elections (ref C).  Abdou especially bemoaned the difficulty of 
financing an electoral campaign, and accused the ruling party of 
using state resources to run its own campaign. 
 
 
 
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COMMENT 
 
-------------- 
 
 
 
¶12. (C) Given recent indications (septel) that the FRUD-perhaps at 
one time the most influential opposition party, and now the 
President's most important coalition ally-will support a 
constitutional amendment, the opposition parties may have even less 
hope of gaining traction in their quest to block a third Guelleh 
term.  The FRUD has expressed interest in inviting opposition 
parties to participate in national discussions on constitutional 
reform, and while the UAD and PDD may be unlikely to change their 
positions on a constitutional amendment, they may accept a seat-if 
offered one-at the negotiation table.  In discussions with the 
GODJ, the ruling coalition, and opposition parties, post will 
continue to stress that allowing open and diverse participation in 
the national political debate can help contribute to the 
transparency and legitimacy of 2011 elections.  END COMMENT. 
SWAN