VZCZCXRO2532
RR RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDJ #1389/01 3441325
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 101325Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1114
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
SOMALIA COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA FWD
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DJIBOUTI 001389 
 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/10 
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV PTER KE SO ET DJ
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: ETHIOPIAN FOREIGN MINISTER STRONGLY BACKS TFG AT 
IGAD MINISTERIAL 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: James C. Swan, Ambassador, U.S. Department of State, 
Executive Office; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum strongly backed 
the Somalia Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in both remarks 
made at the December 7 - 8 Djibouti IGAD ministerial, and in a 
December 7 meeting with AF Deputy Assistant Secretary Wycoff. 
Seyoum urged strong USG leadership on Somalia.  He criticized 
France for temporizing on sanctions against Eritrea.  The Ethiopian 
Foreign Minister enthusiastically welcomed the TFG's 2010 budget, 
especially its strategy for funding about twenty percent of it from 
its comparatively meager revenues.  The GoE, Seyoum said, had 
delivered a "tough" message to Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama'a, telling it 
that there would be no Ethiopian support if it did not cooperate 
with the TFG.  German-sponsored TFG police training was underway. 
Seyoum said that the GoE would train its tranche of 800 TFG police 
in counterinsurgency tactics.  End summary. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
-- 
 
Seyoum Scores French Wobbling on Eritrea Sanctions 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
-- 
 
¶2. (C) Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin opened a long, very 
positive meeting on the margins of the December 7 - 8 Djibouti IGAD 
ministerial with AF Deputy Assistant Secretary Karl Wycoff by 
stressing the need for USG leadership on Somalia.  He criticized 
what he characterized as France's willingness to "appease 
al-Shabaab" in an effort to free its remaining hostage in Mogadishu 
by refusing to support sanctions against Eritrea.  Eritrean 
President Isaias, Seyoum said, was a master at exploiting such 
opportunities to stay afloat, and it had to stop.  Wycoff noted 
that the U.S. would continue to push for the strongest possible 
UNSC resolution. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
----------------------------------- 
 
FM Says IGAD Will Form Ministerial Committee to Solicit Funds for 
the TFG 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3. (C) While acknowledging that "no country can throw its money 
into a black hole," Seyoum urged strong international community 
financial support for the TFG.  The government is weak, he said. It 
needed not just benchmarks, but help in reaching those benchmarks. 
Wycoff noted that the U.S. was working with its partners to try to 
strengthen the capacity of the TFG and stressed that transparency 
and accountability were key to garnering donor support and 
beginning the process of developing capacity to govern. 
 
 
 
¶4. (C) The FORMIN said that IGAD planned to do what it could to 
help the TFG.  Seyoum and his colleagues in IGAD had discussed the 
creation of a "small ministerial committee" that would "sensitize 
selected capitals" to the TFG's needs.  Seyoum had been heartened 
by the TFG's 2010 budget, which had been presented by TFG Deputy 
Prime Minister Sharif Hassan at the December 7 session of the IGAD 
ministerial.  He maintained that the TFG's intent to finance twenty 
percent of its annual budget from its meager port and airport 
revenues was a gesture of good faith, and he thought that perhaps 
supplemental funds could be provided by members of the League of 
Arab States. 
 
 
 
¶5. (C) DAS Wycoff reviewed examples of USG leadership in working 
towards Somalia's stability, including support for the Djibouti 
Peace Process (DPP), AMISOM and the TFG.  He noted that USG support 
for the TFG in the security area, included budget support, 
ammunition, and support to training of TFG combatants. He also 
noted that it was equally important to focus on the DPP and the 
effort to broaden the base of support for the TFG and find a 
 
DJIBOUTI 00001389  002 OF 003 
 
 
political approach that would stabilize Somalia. He noted for 
instance that the USG was pushing the TFG to do better on the 
public diplomacy and outreach front to the Somali people and had 
provided material support to this effort.  He reiterated that the 
USG had been a strong and consistent proponent of transparency and 
accountability for the TFG, noting that this was important in its 
own right but also key to promoting donor support to the TFG. 
Implementation of the PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC) financial 
mechanism was crucial in this regard. Wycoff noted USG engagement 
in this area and our efforts to promote use of the PWC mechanism, 
Wycoff also reiterated his belief that it was important that 
Ethiopia keep as low a profile as possible in Somalia. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
----------- 
 
Ethiopia Alleges It Pushes ASWJ Cooperation with the TFG 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
----------- 
 
 
 
¶6. (C)  Wycoff reiterated USG support for the DPP and the need for 
the international community to support and promote Somali-led 
efforts to accomplish political reconciliation and focus on the 
political aspects of stabilizing Somalia in parallel with the 
security track of building TFG military capability. The Ethiopian 
Foreign Minister reviewed for DAS Wycoff the latest GoE dealings 
with Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama'a (ASWJ).  ASWJ, he said had pushed 
recently for an "arms-length" relationship with the TFG and had 
openly hoped that the TFG "would go away."  The Ethiopian 
government, Seyoum said, then told ASWJ that it would not 
cooperate, if ASWJ did not cooperate with the TFG.  ASWJ would 
receive GoE support only if it cooperated fully with the TFG and, 
eventually, joined the government.  Seyoum believed that those in 
the ASWJ diaspora were "attempting to manipulate ASWJ on the 
ground."  Seyoum believed that a decision to back the TFG would be 
taken by ASWJ at the one-year anniversary commemoration of its 
decision to fight al-Shabaab.  If there is an agreement to back the 
TFG, the GoE, Seyoum said, would proceed with plans to train 400 
ASWJ fighters in Ethiopia. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
German-Sponsored Police Training Underway 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (C) According to Seyoum, the German-sponsored training of 800 
TFG police was underway in northeastern Ethiopia.  He believed that 
recruits would be sent to the same site from Somalia's Hiraan 
Region, as well.  The training will be low-key, Seyoum said, and 
would last approximately six months, although the recruits could 
return earlier, if necessary.  In addition to standard police 
training, the recruits would receive counterinsurgency training in 
order to prepare them for the environment they would encounter in 
Somalia.  These and similar training efforts were the most that the 
GoE was willing to do at this point.  There would be no further 
armed incursions, and Seyoum could not imagine a set of 
circumstances that would "bring us in" to Somalia. Wycoff urged 
that this training be done to UN standards so that UNDP could 
provide salary and other support after the return to Mogadishu, 
which was crucial to continued functioning this force in Somalia's 
difficult environment.  Seyoum confirmed that Ethipian intended to 
keep a low provide in Somalia. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
---- 
 
Ethiopia Skeptical about Kenya's Lower Juba Initiative 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
---- 
 
DJIBOUTI 00001389  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶8. (C) Wycoff raised the question of Kenya's plans for a "Jubaland 
initiative" and reiterated U.S. opposition to this effort.  Seyoum 
agreed that the Kenyan government's plans to prepare a force for an 
invasion of Lower Juba would "complicate" matters there.  The GOK, 
he said, continued to believe it could create a buffer zone. 
Trained troops, Seyoum noted, were a double-edged sword; they could 
always be turned against Kenya.  Seyoum worried that the Kenyan 
effort might backfire.  In mid-November, he had cautioned Kenyan 
President Kibaki to be careful.  DAS Wycoff told Seyoum that 
Assistant Secretary Carson had told the highest levels of the GOK 
that the USG opposed the Kenyan initiative and that we would 
continue to press this position. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------- 
 
Djibouti - Eritrea Tension On Ethiopia's Radar 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
 
 
¶9. (C) DAS Wycoff noted that the U.S worked to promote stability in 
the HOA and opposed cross border activities that would lead to 
instability. Seyoum told DAS Wycoff that Ethiopia was watching the 
Djibouti - Eritrea border dispute closely.  Djibouti was a 
"lifeline" for Ethiopia, he said, and there are limits to what 
Isaias will be allowed to do.  Seyoum worried that Eritrea was 
preparing Afar pastoralists for use in an effort to de-stabilize 
Djibouti.  While Ethiopia did not want war, he said, it could not 
afford to see its supply route from the port of Djibouti disrupted. 
Wycoff repeated U.S. opposition to nefarious cross-border 
activities. 
 
 
 
-------------- 
 
Comment 
 
-------------- 
 
 
 
¶10. (C) Seyoum was as bullish about the TFG, but less critical of 
the international community than Kenyan Foreign Minister Wetangula 
had been in his meeting with DAS Wycoff (septel).  The GoE's 
initial skepticism about this TFG seems to have evaporated 
completely.  Earlier efforts to search for a potential alternative 
among the ASWJ factions seem to have yielded little for Ethiopia 
and, with no obvious alternative on the horizon, the GoE seems to 
have decided that the TFG can be made to work if it, and the rest 
of the international community, get strongly behind it. 
 
 
 
¶12. (U) DAS Wycoff cleared this message. 
SWAN