VZCZCXRO6751
RR RUEHCHI RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHDT #0342/01 3622307
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 282307Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY DILI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4669
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0138
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1370
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON 1189
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHHJJPI/PACOM IDHS HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0982
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1158
RUEHDT/AMEMBASSY DILI 4225

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DILI 000342 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV MARR MASS PREL TT
SUBJECT: POLITICAL FUTURE FOR TOP TIMORESE GENERAL? 
 
DILI 00000342  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY: Major General Taur Matan Ruak, the current commander 
of the Timorese armed forces (F-FDTL), could stand as a 
candidate in the presidential elections in 2012.  While TMR is a 
member of the independence generation that has dominated 
Timorese politics since the country's formal independence in 
2002, he would be a "new" figure in the sense that he is not one 
of the three men - Xanana Gusmao, Jose Ramos-Horta, and Mari 
Alkitiri - that to date have monopolized the presidency and 
prime minister's office and are identified as part of the "1975 
generation" of political leaders.  TMR is most closely 
associated with Gusmao, his guerrilla army colleague during the 
Indonesian occupation, and if Gusmao decides to back him TMR 
would likely stand as the presidential candidate for Gusmao's 
CNRT party.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
Early Life: Labor Organizer 
 
 
 
¶2.  Taur Matan Ruak (TMR) was born in the town of Baguia, 
District of Baucau, on October 10, 1956.  He was the eldest son 
of eight children (five girls and three boys).  In 1960 TMR 
moved to Dili to live with an uncle and in 1963 he started his 
primary studies, finishing in five years later in 1968. 
 
 
 
¶3.  In 1971 TMR obtained employment at a pousada or hotel in 
Baucau.  Despite his tender age he organized an employee strike, 
demanding increased salaries, better food and conditions, and 
greater respect for employee dignity.  The Dili Court ruled 
against the striking employees, undermining TMR's confidence in 
the judicial institutions of the Portuguese administration.  In 
1973 TMR got another hotel job, this time at the Hotel Resende 
in Dili, and a year later organized another strike against 
unfair conditions.  The case was again submitted to the Dili 
Court but it ended once again without a satisfactory resolution. 
TMR's activism was part of a broader movement for labor rights 
in Timor-Leste; Ramos-Horta and Gusmao were also organizing 
strikes around this time. 
 
 
 
¶4.  The Portuguese colonial administration began a process of 
decolonization in May 1974 and Timorese political parties were 
encouraged to register.  After a brief civil war in August 1975, 
the left-wing political organization FRETILIN (Revolutionary 
Front for an Independent East Timor) emerged as the interim 
administration of the fledging nation.  TMR, still not yet 20 
years old, supported the new administration. 
 
 
 
Rise to FALINTIL Commander 
 
 
 
¶5.  When Indonesia invaded Timor-Leste in December 1975, TMR, 
who was still in Dili, took to the hills with FRETILIN's 
military wing, FALINTIL (Armed Forces for the National 
Liberation of East Timor), and its first commander, Nicolau 
Lobato.  During the first three years of the war, during which 
time an estimated 100,000 Timorese were killed, TMR participated 
in battles against the Indonesian military in Dili, Aileu, 
Maubisse, Ossu, Venilale, Uatulari and finally Laga, on the 
north-eastern coast.  He steadily rose through the FALINTIL 
ranks in a series of command positions centered on FALINTIL's 
strongholds in the East.  Lobato was killed in 1978, however, 
and by the end of that year FALINTIL's ability to mount 
sustained operations in direct confrontation to the Indonesians 
was greatly diminished.  FALINTIL increasingly turned to 
guerilla tactics, and TMR organized many of those efforts in the 
East.  He was briefly captured in March 1979 in Viqueue but 
escaped after 23 days. 
 
 
 
¶6.  TMR remained at large throughout the 1980's, coordinating 
guerilla commando actions across the country.  He became 
FALINTIL Chief of Staff in November 1992 after the capture of 
 
DILI 00000342  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
Xanana Gusmao and rose to the position of Operational Commander 
in March 1998. 
 
 
 
Popular Consultation and Transition to F-FDTL 
 
 
 
¶7.  On August 30, 1999, the Timorese people voted overwhelmingly 
for their independence from Indonesia in a UN-supervised 
referendum.  From his jail cell in Jakarta FALINTIL 
Commander-in-Chief Gusmao ordered all FALINTIL personnel 
confined to cantonments, for fear  that any armed engagement 
with the Indonesians would jeopardize the holding of the ballot. 
 Despite the intense violence and destruction that both preceded 
and followed the referendum, TMR successfully carried out 
Gusmao's difficult order and prevented FALINTIL guerillas from 
taking action even though the Timorese population begged for 
protection against rampaging pro-Indonesia forces. 
 
 
 
¶8.  On August 20, 2000, on the 25th anniversary of FALINTIL's 
founding, Xanana Gusmao resigned from FALINTIL and TMR was 
appointed the Commander-in-Chief, the last individual to hold 
that position.  FALINTIL subsequently became the official armed 
forces of East Timor on February 1, 2001.  The new force honored 
its historical roots by taking the name FALINTIL-Defense Force 
of Timor-Leste (F-FDTL).  TMR became F-FDTL's first and thus far 
only commander, with the rank of Brigadier General. 
 
 
 
Role in the 2006 Crisis 
 
 
 
¶9.  TMR was a central figure in the April-May 2006 crisis which 
erupted around the dismissal from the F-FDTL of nearly 600 
"petitioners," soldiers drawn mainly from the western part of 
the country that alleged discrimination in favor of soldiers 
from the East.  TMR was accused by some of not paying sufficient 
attention to his soldiers' concerns and allowing the situation 
to escalate as far as it did.  TMR's house was attacked at the 
end of May 2006, necessitating a negotiated rescue of his 
children trapped inside. 
 
 
 
¶10.  The UN Special Commission of Inquiry (COI) that 
investigated the 2006 crisis concluded that TMR ordered the 
F-FDTL to arm two hundred civilians shortly after his house was 
attacked.  TMR claimed the additional personnel were needed as 
"reservists" to bolster the F-FDTL's troop levels, which had 
been depleted during the crisis.  The COI found no basis in 
Timorese law for arming reservists in this way and recommend 
that TMR and others be prosecuted in Timorese courts for illegal 
weapons transfer.  Timor-Leste's Prosecutor General announced in 
December 2009 that she was dropping the weapons investigation 
and would not bring charges against TMR since there was no 
evidence of unlawfulness or culpability. 
 
 
 
Political Prospects 
 
 
 
¶11. TMR in recent months has made public statements mentioning 
the need for the old generation at F-FDTL to retire, including 
him.  He was promoted to Major General in November 2009 as his 
second-in-command rose to Brigadier General, but PM Gusmao 
denied that the moves were a sign that a change in command was 
imminent.  Nevertheless, TMR is mentioned as a possible 
presidential candidate in the elections scheduled for mid-2012, 
particularly if the independent incumbent Jose Ramos-Horta 
decides not to run again. 
 
 
 
¶12. The most likely fit for TMR is the National Congress for 
 
DILI 00000342  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT) party led by PM Gusmao, either as 
its candidate or with its tacit backing as an independent as 
Ramos-Horta did in 2007.  CNRT Secretary-General Dionisio Babo 
stressed that CNRT is a party that values Timor-Leste's history, 
its resistance and its veterans and former combatants.  He 
acknowledged that recent party meetings have discussed the 
possibility of CNRT supporting TMR to run for President.  Babo 
believed the majority of the party is in favor of this option, 
but underscored that Gusmao has not revealed his preferences yet. 
 
 
 
COMMENT 
 
 
 
¶13. The 2012 election cycle will likely contain both 
presidential and national parliamentary elections.  The big 
three political figures - Gusmao, Ramos-Horta and Alkatiri - 
will be 65, 62 and 62 years old, respectively, in 2012. 
Alkatiri is anxious to lead Fretilin into the elections to 
regain the prime ministership he lost in 2007, but the futures 
of Gusmao and Ramos-Horta are less clear.  Should one or both of 
them step aside, TMR would be among a small group of candidates 
to replace them. 
 
 
 
¶14. TMR's command of the F-FDTL and his guerilla history give 
him a national profile that few of his potential rivals would be 
able to match.  He is a charismatic leader known throughout the 
country; his visits even to the remotest areas bring out crowds 
of villagers shouting out his name.  TMR's high profile is 
colored, however, by his role in the still divisive experience 
of 2006, when regional, institutional and generational rivalries 
combined to produce the worst political violence in 
Timor-Leste's history as an independent country.  He has never 
held political office and is thus viewed by many as better 
suited to the more ceremonial role of the presidency than the 
leadership of a political party. 
 
 
 
¶15.  TMR is favorably disposed toward the U.S. and has welcomed 
increased military to military bilateral engagement as a 
valuable way to professionalize the F-FDTL.  He is leading an 
overhaul of the F-FDTL as an institution and hopes to 
dramatically change the force in the next 5-10 years.  He is a 
thoughtful interlocutor even though his formal education ended 
when he was 12 years old.  Although he prefers the use of a 
translator TMR is a strong English speaker with the ability to 
discuss complex issues ranging from long-term strategy to 
tactical guerilla warfare.  He comfortably holds his own with 
colleagues from other nations, and has extensive experience 
dealing with the senior military leaders of the Australian, New 
Zealand and United Nations contingents present in Timor-Leste 
since its birth as a country ten years ago. 
KLEMM