VZCZCXRO3621
PP RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHKA #1081/01 3350456
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 010456Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY DHAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9724
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DHAKA 001081 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR S/P - TANDREWS, SCA/INSB 
DEPT PLEASE PASS USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID ECON PREL SOCI BG
SUBJECT:  BANGLADESH RESPONSE:  QDDR GLOBAL CONTEXT SECTION 
 
REF: STATE 120172 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Mission Dhaka welcomes the opportunity to contribute to 
the QDDR process.  Bangladesh is home to 150 million people crowded 
into an area the size of Wisconsin.  This desperately poor nation 
faces immense challenges, including with regard to food security and 
climate change.  Bangladesh is also a moderate, Muslim-majority 
nation that is proud of its vibrant democracy and secular tradition. 
 Located at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia, it is 
critical the United States support Bangladesh's quest to prosper 
economically and politically. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Answers to reftel questions follow: 
 
-- To what degree will/can technology empower individuals, or civil 
society in the host country, to exercise a more active role in 
public life?  Are host country officials and citizens attuned to (or 
indifferent) to this issue?  Is the host government supportive of or 
hostile to expansion of access to social networks or other similar 
tools?  What non-state actors will be playing critical roles over 
the next two decades? 
 
Bangladesh boasts a vibrant civil society, with a strong tradition 
of non-governmental organizations that have emerged to play a major 
role as service providers within the country and outside its 
borders.  The Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee (BRAC) is one 
of the world's largest NGOs, while Bangladesh's Grameen Bank is a 
pioneer in the field of microcredit.   Despite the grinding poverty 
that exists within Bangladesh, the country has witnessed an 
explosion in the availability of mobile telephones, with an 
estimated 35 million current subscribers.  A key component of the 
ruling Awami League's election manifesto prior to the December 2008 
polls was the creation of a "digital Bangladesh" as a means towards 
realizing the party's "Vision 2021."   During the election campaign, 
the Awami League pioneered the use of video conferencing and other 
tools on its way to a landslide victory.  The key to achieving the 
goal of a "digital Bangladesh" will be creating an enabling 
environment that allows Bangladesh's dynamic private sector to 
invest in the spread of information technology.  This has been the 
key to the success of Bangladesh's readymade garment industry and 
the success of social entrepreneurship like the leading mobile phone 
provider, Grameenphone.   Vibrant civil society organizations and a 
grown private sector, buttressed by a free media, are critical to 
the continued resiliency of Bangladeshi society to the appeal of 
extremism. 
 
-- What attitude do critical publics in the host country display 
toward the so-called rising powers - India, China, and Brazil, for 
example - and how do they perceive other important international 
players, including key international organizations? 
 
Bangladesh maintains a complicated relationship with its larger 
neighbor, India, and important sections of public opinion remain 
suspicious of New Delhi's intentions towards smaller countries 
within the region.  The Awami League government led by Prime 
Minister Sheikh Hasina assumed office in January 2009 with a strong 
desire to improve relations with India and resolve longstanding 
bilateral issues.  The Prime Minister will visit New Delhi in late 
December and hopes to reach a comprehensive settlement on many of 
these issues.  At the same time, the government's freedom of action 
is constrained by fears of a public backlash led by the political 
opposition and elements within the security services who continue to 
see India as a potential threat.  Over the long term, the challenges 
of climate change, water scarcity, and illegal migration will 
continue to put a strain on Bangladesh's relationship with India. 
 
Bangladeshi elites are very interested in the status of Indo-U.S. 
relations and have sought assurances from us that our strategic 
partnership will not come at Bangladesh's expense.  We regularly 
face the criticism that the U.S. has "sub-contracted" our policy in 
the region to India.  We have sought to reassure our interlocutors 
that the U.S. does not see its relationship with Bangladesh through 
New Delhi's prism. 
 
Within the region, Bangladesh has traditionally been a strong 
supporter of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation 
(SAARC).  Former Bangladeshi President Ziaur Rahman was one of the 
leading forces behind the creation of SAARC.  Recognizing that 
SAARC's effectiveness has been hampered by tensions between India 
and Pakistan, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has proposed alternative 
mechanisms for regional and sub regional cooperation.   For example, 
Hasina proposed a "South Asian Task Force" to counter terrorism, 
which was intended to serve as a more flexible forum for cooperation 
between Bangladesh and its neighbors.  Envisioned as a "coalition of 
the willing," the South Asia Task Force would also provide a 
mechanism for participation by countries outside the region (e.g. 
the United States). 
 
As relations with India have been marked by suspicion over the 
 
DHAKA 00001081  002 OF 003 
 
 
decades, many in Bangladesh have seen improved ties with China as a 
counter to Indian hegemony.  In many ways, Bangladesh has emulated 
Pakistan's efforts to cultivate relations with China as a balance to 
India.  China has been an important military equipment supplier and 
the Chinese have been active in supporting major infrastructure 
projects.  There are fears that improved relations with India will 
lead to a cooling of ties with China.  The ruling Awami League 
recently sent a high-level party delegation to Beijing to attend the 
Chinese Communist Party Congress in an effort to allay these fears. 
Some in Bangladesh also worry that China's interest in hydrocarbon 
resources will eventually lead Beijing to side with Rangoon in its 
maritime boundary dispute with Dhaka.  For its part, China's 
interests in Bangladesh often mirror our own, with a focus on the 
investment climate and political stability. 
 
Brazil recently opened an Embassy in Dhaka, but it remains to be 
seen how active Brasilia's diplomatic mission will be.  Bangladesh's 
primary foreign policy interests relate to those countries that 
provide development assistance, provide markets for Bangladesh's 
exports, or provide jobs to Bangladeshi workers.  While Bangladesh 
has sought to play a leadership role among the Least Developed 
Countries in the WTO and other international fora, it has not been 
very active in bilateral diplomacy with others in the developing 
world outside groupings such as the Commonwealth and OIC's formal 
meetings. 
 
Bangladesh recognizes the importance of international development 
organizations and international financial institutions.   The World 
Bank, International Monetary Fund, Asian Development Bank, World 
Food Organization, United Nations Development Program, Food and 
Agriculture Organization, and United Nations Children's Fund all 
have active programs in Bangladesh.  Bangladesh is also the world's 
second leading contributor to United Nations Peacekeeping 
Operations, sending between 8,000 and 10,000 troops and police to 
UNPKO missions each year.   This is an important source of national 
pride and revenue for the Bangladesh Military. 
 
At times, such as prior to the decision to impose a State of 
Emergency in January 2007, the role of the international community 
in "interfering" in local politics becomes controversial.   Small 
leftist-leaning groups also regularly criticize the activities of 
multinational companies, aid organizations, and foreign militaries, 
accusing them of violating Bangladesh's sovereignty.  At the same 
time, polls universally demonstrate strong popular support for the 
role of the international community in helping to promote 
Bangladesh's development. 
 
-- What does the host country identify as the most important issues 
(both internal and external) critical to its own development and to 
international development writ large? 
 
Bangladesh's primary focus is on maintaining (or expanding) access 
to markets for its export oriented industries, which are a major 
source of foreign exchange and employment.  The ready made garment 
industry, for example, employs 3 million workers and generates 
billions in export earnings.  Similarly, Bangladesh depends upon 
remittances from the millions of Bangladeshi citizens working 
outside the country.  Official remittance flows now exceed $10 
billion/year. 
 
Bangladesh's development partners continue to provide much needed 
support for programs to ensure food security, promote public health, 
advance education, and prepare for (and respond to) natural 
disasters.  At the same time, Bangladesh is no longer the 
aid-dependent "basket case" described by foreign observers in the 
1970s.   Bangladesh's development is often constrained by the lack 
of capacity, inefficiency, and corruption within the public sector. 
 This has contributed to the rise of a vibrant non-governmental 
sector which plays a critical role in advancing development. 
 
For Bangladesh, the most pressing issue is ensuring food security 
for the country's growing population.  Already one of the world's 
most densely populated countries, Bangladesh's population is 
expected to nearly double within this century.  At the same time, 
the country loses 1% of arable land each year to environmental 
degradation and urbanization.  Feeding its people and avoiding price 
shocks is a critical concern for any government. 
 
-- What is the host country position on climate change issues, or on 
any resource conflict questions?  What steps is the host country 
government taking to deal with potential future demographic 
challenges? 
 
As one of the countries most vulnerable to global climate change and 
sea level rise, Bangladesh has become increasingly active and vocal 
in the run up to the Copenhagen Summit.  It is estimate that a one 
meter sea level rise would inundate up to one-third of Bangladesh's 
land area and create over 30 million climate refugees.  Bangladesh's 
water resources are also under strain.   Bangladesh also fears that 
 
DHAKA 00001081  003 OF 003 
 
 
global climate change will lead to more frequent and more severe 
cyclonic storms and flooding, which could have a devastating effect 
on the country.   While impressive strides have been made in the 
past in controlling population growth, more needs to be done by both 
the government and development partners.  Bangladeshis show 
remarkable resiliency, but demography and environmental challenges 
threaten to overwhelm the country in the coming century.  This would 
have serious effects not just in Bangladesh, but in the region. 
 
-- To what extent does "backsliding" pose a threat to local 
democratic movement (or to what degree does the country perceive 
this as a threat elsewhere)? 
 
Bangladesh's citizens went to the polls in record numbers in 
December 2008 and voted overwhelmingly to return the secular Awami 
League to power in elections widely considered the most free and 
fair in the country's history.   Since democracy was restored in 
1991, there have now been four largely successful national 
elections.  At the same time, the two-year caretaker government 
period from 2007 - 2009 highlighted the continuing challenges to 
institutionalizing democracy and improving governance. 
 
Bangladesh's politics remains highly polarized and characterized by 
winner-take-all, patron-client relationships.  Institutions are weak 
and power is unduly concentrated in the Prime Minister's hands. 
Parliament has been plagued by opposition boycotts, local government 
has been ineffective and starved of resources, and corruption 
remains endemic.  Constitutional bodies that are supposed to provide 
checks and balances have been politicized.  There is an uneasy 
relationship between the military and civilian governments.  The 
judiciary is dysfunctional and the police are widely seen as corrupt 
and ineffective.  On the positive side, civil society is vibrant and 
the media is relatively free.  The United States and other 
development partners are committed to helping Bangladesh improve 
governance as a foundation for sustainable economic growth. 
 
--Post-Cairo Follow-Up and Global Engagement 
 
Even as it confronts the many challenges facing the country as it 
heads into the new century, Bangladesh provides opportunities for 
the United States.  Our interlocutors in the Government and civil 
society have remarked upon the coincidence of interests with the 
Obama Administration's priorities, particularly on global issues 
such as food security, women's empowerment, peacekeeping reform, 
global health, and climate change.  There are opportunities for us 
to work with a moderate Muslim majority democracy founded upon the 
principles of secularism.  A more democratic and prosperous 
Bangladesh that resists extremism and that plays a constructive role 
in international forums would be a powerful potential ally for the 
United States.  While often relegated to the status of a "small 
country" Bangladesh's population of 150 million puts it into the top 
tier of most populous countries.  At the same time that this 
potential exists, there is also a risk that a failed state at the 
crossroads of South Asia would provide challenges for the U.S. and 
our allies in the region. 
 
DEAN