VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHWN #0771/01 3562245
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 222245Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0151
INFO EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000771 
 
SIPDIS 
AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/22 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM OAS XL
SUBJECT: Dominica's General Election Creates a Nearly One Party State 
 
DERIVED FROM: DSCG 05-1 B, D 
 
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Summary 
 
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¶1.  (C) Roosevelt Skerrit's Dominica Labour Party (DLP) won a 
landslide victory, capturing 18 of the 21 constituencies, with the 
opposition United Workers Party (UWP) relegated to only 3 seats. 
The final vote tally was 61 percent for the DLP, 35 percent for the 
UWP and 4 percent for the remaining parties.  Even the opposition 
leader, Ron Green, failed to hold his seat.  Although the election 
produced many tight races, with three constituencies being decided 
by fewer than five votes, the first-past-the-post electoral system 
once again produced an electoral result skewed heavily to the 
majority.  The opposition announced that it plans to boycott 
Parliament for the time being as a protest over allegations of 
election irregularities that included the government flying in 
voters from overseas at party expense.  CARICOM has officially 
announced the elections as fair and transparent, with the OAS 
statement likely to follow suit.  The result leaves Skerrit, who 
has been the Eastern Caribbean leader most closely aligned with 
Hugo Chavez, firmly ensconced for five more years.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
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Winning Strategy 
 
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¶2.  (C) Prime Minister Skerrit's comfortable victory December 18 
appears to have been based largely on his personal popularity and a 
populist message that carried well throughout the country.  Out of 
36,294 votes cast the result was 61 percent DLP, 35 percent UWP, 
2.5 percent Freedom, and 1.5 percent for the remaining candidates. 
Skerrit effectively campaigned on his relationships with Venezuela 
and China, and how their government aid programs had proven 
integral to the country's development.  Skerrit effectively 
portrayed large-scale projects of Windsor Cricket Stadium, the 
expansion of the airport, and the building of a sea wall as reasons 
for confidence in the future.  Also, his Chavez-style populist 
message played well in a country that suffers from persistent high 
unemployment and poor infrastructural development. 
 
 
 
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Election Irregularities and the OAS Position 
 
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¶3.  (C) While the Election Day voting seemed to proceed smoothly, 
with no indications of ballot stuffing or coercion, a number of 
potential violations of democratic principles in the weeks prior to 
the vote tarnished the results.  The DLP restricted radio access 
(the main source of information) for the opposition to one private 
station that only has coverage in approximately one quarter of the 
country.  The government stonewalled any attempt to update the 
voter lists, to provide any form of Voter ID, or to give any power 
to polling officials to enforce a provision of the election law 
that makes a voter ineligible if he or she has not returned to 
Dominica within the previous five-year period.  The lack of voter 
identification is the most troubling, as voters were not required 
to provide any documentation proving their identity, and only 
needed to provide their name, occupation, and address to the 
presiding officers at the polling station.  Even in cases where 
polling officials doubted the voter's identity or had a record of 
someone with the same name voting, a simple oath affirming one's 
true identity was all that was required to allow the vote to 
proceed.  Direct and indirect bribes are also alleged to have 
occurred, most notably via the buying of airplane tickets to 
pre-screened members of the Diaspora living in the U.S.  The main 
source of DLP campaign funding for such activities is alleged to 
have come from Venezuela and China. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (C) The CARICOM Observer mission called the election 
 
"transparent" on December 22, despite not making it to the majority 
of the polling stations.  The Organization of American States (OAS) 
observer team, in which an Embassy Poloff participated, indicated 
that it would also conclude the election to be free and fair.  Such 
a declaration only applies to Election Day activities, of course, 
and does not attempt to delve in the myriad challenges brought by 
the opposition.  Poloff's observations during the OAS mission 
confirm the basic position that Election Day activities were 
largely free of abuse.  That said, the opposition's claims of 
pre-election maneuvering that were not fully in the spirit of fair 
and transparent elections merit further review in any full 
assessment. 
 
 
 
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Opposition Failures and Boycott of Parliament 
 
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¶5.  (C) The UWP's poor showing reflects the party's failure to 
create a positive, alternate vision for the future, instead running 
its campaign almost solely on an anti-Skerrit platform.  The claims 
of corruption failed to resonate with the public, possibly in part 
because the UWP had its own serious corruption issues when it was 
last in power.  The opposition leader and deputy leader lost both 
of their races, with only ex-PM Edison James, who had himself been 
run out of office because of corruption, performing well.  Most 
notably, the third Dominican party, the Freedom Party, not only 
failed to win a seat, but was marginalized to the point of 
irrelevance.  According to sources in the UWP, they plan to boycott 
Parliament in order to highlight the issue of campaign impropriety. 
The opposition now recognizes the need to radically change its 
approach, by potentially merging all opposition groups into a new 
party, electing new leadership, and creating a new platform with a 
more positive vision for the future. 
 
 
 
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Lingering Disputes 
 
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¶6.  (C) Due to the many tight votes, including districts decided by 
two, three and five votes, further recounts and appeals are likely. 
The more important considerations are the court cases having to do 
with Skerrit's alleged dual citizenship, the complaints about 
restricted media access, and likely challenges to chartered flights 
and Voter ID procedures.  These challenges are unlikely to affect 
the election result. 
 
 
 
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Comment 
 
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¶7.  (C) The election turned into a rout due to the 
first-past-the-post electoral system, Skerrit's personal appeal, 
the DLP's heavy edge in financing from its foreign backers, the use 
of government office to influence voters, the public's seeming 
disinterest in corruption as an issue, the lack of confidence in 
uncharismatic opposition leader Ron Green, and the extreme 
marginalization of third party candidates.  The opposition boycott 
of parliament is unlikely to influence the government or the 
public, as most appear content with Skerrit and will view this 
tactic as sour grapes.  Skerrit now has a strong mandate and will 
likely be more aggressive in pursuing his pet projects such as the 
Red Clinic, a Chavez-style operation that entails Skerrit 
personally disbursing cash handouts to citizens that plead for 
assistance.  Without any significant obstacles from either the 
opposition or those within his party, Skerrit now has the 
opportunity to lead the country in whatever direction he seeks. 
Whether he chooses to tack hard to the left and further his links 
to Chavez, or decides he can now comfortably govern more from the 
center bears watching.  If the allegations of sizeable campaign 
donations from China and Venezuela are true, those countries might 
also look to cash in on their electoral investment in the coming 
years. 
HARDT