VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHWN #0741/01 3381840
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 041840Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0079
INFO EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000741 
 
SIPDIS 
AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/04 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ST XL
SUBJECT: PM PONDERS ELECTIONS AFTER FAILED REDISTRICTING BID 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: D. Brent Hardt, Charge d'Affairs a.i.; REASON: 1.4(B), 
(D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
 
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¶1. (C)  With no date yet set for St. Kitts and Nevis General 
elections, the constitutional deadline of March, 2010 is looming 
Larger, leaving the government with ever-more restricted room to 
maneuver.  After an apparent opposition legal victory stemming from 
accusations of gerrymandering by the ruling party, the government 
has indicated that it may appeal the ruling or repeat the 
redistricting exercise prior to the March date.  Meanwhile, rising 
crime and an explosion of gun violence is giving a boost to the 
often weak and ineffective opposition, which is also banking on 
incumbent fatigue among Kittitian voters.  With pundits predicting 
a potential dead heat on St. Kitts, the parties from the island of 
Nevis are almost certain to play a significant role in picking the 
next government.  End summary. 
 
 
 
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Waffling on Election Date 
 
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¶2. (C)  St. Kitts and Nevis Prime Minister Denzil Douglas told us 
in November that a date for the upcoming elections would have to 
wait until after all the court proceedings concerning the election 
boundaries redistricting dispute between the St. Kitts and Nevis 
Labour Party (SKNLP) and the opposition 
People's Action Movement (PAM) had played out.  The high court's 
recent decision against the government's initial boundary changes 
has further restricted PM Douglas' room to maneuver, though he 
appears determined to make another push on border changes. 
Attorney General Dennis Merchant indicated that he believed 
elections would be called in January and would be held sometime in 
February. 
 
 
 
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Crime is THE Issue of the Campaign 
 
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¶3.  (C)  Skyrocketing crime rates, particularly violent crime, is a 
serious concern for all Kittitians, as St. Kitts now has the second 
highest per capita murder rate in the world.  Crime is indisputably 
the issue that will determine to outcome of the upcoming elections, 
according to both ruling party and opposition contacts.  The 
opposition PAM has made fighting crime and addressing youth 
violence the centerpiece of its party platform.  The daily drumbeat 
from the party's social media website is almost solely devoted to 
pointing out the government's failure to address the issue and 
highlighting PAM's plan to bring law and order back to the island. 
PAM has also highlighted the fact of St. Kitts and Nevis world 
leading per capita murder and gun violence rates, and has laid the 
blame squarely at the feet of the SKNLP and PM Douglas.  For its 
part, the SKNLP has sought to highlight its efforts to combat 
crime, often blaming the issue on external factors beyond their 
control, such as criminal deportees from the U.S. and the UK.  They 
also blame the rise in gun violence on gun smugglers and the ease 
with which individuals can illegally ship guns from the United 
States. 
 
 
 
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Pre-Elections Violence on the Rise 
 
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¶4.  (C) According to PAM contacts, armed intruders broke into the 
home of PAM candidate Bernard Welsh on October 17 and terrorized 
his family.  In a speech following the event, PAM leader Grant 
contended that the assault was the direct result of his party's 
strong anti-crime platform.  Grant also claims that PAM candidate 
Eugene Hamilton suffered injuries when a group of individuals 
targeted the PAM platform of speakers when they were assembled for 
a rally.  There have been no reports of specific election-related 
violence in the official media.  However, according to local lawyer 
Charles Wilkins, who represents many of the largest land owners on 
the island, there is a real chance for election violence as the 
elections drawn near. 
 
 
 
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Opposition Wins Key Redistricting Court Case 
 
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¶5.  (C)  In July, the ruling SKNLP passed a parliamentary ruling 
changing the election boundaries in several key districts, 
including the district of PAM leader Lindsay Grant.  The 
Harvard-educated Grant contends that the move was a deliberate 
attempt to move PAM voters out and SKNLP voters into his district. 
The Eastern Caribbean Supreme Court recently found in favor of the 
PAM, ruling that the procedures used in drawing up the constituency 
boundaries were invalid and therefore null and void.  The PAM argue 
that this was a victory for democracy in the face of the SKNLP's 
attempt to steal the upcoming election.  "They know that they can't 
beat the PAM in the upcoming election, not with their record on 
crime over the past 10 years, so they had to resort to schemes like 
changing the election boundaries in order to win," PAM party leader 
Lindsay Grant complained. 
 
 
 
¶6.  (C)  The SKNLP, meanwhile, has taken a decidedly more positive 
spin on the rejection of its redistricting plan by the courts.  PM 
Douglas noted that the court ruled that the SKNLP had not acted 
improperly, as the opposition had claimed, simply that procedurally 
the boundaries changes were invalid.  According to Douglas, the 
court found no cause in the PAM's assertions that the SKNLP 
attempted to gerrymander the constituency boundaries.  While not 
yet certain if they will appeal the high court ruling, Douglas 
explained that the best course of action may be to restart the 
boundaries redistricting process again prior to the elections. 
 
 
 
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Nevis Party Likely to Play King Maker 
 
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¶7. (C)  The parties from Nevis, The Nevis Reform Party (NRP) and 
the Concerned Citizens Movement (CCM), hold 3 of the 11 elected 
seats in parliament, which is linked to the number of electoral 
districts on Nevis.  Both sides admit that this election is likely 
to be closer than the last election, which means that if the PAM 
can secure 3 seats in the upcoming election then the parties from 
Nevis will determine the winning coalition in Parliament.  With the 
two parties from St. Kitts fighting it out over 8 seats there is a 
real chance that the elections could lead to a divided government. 
When this occurred in the 1993 elections the Nevis parties refused 
to form a coalition government, which lead to civil unrest in the 
two island federation.  Alluding to this concern, CCM party leader 
Vance Amory, told us that the CCM would likely caucus with the PAM 
if they can secure enough seats to form a coalition.  Amory 
believes the people of SKN are ready to for a change and said it 
was time for Douglas to give someone else a chance to run the 
country. 
 
 
 
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Tourism push is centerpiece of ruling party 
 
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¶8. (C)  The government has placed high hopes on its 
tourism-centered development plan and is hoping that tangible 
returns in the form of increased local employment opportunities 
will carry them to victory.  Government-sponsored signs 
proclaiming, "Tourism -- It's Working" abound across the island. 
According to Tourism Minister Ricky Skerrit, the government's 
tourism 
push has led to a significant increase in employment within the 
sector, which is translating into broad support for the SKNLP among 
the electorate. 
 
 
 
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No Dual Nationals Allowed to Run 
 
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¶9. (C)  The Parliament passed legislation November 5, requiring 
that all candidates swear that they are qualified under Sections 27 
and 28 of the Constitution of St. Kitts and Nevis to run for 
legislative office.  Sections 27 and 28 under the constitution 
stipulate that members of the national legislature may not hold the 
nationality of or allegiances to any other country.  The SKNLP is 
concerned that several members of the PAM have retained their U.S. 
nationality, which would disqualify them from running for office. 
 
 
 
 
 
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Comment 
 
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¶10. (C)  The SKNLP appeared to be the clear favorite in early 2009. 
Since then, however, the PAM's campaign to blame the government for 
the stratospheric rise in crime has started to pay dividends. 
SKNLP party members, including Finance Minster Harris and Attorney 
General Dennis Merchant, admit to us privately that the party has a 
real fight on its hands this time.  The last election saw the SKNLP 
take 7 of the 8 seats coming from electoral districts in St. Kitts, 
but few expect a landslide of this proportion coming out of the 
upcoming elections.  This time around, the SKNLP will be lucky to 
lose only one or two more seats, and may lose more if recent trends 
in the region in favor of opposition parties holds sway in St. 
Kitts. 
HARDT