VZCZCXRO7350
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0832/01 3380735
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 040735Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3089
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000832 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E MARIA BEYZEROV 
DEPT PASS TO USAID/AFR/EA ASHLEY MARCUS 
DOC FOR RTELCHIN 
TREASURY FOR FRANCOIS BOYE 
PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN 
LONDON FOR PETER LORD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EINV MA
SUBJECT: ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON WEEKLY UPDATE (04-DEC-2009) 
 
REF: ANTANANARIVO 831 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: This is U.S. Embassy Antananarivo's Weekly Update 
for November 30 to December 4, an unclassified review of major 
political, economic, and commercial events and information from the 
U.S. Mission to Madagascar and the Comoros. 
 
POLITICS (Paragraphs 2-4) 
- TRANSITION CABINET REMAINS BLOCKED 
- POLITICAL OUTREACH, OR OUTRIGHT CAMPAIGNING? 
- MERCHANT PROTEST 
 
ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL (Paragraphs 5-7) 
- WORLD BANK VISIT 
- EHOALA PORT BLOCKED 
- PRECIOUS HARDWOODS OFF THE MARKET? 
 
COMOROS (Paragraphs 8-13) 
- LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS 
- WINDFALL FROM ECONOMIC CITIZENSHIP? 
- JAPANESE RICE DONATION 
- ELECTION OBSERVERS ARRIVE 
- ARREST OF JOURNALIST 
- FUNERAL FOR YEMENIA CRASH VICTIMS 
 
END SUMMARY 
 
-------- 
POLITICS 
-------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) TRANSITION CABINET REMAINS BLOCKED: In an effort to solve 
the current blockage in the formation of a transition cabinet, SADC 
mediator (and former President of Mozambique) Joaquim Chissano 
invited all four movements for yet another summit abroad, this time 
in Maputo on December 3 to 4.  All but Rajoelina's movement departed 
for Mozambique Dec. 3.  Ravalomanana identified a number of disputes 
that require, in his opinion, further top-level negotiation, 
including the unresolved cabinet positions, the functioning of the 
co-presidency, and the timeline for elections.  Rajoelina remained 
in Madagascar, but may join the others via DVC (Antan 831). 
 
¶3. (SBU) POLITICAL OUTREACH, OR OUTRIGHT CAMPAIGNING? Rajoelina and 
Co-President of the Presidential Council Fetison Rakoto Andrianirina 
(from Ravalomanana's movement) have already begun thinly-veiled 
campaigning in several provincial cities.  Rajoelina delivered 
back-pay to employees of the national sugar company SIRAMA in two 
cities, and has made a series of appearances to inaugurate roads, 
bridges, and even a university dormitory.  Andrianirina, often 
traveling with newly-appointed President of the Transition Congress 
Mamy Rakotoarivelo, has undertaken provincial visits to cities where 
Ravalomanana's company TIKO has major interests.  The official 
reason for these visits was to explain the new political agreements 
to the population, but with little progress on their implementation, 
some have commented that the co-presidency should consider the 
pressing matters in Tana before undertaking such obviously political 
activities and trips. 
 
¶4. (SBU) MERCHANT PROTEST: During the past few weeks, the unelected 
mayor (PDS, in local parlance) of Antananarivo has initiated an 
unpopular measure to clean up the city and to ease the traffic, 
focused on moving street merchants out of the streets and into newly 
setup markets.  These measures have led to the discontent of the 
street merchants: two employees of the municipality were injured by 
the merchants in one market; other merchants launched a strike and a 
sit-in in another market; the merchants refuse to abide by the new 
measure; and complaints were widely relayed in the media.  After 
having used the local police to clear the "squatted" streets and to 
scatter demonstrators, the city has finally conceded to the 
merchants' request: continue to sell on the streets during the 
holiday season, and leave in January.  The PDS clearly stated, 
however, that the merchants must leave the first week of January as 
he will resume the implementation of this policy then, likely 
producing tension again at that time. 
 
 
 
----------------------- 
ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL 
----------------------- 
 
 
ANTANANARI 00000832  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) WORLD BANK VISIT: An evaluation team from the World Bank 
quietly visited Madagascar this week to prepare the way for 
re-launching some of its programs, 95 percent of which are frozen, 
in the event of the establishment of a transition government.  In 
the interim, the Bank plans to ramp up efforts to ensure that 
government officials and the public at large understand better how 
much Bank funding is being lost as the political conflict persists, 
adding additional stakes to the public discourse already centered on 
AGOA eligibility and EU aid.  Meeting with the ambassador and P/E 
chief, the team lamented the lack of independence and utility of the 
anti-corruption agency they previously funded; the increase in 
corruption and rent-seeking behaviors, particularly at the economic 
ministry; significant decline in exports and tourism; and the 
expected poor rice harvest in 2010.  They confirmed that some 
government employees had been laid-off while others hadn't received 
salaries recently and said that they suspected that there are 
arrears in salary payments, despite government data indicating 
otherwise.  They anticipate that the transition government will need 
budget support to operate and questioned how the USG would respond 
to a proposal to provide budget support at the WB board if such a 
proposal were presented. 
 
¶6. (SBU) EHOALA PORT BLOCKED: A group of fishermen and landowners 
blocked access from November 24 to December 2 to the port of Ehoala, 
in Fort Dauphin, claiming compensation from local Rio Tinto 
affiliate QMM.  All activities were suspended for QMM, Ehoala port 
and their contractors, preventing the exportation and importation of 
goods to the region.  Three ships were unable to land at Ehoala. 
The Regional Chief finally took action to remove the barricades, 
following instructions from authorities in Tana to do so after 
intervention of the US and French Ambassadors and the World Food 
Program.  The lifting of the blockage was just in time for the 
arrival of a ship transporting 2,700 tons of humanitarian aid. 
QMM's officials have asked local authorities and the government to 
enforce the laws, and carry out a rigorous, credible and transparent 
assessment of the impacts of QMM's investments. 
 
¶7. (SBU) PRECIOUS HARDWOODS OFF THE MARKET? In his first acts as 
Prime Minister, Eugene Mangalaza has signed and distributed two 
documents, signed November 30, in which he marks the end to the 
controversial "liquidation of stocks" of precious hardwoods, and 
orders all ministries to ensure that the exploitation, transport, 
and trade of precious wood comes to a halt.  He has also requested a 
complete account from the ministries and regions concerned of the 
status of the fees and royalties required in the September 21 
decree.  This kind of high level attention, at such an early stage 
in the transition government, is a positive sign that the PM takes 
the issue seriously; whether he will be able to influence key lower 
level actors remains to be seen.  On December 1 he asked the US, 
France, Germany/EU and the Dean to help support him, and 
subsequently the Norwegian ambassador (on instructions from Oslo) is 
taking the lead in organizing "like-minded ambassadors" (plus China) 
to support the PM's early initiative. 
 
 
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COMOROS 
------- 
 
¶8. (U) LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS: The upcoming legislative elections (to 
be held on December 6 and December 20) are generating great interest 
among the Comoran people.  Large campaign rallies are common, 
including some which resemble American-style town hall meetings with 
their traditional back-and-forth between candidates and those in the 
crowd.  Worthy of note is the fact that 54 of the 268 candidates 
(about 20 percent) are female.  By comparison, the percentage of 
women in the previous legislative bodies was only 2 percent. 
 
¶9. (U) WINDFALL FROM ECONOMIC CITIZENSHIP? President Sambi, in his 
remarks Friday marking the Muslim holiday of Eid El Adha, surprised 
his audience by announcing that he has received a letter of 
guarantee worth 175 million USD from the sale of Comoran citizenship 
to nearly 800 people.  According to President Sambi, the money will 
be used to finance infrastructure projects such as roads and 
hospitals.  The remarks have unsettled more than a few Comorans, 
however, as the mechanisms by which these funds were obtained, and 
by which they will be allocated, remain rather opaque - as does the 
overall concept of "economic citizenship". 
 
¶10. (U) JAPANESE RICE DONATION: The Japanese government has donated 
7500 tons of rice to the Government of the Union of the Comoros. 
 
ANTANANARI 00000832  003 OF 003 
 
 
The rice will be re-sold to the public at 7500 KMF (about 23 USD) 
for a 30 kg sac.  This translates to a price of 250KMF/kg, slightly 
below the current market price of aboQ 275 KMF/kg.  The proceeds 
from the sale are earmarked for the financing of certain government 
development projects, though many Comoran observers wonder how this 
will work in practice. 
 
¶11. (U) ELECTION OBSERVERS ARRIVE: A group of African Union election 
observers has arrived in Moroni.  Led by Anil Gayan, the former 
Foreign Minister of Mauritius, the mission includes 20 members, 
including parliamentarians, representatives of African electoral 
institutions, and members of civil society groups.  They will be 
joined by a small team of observers from Embassy Tana who will 
observe the election procedures on all three islands in both rounds. 
 
 
¶12. (U) ARREST OF JOURNALIST: Journalist Kamal Ali Yahoudha of the 
newspaper La Gazette des Comores was arrested Tuesday following an 
article he published accusing one of President Sambi's special 
counselors of having instigated a demonstration in Anjouan last week 
against the head of the Comoran army, General Salimou.  Yahoudha was 
held overnight and was to be arraigned December 2.  La Gazette has 
vigorously condemned what it sees as an obvious infringement on the 
liberty of the press in the run-up to this weekend's legislative 
elections. 
 
¶13. (U) FUNERAL FOR YEMENIA CRASH VICTIMS: President Sambi spoke to 
a crowd over 1000 gathered outside Moroni for the funeral of 59 of 
the 152 victims killed in the crash of the Yemenia Airways A310 on 
June 30.  In addition to President Sambi, the crowd heard emotional 
speeches from local religious dignitaries, a representative from the 
collective of bereaved families, and French special envoy Ambassador 
Christine Robichon. 
 
MARQUARDT