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DE RUEHAK #1718/01 3371613
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O 031613Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1366
INFO RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHTH/AMEMBASSY ATHENS PRIORITY 0168
RUEHNC/AMEMBASSY NICOSIA PRIORITY 6759
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 4170
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001718 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2019 
TAGS: CY PREL TU UNFICYP US
SUBJECT: TURKISH MFA SEES CYPRUS TALKS AS GLASS HALF FULL 
 
REF: ANKARA 1644 
 
Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons: 1.4 (b,d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY.  The MFA's Deputy Director General for Cyprus 
told us December 2 that Ankara is still waiting for a reply 
from Athens to PM Erdogan's proposal for quadrilateral talks 
on a Cyprus settlement, but that Turkey is newly optimistic 
about the prospects for a solution after the November 18 
hearing in the European Court of Human Rights.  That hearing 
focused on the "TRNC" mechanism for resolving Greek Cypriot 
property claims, and the MFA believes the court showed it 
leans toward the Turkish Cypriot argument that the mechanism 
is both fair and adequate.  A ruling is expected in March. 
The MFA views property as the key element in the 
negotiations, and is working out financing mechanisms for 
compensation, but notes that Greek Cypriots must be 
"realistic" about the current market value of their 
properties in the north.  The MFA believes the two sides are 
sufficiently close on issues such as governance and 
power-sharing.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C) In a December 2 meeting, MFA Deputy Director General 
for Cyprus and Greece Kerim Uras said Ankara's attitude 
toward the Cyprus negotiations received a substantial boost 
from the April 18 hearings at the European Court of Human 
Rights, given what they perceive as the Court's apparent 
sympathy for the "TRNC" mechanism to deal with Greek Cypriot 
property claims.  Uras said he views property as the key 
element of the Cyprus talks.  If the court ruling, expected 
in March, favors the Turkish Cypriot side it would contribute 
significantly to a successful outcome of the negotiations, 
Uras contended.  He added that a contrary ruling would have 
dire consequences not only on the talks but also on Turkey's 
orientation toward Europe. 
 
Financing for Compensation Claims 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Uras said the MFA is working on a plan to provide 
financing via Turkish banks for Greek Cypriots whose property 
claims are settled by compensation.  He said Ankara envisions 
that roughly one third of the claims would be resolved 
through compensation, one third by exchanges, and one third 
by returnees.  The bank financing would allow Greek Cypriots 
who agree on compensation to be paid immediately, if they so 
choose, but would also enable them to wait until the market 
value of the property rises as expected several years after 
the island is reunited.  Uras said the key at this point is 
for Greek Cypriots to be "realistic" about the current market 
value of their properties, which lag at about 30 percent of 
property values in southern Cyprus. 
 
¶4. (C) With property issues resolved, Uras said he believes 
the two sides are well within compromise range on issues such 
as power-sharing and governance.  The current disconnect on 
direct versus indirect election of the president and vice 
president can be bridged fairly easily.  He conceded, 
however, that the National Unity Party's (UBP) view on this 
issue differs markedly from "TRNC President" Talat's, and 
said this division had been on display during the December 1 
visit to Ankara by Talat and the "TRNC Foreign Minister." 
Uras said Talat feels his position is being constantly 
undermined by UBP "Prime Minister" Eroglu, and that this was 
the main reason behind his recent trip to Ankara: to complain 
to PM Erdogan.  Talat and Erdogan had a lengthy one-on-one 
meeting; Uras did not know the result.  Uras denied that 
Talat returned to Cyprus with a dramatic "new proposal," as 
media reports had trumpeted. 
 
¶6. (C) On the duration of the talks, Uras said Ankara still 
holds the view that the negotiations should conclude by early 
March, given the April "TRNC Presidential" elections.  But he 
added that even in the "worst case scenario" of an Eroglu 
victory, Ankara would not abandon the talks but would instead 
insist that they continue under a mechanism that allowed for 
Eroglu's lack of English, perhaps through an appointed 
representative.  He noted that the latest Turkish Cypriot 
polls show rising support for Talat, probably because voters 
have seen no discernible difference in the economy or public 
services from the UBP since it took over as the new ruling 
party. 
 
"Bizonal, Bicommunal" Stance Restored 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Uras confirmed that FM Davutoglu had agreed to the EU 
Troika's request to issue a statement November 26 reiterating 
Turkey's support for a "bizonal, bicommunal federation based 
on political equality."  The "bizonal, bicommunal" phrasing 
had been avoided during the tenure of previous MFA 
Undersecretary Apakan, Uras said, because Apakan had argued 
that the Turkish Cypriots should be seen as a "people," and 
not a "community," to ensure their sovereign rights.  The 
current MFA regime has no such qualms.  We pressed Uras to 
recommend that PM Erdogan make the same public statement.  He 
had no objection. 
 
¶8. (C) We also urged that PM Erdogan underscore in public his 
proposal for quadrilateral discussions contained in his 
recent letter to Greek PM Papandreou.  (Note: The British 
have made a separate proposal for trilateral talks.  End 
Note)  We added that PM Erdogan should also reiterate 
Turkey's commitment to a massive troop withdrawal from Cyprus 
in the event of a solution, and its willingess to review and 
revise the Turkish guarantee after a settlement.  Uras saw no 
problem with the first two suggestions, but said it would be 
premature to broach the guarantee now.  That would have to 
wait until later in the negotiating process.  On regional 
discussions, he said Ankara would prefer a quadrilateral 
approach, because it wants to have direct discussions with 
Greek Cypriot leader Christofias -- but without undercuttting 
Talat. 
 
¶9. (C) Uras acknowledged the optical value in such statements 
by PM Erdogan, but was dismissive of the potential threat of 
a harsh EU Progress Report or a Greek Cypriot block on 
Turkey's Environment Chapter.  Ankara is convinced that a 
rollover of the Additional Ankara Protocol is well in hand, 
he said, and is also not worried about seeing its EU 
accession process grind to a halt on December 21 if the 
Environment Chapter is not opened.  The EU process is already 
in trouble, he said, so there is no reason to be fearful.  He 
used a well-known Turkish proverb: "The dead donkey does not 
fear the wolf." 
 
¶10. (C) On a side note, Uras said the Greek Cypriots had 
applied much pressure on Syria to halt the Latakia-Famagusta 
ferry, but that the Syrians had refused, and the ferry 
continues to operate.  In addition, the Haifa-Famagusta ferry 
will soon resume, despite GOC objections to the Israeli 
Government.  Uras suggested that these "signals" to the Greek 
Cypriots, in addition to the recent undercurrents at the EU 
Court of Human Rights, may have convinced the Greek Cypriots 
to be more conciliatory -- which in turn is giving Ankara 
renewed hope that a settlement may indeed be within reach. 
 
JEFFREY 
 
           "Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s 
gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"