VZCZCXRO5932
RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHYE #0770/01 3060915
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 020915Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9687
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000770 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2019 
TAGS: PBTS PGOV PREL MARR TU AJ AM
SUBJECT: DEFENSE, FOREIGN AFFAIRS MINISTERS EVASIVE ON 
SARGSIAN'S NK VISIT 
 
REF: IIR 6 942 0006 10/ARMENIAN PRESIDENT REVIEWS 
     TROOPS IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH 
 
Classified By: AMB Marie L. Yovanovitch, for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) During separate meetings with Defense Minister Seyran 
Ohanian on October 27 and Foreign Affairs Minister Edward 
Nalbandian on October 29, the Ambassador asked the ministers 
about the purpose of President's recent two-day visit to 
Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) to inspect troops, and the 
uncharacteristically high-profile jabs he took at Azerbaijani 
president Ilham Aliyev while there.  Both ministers answered 
evasively, and were at visible pains to downplay the 
significance and nature of the highly publicized visit.  FM 
Nalbandian eventually told the Ambassador that the format of 
the trip was necessary to counteract the Diaspora and the 
opposition Dashnaktsutiun party criticism that the president 
is making secret concessions on NK.  During the meeting with 
Defense Minister Ohanian, who accompanied the president on 
his NK visit, the Minister downplayed any Azerbaijani threat 
to NK, but instead raised concerns with what he called the 
ongoing "transformation" of Turkey's Third Army from a 
defensive to offensive force.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
NO "INSPECTION" OF NK TROOPS -- ONLY "FAMILIARIZATION" 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶2. (C) During her October 27 meeting with Defense Minister 
Seyran Ohanian, the Ambassador raised the high-profile visit 
he and President Sargsian paid to Nagorno-Karabakh on October 
21-22, and asked what the purpose of the visit had been.  The 
Ambassador commented that the visit appeared more 
high-profile than those in the past, that the president 
uncharacteristically took pointed jabs at Azerbaijani 
president Ilham Aliyev, and that his unfettered use of the 
phraseology "our troops" appeared out of character for the 
president.  Ohanian smiled at the suggestion that there was 
any "message" conveyed in the nature of the visit, noting 
that the president did not "inspect" the troops, as the 
Ambassador had noted, but merely was "familiarizing" himself 
with them.  Ohanian said such visits are routine, and were 
undertaken by Armenia's two previous presidents as well. 
Ohanian did note that "it is no secret that Armenia supports 
Karabakh," and that "it is in our military doctrine to ensure 
that the population of Karabakh lives in peace."  Without 
specifying which borders he meant--Armenia's or those of 
Nagorno-Karabakh--Ohanian added that the president's visits 
are meant to ensure and reinforce the security of "our 
borders." 
 
------------------------------------- 
A "REGULAR" VISIT -- WELL, NOT REALLY 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) During the Ambassador's meeting with Foreign Minister 
Nalbandian on October 29, Nalbandian downplayed the purpose 
and conduct of the visit, echoing Ohanian in saying these 
were "regular" visits the president takes on a quarterly 
basis.  (NOTE:  Since assuming office on April 9, 2008, 
President Sargsian has made six visits to NK, including the 
recent one, that Post is aware of.  END NOTE.)  When asked if 
there was any special message conveyed by this trip, 
Nalbandian shot back that the only special messages on NK 
were being delivered by Azerbaijan--and not by Armenia.  Then 
dropping his guard, Nalbandian acknowledged that the nature 
of the visit was "inspired" by the heat that the president 
has been taking from Diaspora and opposition groups, 
particularly the Armenian Revolutionary Federation - 
Dashnaktsutiun (ARF) on the normalization process with 
Turkey, and their suggestions that the president is making 
secret concessions with Azerbaijan on NK in order to appease 
Turkey.  These critics, Nalbandian stated, also accuse 
President Sargsian of dropping his guard in maintaining the 
battle readiness of troops to defend NK. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
THREATS FROM AZERBAIJAN? NO, BUT TURKEY PERHAPS 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶4. (C) When asked by the Ambassador if the confrontational 
nature of the president's visit was motivated by a recent 
military development in Azerbaijan, Defense Minster Ohanian 
replied that Azerbaijan's astronomical defense budget and its 
brazen exceeding of its CFE quotas "speaks for itself" as 
well as "the offensive nature" of Azerbaijani intentions 
 
YEREVAN 00000770  002 OF 002 
 
 
vis-a-vis settlement of the NK conflict.  Ohanian sought to 
downplay any Armenian concerns over Azerbaijan's defense 
build-up, however, asserting that "we manage to maintain a 
balance between Azerbaijan's quantity and the quality of our 
armed forces." 
 
¶5. (C) Interestingly, Ohanian independently raised the 
subject of Turkey's Third Army in eastern Turkey, saying that 
the GOAM had noticed it was transforming its Cold War-era 
defensive function to one that has offensive capabilities. 
When asked if he thought this was directed at Armenia, 
Ohanian initially demurred, and said that it probably had 
more to do with Turkey's perceptions of a Kurdish threat 
coming out of Iraq and the fact that the Third Army no longer 
needed to serve as a defensive deterrent against a Soviet 
invasion. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶6. (C) Contrary to what his ministers want us to believe, 
President Sargsian's latest visit to NK was definitely not a 
"regular" one.  This was evidenced by its high level of media 
attention; the "inspection" of "our troops;" the president's 
long, off-the-cuff remarks delivered to media in field 
fatigues; the out-of-character personal jabs he took at 
Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev; and the wreath-laying at 
the memorial to the Armenian-American war hero Monte 
Melkonian.  It appears clear to Post that the visit was 
directed at multiple audiences:  Azerbaijan, Diaspora and 
domestic opponents, and Armenian populations in Armenia and 
NK.  The message, however, is harder to ascertain; whether 
this was to reassure his Armenian constituencies (in NK, 
Armenia, and the Diaspora) of no secret concessions, lay down 
a new marker to Azerbaijan, or a combination of both, is hard 
to tell.  One thing is certain, however, Sargsian does not 
want to look vulnerable on the one issue he cannot afford to 
mishandle:  Nagorno-Karabakh. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
YOVANOVITCH