VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTV #2536/01 3281024
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241024Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4334
RUEHSS/OECD POSTS COLLECTIVE
INFO RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM 3238
RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN 6904
RUEAEPA/EPA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS TEL AVIV 002536 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR OES/ENV, NEA/RA AND NEA/IPA 
AMMAN FOR ESTH - BHALLA 
EPA for International - Metcalfe 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV ENRG KGHG OECD IS
SUBJECT: Israeli Climate Change Policy Faces Grim Reality 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Israel's Environmental Protection Ministry (MEP) 
admits that its evolving climate change policy will not be able to 
reduce the country's CO2 emissions anywhere near the degree that 
climate change advocates recommend.  Studies project a full doubling 
of Israel's emissions from today until 2030. Even a full-scale 
conservation and conversion effort may still yield a 30 percent rise 
in output.  GOI plans a substantive delegation going to the Climate 
Change summit in Copenhagen, though acknowledges that its 
contribution may disappoint.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) In early November, Israeli Environment Minister Gilad Erdan 
received the final report commissioned from McKinsey and Company on 
the country's future greenhouse gas emissions.  The report projects 
that the current 71 million tons of CO2 Israel produces will rise to 
142 million tons by 2030 in the "business as usual" forecast, a full 
100 percent increase.  The new data will form the basis for the 
National Plan which the MEP is preparing.  The McKinsey data are 
even more grim than a previous study done by an Israeli firm, which 
last spring forecast a 63 percent increase in GHG emissions over a 
year 2000 baseline by 2025.  At present, Israel's per capita 
emissions data place it between Japan and the UK, about half the US 
per capita rate, according to IEA figures. 
 
¶3. (U) The news disappoints the increasingly vocal environmental 
lobby, but MEP officials defensively note that the countries able to 
score major reductions in CO2 output from 1990 or 2000 levels had 
major smokestack industries (steel, automobiles, heavy 
manufacturing) that were dismantled or renovated, whereas Israel has 
none of these.  Israel has less high-polluting industry to give up. 
The bulk of projected emissions growth in Israel will occur because 
of growth in population, which is increasing by 1.3 percent 
annually, rising living standards, and rising energy consumption - 
particularly for water desalination. 
 
¶4. (U) MEP plans to tackle the challenge through both short-term 
investments and long-term social policies.   At present 55 percent 
of Israel's GHG emissions come from electricity generation, 18 
percent from transportation, 10 percent from garbage and waste 
treatment, and 5 percent each from agriculture, cement, and building 
sectors.  The government's goal of producing 10 percent of its 
electric power from alternative sources (chiefly solar) by 2020 may 
be bumped up to 25 percent by 2030.  Other potential cuts could be 
realized by improving lighting efficiency nationwide, moving to 
electric cars, and making homes and offices more thermally efficient 
to save on energy.   Longer term behavioral modifications in 
Israelis could potentially net energy savings through greater use of 
public transportation, using 15 percent less water, turning air 
conditioning thermostats 2 degrees higher, and consuming less meat. 
 McKinsey estimated that together these actions could hold the 
emissions rise to only 91-97 million tons - still 30 percent above 
today's level but nearly 70 percent less increase than would 
otherwise be generated. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The McKinsey report included emissions from the Occupied 
Territories in the Israeli data.  This added 6 percent (8 million 
tons) to the total.  Should the PA component be subtracted, Israeli 
emissions growth might decline further from the projected level, due 
to the impact that greater demand from an on average younger, lower 
standard of living Palestinian population is having on the energy 
use forecast. 
 
¶6. (U) Yossi Inbar, Director General of MEP speaking at a Water 
Technology conference November 18, defended the country's growth of 
energy use by noting Israel's 4 to 5 percent GDP growth rate over 
the past few years (although this year growth will slip to under 1 
percent).  This growth rate exceeds that of the OECD average, and on 
top of the population growth rate substantiates growing energy 
consumption.   The prospective doubling of Israel's economy by 2030 
while emissions increase only 30 percent implies significant 
improvement in energy efficiency.  Energy use for desalination will 
have a major impact.   Israel's energy constraints are clear, Inbar 
said: it has no hydroelectric possibilities, nuclear is unadvisable 
given the region's politics, and the country has no coal or oil 
deposits, and only recently discovered some natural gas offshore - 
which will take 2-3 years to tap into.  He was guarded about 
Israel's ability to ramp up solar and wind to 25 percent of 
consumption, observing that it requires 2 hectares of land per 
megawatt of concentrated solar thermal power.  He doubted that 200 
square kilometers of Israel could be dedicated to energy 
production. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment: MEP officials acknowledge that Israel's incipient 
national plan may not be impressive compared to others to be 
unveiled in Copenhagen, but it is realistic and reflects Israel's 
unique economic niche.  Israel features a developing country growth 
 
rate, but with a developed nation's living standard and rate of 
energy use.  GOI incentives to promote private-sector investment in 
alternative energy production are generating commercial interest 
here.  For example, the GOI's long-term guarantee of higher feed-in 
tariffs for solar-generated electricity have attracted attention 
from Arava Power/Global Sun Israel, which is planning several 
projects in the Arava region (Arava Power has approached OPIC for 
financing).  MEP officials underscore that Israel's overall 
contribution to global GHG emissions is paltry compared to that of 
other countries, about three-tenths of 1 percent of global CO2. 
Nonetheless, they evidence some concern that OECD members will find 
the Israeli climate change program disappointing. 
 
Cunningham