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OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHRA #0564/01 3281454
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O 241454Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY RIGA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6154
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000564 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL LV
SUBJECT: LATVIAN POLITICAL BATTLELINES: A FOUR-WAY FIGHT 
 
REF: RIGA 533 
 
Classified By: DCM BRUCE ROGERS, REASONS 1.4 (B) and (D) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: As the Latvian budget winds through debate 
and negotiation with the IMF, political coalitions are 
firming up in advance of the October 2010 parliamentary 
elections.  Three centrist parties of the governing coalition 
are forming a common front, under the banner of the name 
"Unity."  The powerful vice-mayor of Riga, Ainars Slesers has 
assumed full control of a two-party combination (Latvia's 
First Party/Latvia's Way), now formally allied with the 
largely ethnic-Russian Harmony Center.  Three-time Prime 
Minister Andris Skele has also taken full control of the 
increasingly populist People's Party, criticizing the ruling 
coalition while remaining the largest party inside the 
government.  The Greens and Farmers Union of Aivars Lembergs, 
currently on an extended trial for corruption, also remains 
in government, laying low while growing in relative 
popularity. 
 
"Unity" 
------- 
 
¶2. (C) The New Era party of Prime Minister Dombrovskis (15 of 
100 seats in Parliament), the Civic Union (6 MPs) and the 
Society for Alternative Politics (3 MPs) announced on 
November 19 that they would campaign on a joint electoral 
list in the 2010 elections under the banner "Unity", while 
forgoing a full party merger.  Unity leadership have told us 
that the coalition will campaign on a platform of 
responsible, transparent government and a firmly Atlanticist 
foreign policy.  Unfortunately for this new coalition, 
Unity's ambitions likely outweigh their prospects.  Of those 
declaring party preference in October polls (half of those 
polled), about 26% named one of the three component parties; 
however, of all those polled, only seven percent said they 
would definitely vote for a common list of the three parties 
and another seven percent said they would consider voting for 
a common list.  Clearly, if Unity wishes to form the next 
government, they will need allies. 
 
Looking East 
------------ 
 
¶3. (C) The hard-charging Christian fundamentalist Ainars 
Slesers abandoned any pretense of power-sharing when he 
shunted aside former Prime Minister Ivars Godmanis for full 
control of the Latvia's First Party/Latvia's Way (10 MPs) on 
November 14.  Slesers sees Latvia's future in a rebalance of 
relations with Russia and in attracting Russian investments, 
trade and tourism.  In addition to furthering his own 
economic interests, this stance is popular with his  city 
council allies, the largely-ethnic Russian left-wing 
coalition Harmony Center.  Slesers adopts a stern and 
uncompromising public persona, and while his partnership with 
ethnic Russians is anathema to Latvian nationalists, dire 
economic circumstances, the backing of Latvia's Lutheran, 
Catholic and Orthodox churches, and a mighty campaign war 
chest (Slesers possesses great personal wealth) will all 
assist him.  About seven percent of voters declaring a 
preference say they will vote for Slesers, and another 27 
percent (mostly ethnic Russians, Ukrainians and Belarussians) 
will support Harmony Center.  Slesers has now made public his 
desire to form a national government with Harmony Center 
support. 
 
Grizzled, Cranky and Ready to Lead 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Another gruff and "can-do" multi-millionaire, People's 
Party founder Andris Skele, formally re-assumed control of 
his party on November 21.  The party suffers from low 
popularity ratings and is facing a bleak future; Skele 
believes that only he can reverse it's downward spiral. 
Despite the fact that the party is the largest in the 
governing coalition (19 seats), Skele's strategy is to 
criticize the government from within while the campaign 
continues.  Skele promiss low taxes, microenterprise loans, 
a balanced budget, better public administration, and 
infrastructure investment, while criticizing the IMF and 
Scandinavian banks for inflicting hardship on Latvia.  Skele 
hectored his listeners for over an hour at a highly-scripted 
party congress, promising to clean up the party, with no 
mention of foreign policy other than a pledge to increase 
energy ties with "Russia, Scandinavia, Poland and Lithuania". 
 However, the current foreign minister, Maris Riekstins (who 
joined the party at the height of its fortunes several years 
back), promised no change in foreign policy under a People's 
Party-led government.  Chairperson of the party's 
parliamentary group, Vineta Muizniece privately told PolCouns 
that the People's Party would not align itself with Slesers 
and Harmony Center.  The People's Party, which remains well 
 
RIGA 00000564  002 OF 002 
 
 
organized in the Latvian countryside will need all Skele's 
skill and wealth to overcome a great deficit of public trust. 
Only some six percent of voters expressing a preference now 
say they would vote for the party, leading to speculation 
that Skele and company may not break the five-percent 
threshold for parliamentary representation. 
 
Under the Radar 
--------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Meanwhile, the mayor of the port of Ventspils, Aivars 
Lembergs continues to quietly generate support for the Greens 
and Farmers Union (17 MP's).  Among voters expressing a 
preference, 14 percent name the Greens and Farmers Union as 
their pick.  Green party co-chair Viesturs Silenieks 
privately told PolCouns that the party would deliver a 
positive, reassuring message to voters, and would not make 
waves as elections approached.  He was confident that the 
party would perform well, and that its constructive, 
pragmatic approach to economic development was becoming 
increasingly adopted by other European green parties. 
Silenieks would make no promises with regard to future 
government partners after elections, but noted that the 
party's largely rural constituency would be unhappy with an 
alliance with the largely urban, ethnic-Russian Harmony 
Center. 
 
¶6. (C) Comment: It does not now appear likely that Slesers, 
Skele and Lembergs, will form an open, common electoral 
front, or seek to bring down the government in advance of 
elections.  Nevertheless, all three of these "oligarchs" are 
currently conspicuously refraining from criticizing one 
another.  As Unity's Sarmite Elerte puts it:  "all three are 
selling variations of the same brand -- strong individual 
leadership."  Elerte could not say who would lead "Unity" as 
the standard-bearer, but a collective of like-minded women 
leaders:  New Era Chair Solvita Aboltina, Vaira Paegle (late 
of the People's Party), Sandra Kalniete of Civic Union, and 
Elerte herself offer a possible alternative to the "strong 
hand" brand.  Genuine coalition-building will likely take 
place amongst these four poles after, rather than prior to 
elections. 
GARBER