VZCZCXYZ0014
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHQT #1148/01 3341902
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301404Z NOV 09 ZDS
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0389
INFO RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0116
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO

UNCLAS QUITO 001148 
 
C O R R E C T E D   C O P Y - REMOVED ZENS FROM ROUTING INDICATORS 
 
SIPDIS 
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USTR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ETRD PREL EC AGR FAS EPET EMIN
SUBJECT: ATPDEA Still Key to Many Ecuadorian Industries and Jobs 
 
¶1.  (U)  Ecuador has benefitted substantially from the Andean Trade 
Preference Act (ATPA) program since its inception in 1991.   ATPA 
currently provides duty-free access to the U.S. market for 
approximately 5,600 Ecuadorian products.  According to GoE 
estimates, approximately 350,000 jobs are tied to ATPA exports. 
Although loss of ATPA privileges would considerably degrade some 
key industries, such as cut roses, it appears other industries, 
such as fresh mangoes, would retain duty free access through the 
General System of Preference (GSP) program or be able to reorient 
towards other foreign markets (pineapple).  This cable provides a 
brief overview of ATPA's impact on Ecuador's economy and key 
sectors it influences to inform the debate about renewal/extension. 
 
 
 
 
General Trade Overview 
 
------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (U)  As reported in the Fourth Report to Congress on the ATPA 
as Amended by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, 2008 
two-way trade between the United States and Ecuador totaled US 
$12.5 billion, resulting in a US $5.5 billion bilateral trade 
deficit for the United States.  The United States is Ecuador's 
largest export market, absorbing approximately 48 percent of 
Ecuador's US $18.5 billion in exports in 2008.  In 2008, Ecuadorian 
exports to the United States were valued at US $9 billion, up from 
US $6.1 billion in 2007, largely due to higher oil prices. Crude 
oil accounted for 81 percent of Ecuador's 2008 total (both ATPA and 
non ATPA) exports to the United States. 
 
 
 
¶3.   (U)  The United States is also Ecuador's top supplier of 
imports, providing 19 percent of its total imports in 2008. 
Ecuadorian imports of U.S. products in 2008 totaled US $3.5 
billion, up from US $2.9 billion in 2007.  Top categories for U.S. 
exports to Ecuador were machinery (24 percent of exports), 
petroleum products (15 percent), electrical machinery (10 percent), 
plastic (9 percent), and paper and paperboard (5 percent). 
 
 
 
ATPA Trade Overview 
 
---------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4.  (U) According to U.S. International Trade Commission 
statistics, Ecuadorian exports under ATPA  were a modest US $34.3 
million in 1993, the first year in which Ecuador was a program 
beneficiary.  Ecuador's ATPA exports grew to US $177 million in 
¶2002.  Imports under ATPA jumped to US $1.6 billion in 2003, the 
year following President Bush's renewal and expansion of ATPA with 
the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA). 
ATPDEA added new export products to the preference program, 
including petroleum, tuna and textiles and apparel which 
contributed substantially to the increase in Ecuador's ATPA 
benefits.  For the following discussion, ATPA refers to both ATPA 
and ATPDEA programs although different products qualify under each 
one. 
 
 
 
¶5.  (U)  In more recent years ATPA exports from Ecuador have 
continued to grow.  ATPA exports from Ecuador increased 43 percent 
between 2007 and 2008, from US $4.6 billion to US $6.6 billion, and 
represented 73 percent of Ecuador's total exports to the United 
States in 2008.  The increase resulted primarily from the 47 
percent increase in petroleum-related exports to US $6.2 billion, 
which accounted for 94 percent of ATPA entries from Ecuador in 
¶2008.   Non-petroleum-related exports under the ATPA from Ecuador 
fell 1 percent, from US $378 million in 2007 to US $373 million in 
¶2008. This included exports of cut flowers, the second largest 
export under the ATPA from Ecuador, which fell 7 percent to US $133 
million.  Other important exports under the ATPA from Ecuador in 
2008 were tuna (US $74 million), up 8 percent over 2007; 
vegetables, including frozen broccoli (US $43 million), up 22 
 
percent; vegetable and fruit preparations (US $28 million), up 22 
percent; and fruits, primarily fresh pineapples, fresh mangoes, and 
frozen fruits (US $27 million), down 13 percent. 
 
 
 
¶6.  (U)  Ecuador estimates that ATPA has generated 350,000 local 
jobs in an employed population of 6.15 million people (both rural 
and urban) meaning approximately 6.15 percent of employment in 
Ecuador is influenced by ATPA.  Anecdotal information suggests that 
the total number of ATPA related jobs has likely fallen in 2009 due 
to decreasing ATPA exports in response to the global economic 
downturn. 
 
 
 
Key ATPA Industries 
 
-------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶7.  (U)  Below are synopses of key Ecuadorian industries that 
benefit from ATPA.  Unless otherwise noted, values of ATPA exports 
are taken from the United States International Trade Commission 
(USITC).  Statistics on Ecuador's overall exports and other foreign 
markets are taken from Ecuador's Central Bank data. 
 
 
 
Industry 
ATPA Exports in 2008 
 
---------- 
--------------------------- 
 
1) Petroleum 
US $6.2 billion 
 
2) Flowers                                                       US 
$133.0 million 
 
3) Tuna 
US $83.0 million 
 
4) Broccoli 
US $20.9 million 
 
5) Plywood 
US $17.4 million 
 
6) Pineapple 
US $12.6 million 
 
7) Mangos 
US $11.5 million 
 
8) Textiles and Apparel                                     US 
$10.5 million 
 
9) Aluminum 
US $6.8 million 
 
 
 
 
 
Petroleum 
 
------------- 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  In 2008, Ecuador exported a total of 127.3 million 
barrels of oil,  62 percent of which were destined for the United 
States.  Other leading export markets were Peru (14 percent), Chile 
(13 percent), Panama (3.6 percent) and China (3.2 percent).  Oil 
remains Ecuador's largest export under ATPA.  In 2008, petroleum 
products accounted for US $6.2 billion of Ecuador's total US $6.6 
billion in ATPA exports. Petroleum exports under ATPA for 2009 have 
decreased, down to US $1.4 billion from January through August 
compared to US $4.6 billion in the same period in 2008.  Although 
 
oil extraction is concentrated in the rural northeast of Ecuador 
where steady employment is scarce, it provides relatively few jobs 
for unskilled laborers given that it is a capital intensive 
industry.  Without the ATPA program, Ecuadorian oil exports to the 
U.S. would face a US 5-10 cent per barrel tariff.  At current oil 
prices for Ecuadorian crude of around US $70 per barrel (Ecuador's 
Oriente 30 trades at a US $5 - 15 discount per barrel from the West 
Texas Intermediate price  due to high sulfur content), the 
prospective U.S. tariff is a mere 0.07 percent to 0.14 percent. 
Petroleum exports are not eligible for duty-free treatment under 
the GSP program. 
 
 
 
Flowers 
 
---------- 
 
 
 
¶9.  (U) ATPA has driven the Ecuadorian flower industry's rapid 
growth to one of the world's leading exporters.  Historically, the 
U.S. has been the major consumer of Ecuadorians flowers. From 
2006-2008, the U.S. accounted for 64 percent of Ecuador's flower 
exports.  Under ATPA, Ecuador's flower cultivation has grown from 
286 hectares in 1991 to 6,000 hectares in 2008. According to GOE 
statistics, Ecuador's total flower exports increased from US $34 
million in 1992 to US $633 million in 2008.  Despite these 
successes, the industry has recently fallen on hard times and is 
facing tight profit margins.  The U.S. imported US $133 million in 
Ecuadorian flowers under ATPA in 2008, 57 percent of which were 
roses.  This represented a noticeable decline from 2007 (US $143 
million) and 2006 (US $141 million).  Figures for January through 
August suggest a decline of 8.4 percent in 2009 from the same 
period in 2008.  According to Central Bank of Ecuador (CBE) 
year-on-end data for 2009, the U.S. accounts for 43 percent of 
Ecuador's rose exports, followed by Russia at 20 percent, Holland 
at 15 percent, and Italy at 3 percent. 
 
 
 
¶10.  (U)  Challenges to Ecuador's flower industry include 
increasing labor and transportation costs, and foreign competition 
(especially from Colombia, the world's largest flower exporter, and 
new players such as Kenya).  Ecuador's use of the U.S. dollar and 
an increase in the minimum wage in 2007 have made Ecuador less 
competitive by saddling it with the highest labor costs of any 
flower producing developing nation.  The monthly compensation 
package for a flower worker is over US $400.   An additional 
increase in the minimum wage, a Correa initiative, would force most 
farms to reduce their work force.  Industry analysts estimate that 
15,000 jobs have been lost this year and that 30 percent of farms 
are loss making, staying open only to avoid separation payments to 
their workforce if they were to close.  Ecuador's Social Security 
Administration estimates that the flower industry employs 115,000 
workers, although industry analysts put the number closer to 
80,000.  Flower production is concentrated in the mountainous 
provinces of Pichincha and Cotopaxi along the roads to Quito.  The 
majority of workers come from rural villages or small towns.  Sixty 
percent of flower workers are women.  Ecuador's rose exports are 
not eligible for duty-free treatment under the current GSP program. 
Elimination of ATPA would prompt a number of Ecuador's rose farms 
to close.  Ecuadorian growers have indicated that it  would be very 
difficult to transition to other flower varieties that are eligible 
for duty-free treatment under the GSP program, such as carnations, 
given Colombia's lower wage bill and established dominance in the 
market. 
 
 
 
Tuna 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶11.  (U)  Seafood exports (including crab and other crustaceans) 
are Ecuador's second largest overall (including non-ATPA covered 
fish) export to the U.S. after petroleum products. Ecuador's total 
world fish exports in 2008 were US $1 billion, with tuna accounting 
for 75 percent.  ATPA benefits "pouch tuna" and packaged bulk tuna 
exports, which are Ecuador's third largest export to the U.S. under 
 
ATPA after petroleum and flowers.  Pouch tuna is a crucial export 
product for the overall competitiveness of the Ecuadorian tuna 
industry because it has the highest value-added of all tuna 
exported by Ecuador and thus helps determine the prices of other 
qualities of tuna.  In 2008, Ecuador exported US $83 million worth 
of pouch tuna under ATPA. However, in the first half of 2009, 
Ecuador's tuna exports to the U.S. decreased precipitously to US 
$40.4 million (January through August), versus US $72 million for 
the same period in 2008.  The largest providers of pouch tuna to 
the United States are Thailand and the Philippines, which together 
hold about 63 percent of the U.S. pouch tuna market. 
 
 
 
¶12.  (U)  Employment in the tuna industry is concentrated in the 
coastal regions, with 60 percent of the tuna industry located in 
Manta, 25 percent in Posorja, and the remainder in Guayaquil.  The 
tuna sector provides 31,000 direct and 58,000 indirect jobs.  The 
Manta Chamber of Commerce estimates that approximately 90 percent 
of the Manta economy depends upon industrial and small scale 
fishing. Tuna processing is labor intensive as machines are not 
practical for skinning and processing fish.  The vulnerability of 
employees is high with few substitute jobs available for tuna 
workers in an industry downturn. The majority of factory workers 
are women.  Pouch tuna exports from Ecuador would not be eligible 
to enter the United States duty-free under the GSP program. 
 
 
 
Broccoli 
 
---------- 
 
 
 
¶13.  (U)  The U.S. is the largest consumer of Ecuadorian broccoli. 
In 2008, the U.S. imported US $20.9 million in Ecuadorian broccoli 
under ATPA, down from US $22.4 million in 2007.  However, 
year-to-date ATPA exports for 2009 of US $14.7 million (versus US 
$13.4 million in 2008) indicate Ecuadorian broccoli exports under 
ATPA may be rebounding.  According to Central Bank statistics, 
total Ecuadorian exports of broccoli were US $56.9 million in 2008, 
up from US $38.9 million in 2005.  CBE statistics indicate that 
exports to the United States under ATPA represented about 37 
percent of Ecuador's total broccoli exports.  If ATPA preferences 
were eliminated, exports of frozen broccoli to the United States 
would face an ad-valorem tariff of 14.9 percent.  Mexico and 
Guatemala are seen as potential substitute suppliers to the U.S. 
The U.S. market is particularly important for Ecuadorian producers 
as it absorbs broccoli stalks which are not in high demand in other 
foreign markets. 
 
 
 
¶14.  (U)  Currently Ecuador has 3,500 hectares under broccoli 
cultivation, with 80 percent of farms located in the mountainous 
Cotopaxi province near Quito.  Value added is contributed by the 
individual quick frozen process.  Broccoli is exported as 
"conventionally grown" as well as "organic" in packages containing 
florets with stalks included, florets pieces with stalk cubes, or 
stalks alone.  The sector employs 2,000 farm workers with an 
additional 2,000 full-time jobs in processing and 4,000 indirect 
jobs in transportation and services.  Broccoli exports from Ecuador 
are not currently eligible for duty-free treatment under the GSP 
program. 
 
 
 
Plywood 
 
------------ 
 
 
 
¶15.  (U) Ecuador is the ninth largest supplier of plywood to the 
U.S. market, far behind leaders China, Canada, Russia and Brazil. 
Industry contacts indicate that the U.S. remains the major export 
market for Ecuadorian plywood at 75 percent of total exports. Other 
consumers include Mexico (15 percent), Venezuela (5 percent) and 
Colombia (3 percent).  Ecuador's plywood ATPA exports totaled US 
$17.4 million in 2008, up from US $15 million in 2007.  January 
through August 2009, exports of Ecuadorian plywood entering the 
 
United States under ATPA were down 1.5 percent versus the same 
period in 2008.  Ecuador's five main plywood companies produce 
about 144,000 cubic meters yearly with a value of US $24 million. 
Ecuador's plywood industry is mainly concentrated in Esmeraldas 
Province (an area of elevated narcotics activity along Ecuador's 
northern border) and employs about 2,000 unskilled workers directly 
and 8,000 indirectly.  Local plywood production has been negatively 
affected by labor and tax reforms implemented by the GOE, which 
according to industry players have reduced previous profit margins 
of 50 percent to 7 - 10 percent.  The GOE's proposed tax reform and 
a possible increase in minimum wage could reduce profitability 
further.  Ecuador's exports of plywood are eligible for duty-free 
treatment under the GSP program. 
 
 
 
Pineapple 
 
------------ 
 
 
 
¶16.  (U)  The United States is the leading export market for 
Ecuadorian pineapple, accounting for 33 percent of Ecuadorian 
pineapple exports in 2008.  The majority of Ecuadorian pineapple 
(98 percent) enters under ATPA. Spain is the second largest 
importer of Ecuadorian pineapple at 19 percent of exports, followed 
by Belgium at 15 percent.  Total Ecuadorian exports of pineapples 
amounted to US $36.6 million in 2008, up from US $30.9 million in 
¶2005. Ecuador's ATPA exports continue to grow. ATPA 2008 pineapple 
exports totaled US $12.6 million, up from US $11.4 million in 2007. 
The positive trend appears to be continuing in 2009 with ATPA 
exports January through August totaling US $8.9 million compared to 
US $6.6 million in 2008. 
 
 
 
¶17.  (U)  The elimination of ATPA benefits would result in a modest 
tariff of 1.1 cents/Kg which, although it would reduce profits, 
would not likely destroy Ecuador's pineapple industry.  Costa Rica 
and Honduras are potential substitute suppliers to the U.S. if ATPA 
is terminated.   Ecuador has 3,300 hectares of pineapple, located 
mainly in the central, landlocked provinces of Los Rios and Santo 
Domingo de Los Tsachilas.  Plantations farming the super sweet 
variety pineapples marketed to the U.S. employ 1.02 persons per 
hectare.  Analysts estimate the pineapple sector provides 
approximately 3,366 direct farming jobs, 26,500 temporary jobs in 
packaging and processing and 5,900 indirect jobs in services, 
management, and transportation.  Ecuador's pineapple exports are 
eligible for duty-free entry into the United States under the GSP 
program. Additionally, high demand for pineapple on the world 
market means the Ecuadorian industry would likely survive the loss 
of ATPA privileges. 
 
 
 
Mangos 
 
----------- 
 
 
 
¶18.  (U)  The United States is the leading export market for 
Ecuadorian fresh mangos with 75 percent of Ecuadorian mangos 
entering under ATPA.  Some processed mango products do not qualify 
under ATPA.  In 2008, ATPA exports of mangos from Ecuador totaled 
US $11.5 million, down from US $15.6 million in 2007.  Figures for 
January through August 2009 indicate mango exports have decreased 
by 37 percent versus the same period in 2008.  Ecuador's overall 
export of mangoes was US $15.8 million in 2008, down from US $17.8 
million in 2005.  The United States accounts for about 73 percent 
of Ecuador's total mango exports.  The second largest importer of 
Ecuadorian mangos is Canada (9 percent) followed by Colombia (6 
percent). 
 
 
 
¶19.  (U)  Currently, Ecuador has 7,000 hectares of mango under 
cultivation, up from 5,500 hectares in 2005.  Farms are located 
mainly in the coastal province of Guayas (90 percent) and central 
province of Los Rios (10 percent).  Products include fresh mangos, 
mango puree, individual quick frozen (IQF) cubes, and dried mango. 
 
Fresh mangos are exported as conventionally grown or organic. 
Ecuador has five hydrothermal treatment plants that ensure the 
elimination of fruit flies and allow mangos to meet phytosanitary 
regulations. This procedure shortens shelf life and, analysts say, 
would complicate transport to more distant markets, like Europe. 
Mango cultivation employs three workers per hectare and estimates 
are that the sector provides 21,000 direct farming jobs, 3,000 
temporary jobs in processing and packaging, and 7,200 indirect jobs 
in services, management, fertilizing, and transportation.  Mangos 
from Ecuador would be eligible for duty-free treatment under the 
GSP program if ATPA ended.  Ecuador's competitors for the U.S. 
mango market include Mexico, which has a similar growing season and 
duty-free status under NAFTA, Peru and Brazil. 
 
 
 
Textiles and Apparel 
 
--------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶20.  (U)  In 2008, Ecuador exported US $10.5 million in yarn, 
thread, cloths, and finished clothing to the United States under 
ATPA, accounting for approximately 85 percent of total textile 
exports to the United States from Ecuador.  The United States is 
one of Ecuador's major textile consumers, accounting for 
approximately eight percent of Ecuador's total textile exports in 
¶2008.  Other top export markets are Colombia (US $42 million in 
2008) and Peru (US $8 million).  Local producers have commented 
that uncertainty about the continuation of ATPA has forced them to 
reduce inventories and withhold investment.  Ecuadorian ATPA 
textile exports for January through August 2009 were US $4.7 
million, down from US $6.8 million in the same period in 2008. 
 
 
 
¶21.  (U)  Textile producers estimate the sector provides 28,000 
direct jobs and 112,000 indirect jobs.  Rough estimates from 
industry studies indicate that textile exports to the U.S. under 
ATPA provide 2,000 of the sector's direct hire jobs and 
approximately 8,000 of the indirect jobs.  More difficult to assess 
is the sizeable number of Ecuadorian jobs tied to the production of 
thread, yarn and cloth that are exported to Colombia and Peru for 
inclusion in finished products exported from those countries to the 
United States under ATPA.  Elimination of ATPA or removal of 
Ecuador from ATPA would pose significant problems for the textile 
and apparel sectors in Colombia and Peru, which are able to 
"accumulate" Ecuadorian inputs toward the 35% local origin rule 
under ATPA.   Local producers estimate that in 2008, US $7.5 
million worth of Ecuadorian textiles exported to Peru and Colombia 
were used as inputs for clothing which later entered the United 
States under ATPA.   Ecuador's ATPA textile and apparel production 
also directly benefits U.S. cotton growers; all of the sector's 
cotton imports, valued at US $19.5 million in 2008, come from the 
United States.  Ecuador's textile production is primarily 
concentrated in urban areas such as Quito, Guayaquil, Cuenca, 
Ambato, Otavalo and Atuntaqui, with participation by indigenous 
groups in these last two locations.  Ecuador's textile and apparel 
exports would not be eligible for duty-free treatment under the GSP 
program. 
 
 
 
Aluminum 
 
------------- 
 
 
 
¶22.  (U)  Ecuador's ATPA exports of aluminum "profiles" (aluminum 
shaped and angled for construction and decoration purposes) to the 
U.S. have been hit hard by the global crisis.  ATPA exempts 
Ecuadorian aluminum from a 5 percent import tariff.  Local 
manufacturers have indicated that the loss of ATPA benefits could 
surrender Ecuador's U.S. market share to China and Canada. 
However, aluminum profiles could also enter the United States 
duty-free under the GSP program. 
 
 
 
¶23.  (U)  Ecuador's ATPA aluminum profile exports increased 
 
drastically during the housing boom in the U.S. from US $6.7 
million in 2004 to a peak of US $21.9 million in 2006.  The U.S. 
subprime mortgage crisis and a decline in international aluminum 
prices reduced ATPA exports to US $10.7 million in 2007 and US $6.8 
million in 2008.  ATPA exports for 2009 continue the downward trend 
with exports January through August totaling US $2.9 million versus 
US $4.7 million in 2008.  Aluminum profile production is labor 
intensive. Ecuador's sole aluminum profile exporter to the U.S., 
which hired 700 employees during the boom years of 2003-2006, has 
laid off 200 employees in the past two years due to decreased 
demand. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------------ 
 
 
 
¶24.  (SBU)  ATPA has been pivotal in providing over 350,000 
Ecuadorians with jobs and the opportunity to escape poverty and/or 
the allure of illicit activities.  The duty-free access provided by 
ATPA has been crucial in enabling certain covered products from 
Ecuador to compete in the U.S. marketplace, given their very low 
profit margins.  ATPA has produced concrete economic gains in 
Ecuador but, without a sustained program, it will be difficult to 
maintain, let alone expand, on these gains.  Recent GoE policy 
announcements on compulsory licensing and possible termination of 
bilateral investment treaties, including with the United States, 
have raised concerns about the Ecuadorian government's intentions 
regarding our bilateral commercial relations, but support of and 
appreciation for the ATPA among the Ecuadorian population remains 
very high.  Should ATPA be terminated or Ecuador be exempted from 
the program, we would lose an important, positive element in our 
relationship with the Ecuadorian people. 
HODGES