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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0029
INFO EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0002
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0001
RUEHCP/AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN 0001
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PORT OF SPAIN 000460 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL KGHG KSUM EINT TD
SUBJECT: CLIMATE CHANGE TO HEADLINE COMMONWEALTH MEETING 
 
PORT OF SP 00000460  001.3 OF 003 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY:  Trinidad and Tobago hosts the 21st biennial 
Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) November 27-29 in 
Port of Spain, with several related forums beginning as early as 
November 20. Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Phillip are to pay a 
state visit just before the event, and the Queen, as head of the 
Commonwealth of Nations, will deliver the keynote address at the 
opening ceremony to be attended by some fifty heads of state, 
foreign ministers, and other invited guests. 
 
 
 
¶2.  Climate change is expected to dominate discussions, with the 
Danish Prime Minister confirmed to attend along with UNSYG Ban Ki 
Moon and French President Sarkozy.  Spanish President Zapatero may 
also attend, and Brazilian President Lula has been invited but has 
not confirmed.  Prime Minister Manning has implored citizens to be 
patient with any disruptions caused by CHOGM and he and his Cabinet 
have been asserting that economic and political benefits will 
accrue to Trinidad due to its hosting the event.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
PRELUDE TO COPENHAGEN 
 
--------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3.  The theme of CHOGM 2009 is "Partnering for a more Equitable and 
Sustainable Future," and climate change is expected to be high on 
the agenda.  Deputy British High Commissioner Geoff Patton told us 
November 18 that Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen has 
confirmed his participation in a climate change retreat scheduled 
for November 27, as a prelude to the United Nations Climate Change 
Conference taking place in Copenhagen December 7-18.  United 
Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon's attendance is seen as 
important to this year's CHOGM, Patton said, because adding his 
voice to a consensus of the 53 Commonwealth leaders would represent 
"the rest of the world's population."  Patton said that while a 
CHOGM 2009 general statement has already been circulated and is 
mostly ironed out, it is very possible that a separate joint 
statement on climate change will also be released.  Separately, one 
resident High Commissioner told us last week that the GOTT was 
resisting such a separate statement. 
 
 
 
GUESS WHO'S COMING TO DINNER 
 
---------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4.  A state visit by Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Phillip is to 
take place November 26 -- her Majesty's third such visit to 
Trinidad and Tobago -- and the Queen, as titular head of the 
Commonwealth of Nations, will offer the keynote address at the 
opening session for heads of government on Friday, November 27. 
Patton confirmed November 18 that British Prime Minister Gordon 
Brown will attend some of the leaders' events, but will likely be 
on the ground for no more than 50 hours.  Patton also confirmed 
that French President Nicolas Sarkozy accepted an invitation to 
attend some of the events, noting that the French Embassy, 
surprised by the late invitation and acceptance, was scrambling to 
obtain credentials since France is not a member of the Commonwealth 
and had not been part of the CHOGM planning process.  Prime 
Minister Manning told the nation in a televised address November 18 
that Sarkozy, Rasmussen and Ban Ki Moon would attend CHOGM as 
special guests, and his special assistant told the Charge on 
November 14 that Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had 
also been invited but had not confirmed.  A Commonwealth high 
commissioner told Charge November 19 that Spanish President 
Zapatero is also likely to attend, which the GOTT hopes will 
encourage Lula's participation.  We're told the president of China 
sent his regrets. 
 
PORT OF SP 00000460  002.3 OF 003 
 
 
SECURITY IN PLACE 
 
----------------- 
 
 
 
¶5.  Unlike the wide security perimeter put in place for the April 
Summit of the Americas that closed a large swath of downtown Port 
of Spain and required passes for residents and those with business 
within the zone, CHOGM security will be focused on event venues and 
specific movements, reducing the number of street closures and, 
according to security operations managers, minimizing public 
disruptions.  Views of security arrangements differ among our 
contacts, with some believing they are adequate and others stating 
chaos lurks below the placid surface. 
 
 
 
EVENTS 
 
------ 
 
 
 
¶6.  A Commonwealth Ministers Action Committee (CMAC) is planned for 
Wednesday, November 25, followed by a foreign ministers meeting on 
Wednesday and Thursday, November 25-26.  Foreign ministers are 
expected to discuss human rights issues, and in particular, the 
plight of internal refugees in Sri Lanka and the recent suspension 
of Fiji from the Commonwealth after military leaders there failed 
to announce a timeline for democratic elections.  After the 
official opening session and heads of government plenary on Friday, 
November 27, three heads of government retreats are planned for 
Friday and Saturday, November 27-28, covering youth, 
sustainability, and climate change.  We're told the climate change 
retreat will occur on November 27 to accommodate President 
Sarkozy's schedule.  Rwanda's application to join the Commonwealth 
will also be considered, as well as other pending membership 
actions. 
 
 
 
¶7.  Three public forums will also be held during CHOGM.  The 
Commonwealth Youth Forum begins November 20 and is designed to 
teach young people about the Commonwealth's values and to provide 
youth a platform from which they may submit statements to the CHOGM 
delegations and secretariat. The People's Forum will meet November 
22-26 to bring together civil society actors on eight themes, 
including human rights, environment and climate change, health and 
HIV/AIDS, democracy and governance, and innovation.  Some 800 
participants are expected for the Business Forum November 23-26 
including the prime ministers of Trinidad and Tobago and Barbados, 
and Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz.  Themes of the 
business forum include managing climate change, considering new 
global financial infrastructures, and developing equitable trading 
practices. 
 
 
 
PROTESTS 
 
-------- 
 
 
 
¶8.  Unions and civil society actors in Trinidad and Tobago have 
announced demonstrations and work stoppages during a five-day 
period leading up to CHOGM, beginning with a police-sanctioned 
rally in Port of Spain planned for Sunday, November 21.  These 
groups intend to use the public spotlight to publicize domestic 
issues of contention, such as crime, rising unemployment, and a 
perceived lack of good governance.  Expectations are that these 
protests will be small and non-disruptive. 
 
 
 
PULLING IT TOGETHER, AT THE LAST MINUTE 
 
--------------------------------------- 
 
PORT OF SP 00000460  003.3 OF 003 
 
 
¶9.  In somewhat typical fashion for Trinidad and Tobago, CHOGM 
planning seems to be falling into place at the last minute, but not 
without fits and starts.  The venue for the opening ceremony, 
Trinidad's brand new National Academy for the Performing Arts 
(NAPA), is still under construction (the government's private 
assurances are that "the part we need will be done").  Executives 
of the Trinidad and Tobago Chamber of Industry and Commerce (TTIC) 
told us in mid-October that ticket sales for the Business Forum 
were not selling as briskly as hoped, but that they were confident 
the event would be successful.  Perhaps in order to improve its 
image with Commonwealth members and minimize distracting bilateral 
discussions, the GOTT hastily chartered a jet in October to return 
a group of African deportees to their respective homelands, and 
opened an immigration detention center November 11 to house others 
that had been in legal limbo. 
 
 
 
¶10.  A diplomat close to the CHOGM planning process told us the 
meeting will go off mostly as expected, but efforts in the week 
before the meeting were a "mad scramble."  The diplomat described 
the GOTT-appointed secretariat as dysfunctional and dictatorial, 
tabling "crazy ideas" that the other Commonwealth member 
representatives needed to dismiss or tone down.  In what was 
described as a bout of hubris, we were told the Prime Minister 
announced this week that, instead of the long-agreed to plan to 
have him greet the heads of government at the opening ceremony in 
two or three groups bussed to the event, he now preferred to have 
each of the 50 leaders arrive by individual motorcade, "turning a 
30 minute arrival program into a two-hour event," our contact said, 
and creating a much larger carbon footprint completely at odds with 
the planned discussions on climate change. 
 
 
 
COMMENT: SMALL ISLAND, BIG AMBITION 
 
----------------------------------- 
 
 
 
11:  COMMENT:  In an address to the nation November 18, Prime 
Minister Manning implored citizens to welcome CHOGM participants 
and be patient with any disruptions.  In an echo of his 
justification for hosting the Summit of the Americas, he 
prophesized that having the world's eyes focused on T&T for CHOGM 
would lure tourists and investors here.  Manning also appears to be 
vying for credentials as a regional, if not worldwide, player, by 
focusing on climate change and inviting notables in the arena such 
as Rasmussen, Sarkozy, Lula and the UNSYG for those talks.  In his 
televised address, Manning stated that Trinidad and Tobago has been 
"at the center of almost frenzied activity among leading nations 
from both the developed and developing world...in preparation for 
the Copenhagen meeting,"  adding that Port of Spain has become the 
final and most important step in the Copenhagen process. 
KUSNITZ