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PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHFR #1600/01 3341656
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 301656Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7644
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001600 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/C 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KCOR CF FR
SUBJECT: CONGO-B'S PARIS-BASED "GOVERNMENT IN EXILE" 
 
Classified By: Andrew Young, Political Counselor, reason 1.4 (b and d). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Self-styled Prime Minister of the 
Government in Exile of the Republic of Congo, Tony Gilbert 
Moudilou, insisted that President Sassou Nguesso Nguesso "has 
to go."  Moudilou asserted that Sassou Nguesso is physically 
and mentally ill, and that the President's goal is to pave 
the way for his son's succession, further degrading the 
country's democracy.  Moudilou insists that the government 
needs to engage in an open dialog with all major opposition 
figures, even as he promotes his own "administration." 
Moudilou wants U.S. help and claims to be demanding that 
France stop supporting Sassou Nguesso.  END SUMMARY. 
 
SASSOU NGUESSO IS THE PROBLEM 
----------------------------- 
¶2.  (C) After insisting on a meeting with the Embassy, 
self-described Prime Minister of the Government in Exile of 
the Republic of Congo, Tony Gilbert Moudilou, who was 
accompanied by his "Secretary General," Eric Patrick Mampouy, 
told Africa Watcher on November 4 that President Sassou 
Nguesso is "destroying" the Republic of Congo, both 
politically and economically and "has to go."  Moudilou 
asserted that only five percent of the population voted in 
the July 2009 Presidential elections, after the main 
opposition parties boycotted.  There is no independent 
legislative branch because Sassou Nguesso essentially 
appointed all the deputies.  According to Moudilou, most of 
the serious opposition has been forced into exile and cannot 
return to the ROC without facing arrest or assassination. 
The opposition that remains in the country is granted no 
political space, and cannot freely move about the country. 
Political rallies are not allowed. 
 
¶3.  (C) Sassou Nguesso has "manufactured" security threats to 
his administration in order to create the pretext for his 
overwhelming internal security apparatus, and now is planning 
to change the constitution to allow him to pursue another 
presidential mandate or some other manipulation, Moudilou 
asserted.  Much of the President's focus is now on assuring 
that his son can succeed him.  At the same time, Sassou 
Nguesso rules by fiat, and hasn't held a routine cabinet 
meeting (conseil des ministres) in more than two years. 
 
¶4.  (C) Economically, in Moudilou's assessment, the ROC is 
becoming poorer, while the ruling elite are grabbing all the 
country's wealth for themselves.  The corruption in the 
government is not even subtle.  He alleged that the GROC has 
poor budget execution, cannot meet its World Bank and IMF 
conditionality, and therefore is not making progress on debt 
reduction.  There is no public investment by the government, 
as demonstrated by the country's deteriorating 
infrastructure.  Moudilou claimed that the national 
hospital's elevator does not work and its toilets don't 
flush. 
 
SASSOU NGUESSO'S POOR PHYSICAL AND MENTAL HEALTH 
---------------------------------------- 
¶5.  (C) Sassou Nguesso can longer portray himself as a strong 
and dynamic leader, because his health is failing and his 
poor decision-making is clear to everyone, according to 
Moudilou, who claimed that Sassou Nguesso is afflicted with 
prostate cancer and suffers from a deep depression brought on 
by the recent deaths of his daughter and of Gabonese 
President Omar Bongo.  As a result, Sassou Nguesso no longer 
likes to travel and is not up to the task of being an 
international statesman.  According to Moudilou, even Sassou 
Nguesso's close advisors and the military leadership are 
disillusioned by "their president's" failing leadership. 
 
¶6.  (C) Moudilou believes that Sassou Nguesso understands 
that the situation in ROC is not sustainable and that the 
government needs to reach out to the opposition.  Moudilou 
claims that he has been contacted by highly placed advisors 
to Sassou Nguesso with requests for private meetings. 
Moudilou stated that he refused these offers and is sticking 
to his group's request that the government hold an open 
roundtable dialog with all the main opposition parties.  He 
explained that he is reluctant to meet privately with GOROC 
officials or emissaries out of concern of an assassination 
attempt, or, in keeping his head, that he will be perceived 
as being co-opted by Sassou Nguesso. 
 
WANTS U.S. "HELP" 
---------------- 
¶7.  (C) Moudilou stated numerous times that he and his group 
need U.S. assistance, but was not forthcoming in identifying 
what type of help he was hoping for, though it seems that 
direct financial payments are part of his wish list.  Paris 
Africa Watcher explained that the U.S. typically does not 
 
PARIS 00001600  002 OF 002 
 
 
fund political parties or exile groups, and that he should 
attempt to engage with our embassy in Brazzaville should he 
have specific ideas for enhancing the ROC's civil society. 
Moudilou noted that the most important thing is for foreign 
powers to understand the dire state of his country and not 
help "prop-up" Sassou Nguesso.  This was the message Moudilou 
claimed he is also delivering to France, adding that France 
should help Sassou Nguesso leave.  In the meantime, Moudilou 
will continue to hold his own "conseil des ministres" 
meetings in Paris and share the resulting policies of "his 
government." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶8.  (C) We have no gauge of Moudilou's credibility, nor of 
the validity of his fears of persecution that preclude him 
from pursuing his opposition credentials in Brazzaville. 
However, in a city full of African diaspora and opposition 
leaders, Moudilou and Mampouya appear very unwilling to dirty 
their hands with the real rough and tumble necessary to make 
political headway against a talented and entrenched strongman 
like Sassou Nguesso.  We will see what they have to say in 
the future, particularly if some momentum towards a new 
political dialog is realized.  Sassou Nguesso has long been 
close to France, but this should be a good time for ROC's 
opposition leaders to cultivate better relations with the 
GOF, particularly if Sassou Nguesso is indeed trying to 
manipulate the ROC's constitution and move towards a 
hereditary succession.  Given Sarkozy's public statements in 
favor of a more open and rational Africa policy, such moves 
by Sassou Nguesso will at a minimum likely provoke new 
Mauritania/Niger-style heartburn at the Elysee.  That is, 
France's "old ways" particularly with an eye towards security 
and stability in Francophone Africa are widely viewed as 
still trumping any strong stance against anti-democratic 
behavior. 
RIVKIN