VZCZCXRO4973
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHOU #1048/01 3251016
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 211016Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY OUAGADOUGOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5811
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHRY/AMEMBASSY CONAKRY 0065
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0724
RUEHDS/USMISSION USAU ADDIS ABABA 0003

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OUAGADOUGOU 001048 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12928: DECL: 11/18/2014 
TAGS: PREL PGOV GV UV
SUBJ: GUINEA - A NEGOTIATING DEBACLE IN OUAGADOUGOU 
 
Classified by Charge d'Affaires Dennis Hankins for reasons 1.4 (b and 
d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  The second round on Guinean talks in Ouagadougou 
ended as a public relations fiasco for the Burkinabe with the CNDD 
claiming victory.  The mediation is trying to downplay the 
significance of its seven point "non-paper" meant to stimulate debate 
but, according to the Burkinabe, inappropriately and inaccurately 
publicized by the two parties as a formal mediation proposal.  The 
Burkinabe recognize that the details of the Head of State and senior 
leadership of any transition governments remain key to any solution 
with the two sides, for now, still diametrically opposed relative to 
the role of Dadis.  Lacking leverage to impose a solution, Compaore 
can only wait for one or both of the two sides to give him some 
leeway to work with -- he may walk away from the process.  The 
Burkinabe worry that international pressure tends more to harden 
Dadis' position than to force him out.  End Summary 
 
¶2.  (C) Not Meant As A Mediation Proposal:  Charge spoke morning of 
November 21 with MFA Cabinet Director Vincent Zakane concerning the 
second round of Burkinabe-sponsored talks on Guinea held November 18 
- 21 in Ouagadougou.  A clearly frustrated Zakane told Charge that 
neither the CNDD nor the Forces Vives had stuck to the intent of the 
meeting.  Zakane explained that in this round, Compaore had only 
meant to present a seven-point "non-paper" that highlighted areas on 
convergence and disagreement between the position papers he had 
previously received from the two sides.  Stressing that the paper was 
cleared by the UN and AU before being presented, Zakane said the 
paper included a section on transition modalities that was meant to 
serve as a discussion point - not as a mediation proposal.  Zakane 
acknowledged that the point followed that reported in the press -- a 
Transition Government headed by Dadis as President with the Prime 
Minister coming from the Forces Vives and with the condition that the 
two leaders would have to resign four months before any elections 
should they want to present themselves as a presidential candidate. 
Zakane complained that neither side "played the game" of using the 
"non-paper" as a basis of discussion where both were to have come 
back with what was acceptable and what was unacceptable to them. 
Instead, Zakane said the CNDD was the first to break trust by 
releasing the paper as "the mediation proposal" that they would 
accept.  The Forces Vives followed suit condemning the mediation for 
a one-sided "proposal" that ignored their fundamental interests. 
 
¶3.  (C) Mutually Exclusive Positions:  Zakane stressed that Compaore 
is still faced with mutually exclusive positions on the fundamental 
issue in the crisis -- the future role of Dadis.  "The CNDD refuses 
to discuss any option that excludes Dadis and the Force Vives refuse 
any option that includes him," said Zakane, who had seen the 
"non-paper" as a way to start discussing some concrete modalities 
that might generate enough movement to eventually find a solution to 
address this most important issue.  Since "the mediation has no 
mechanism to force Dadis out," Zakane argued they were forced to 
consider options that might include him. 
 
¶4.  (C) Next Steps: Zakane told Charge that no third round of talks 
is currently planned.  In principle, the two sides are supposed to 
get back to Compaore with their formal comments on the non-paper but, 
Zakane noted, "the CNDD has already accepted it 100% and the Forces 
Vives have rejected it out of hand."  Their public statements, Zakane 
said, "makes the mediator's task much more difficult."  The Burkinabe 
will continue to engage the two sides to come back with substantive 
comments, but Zakane note that, "If they leave things the may they 
are, we may have to abandon our efforts and have the international 
community again assume its responsibilities."  Zakane suggested the 
mediation may consider presenting a completely different formula. 
 
¶5.  (C) Is International Pressure Counterproductive?  Zakane told 
Charge they are finding Dadis' position becoming tougher in response 
to international pressure.  "The sanctions and, particularly, the 
threat of the International Criminal Court make him fearful and more 
and more determined to hold onto power as the only way to protect 
himself," Zakane opined. 
 
¶6.  (C) Comment:  At minimum, the Burkinabe poorly drafted their 
"non-paper" in such a way that it could be used by the CNDD as 
support for their position.  More likely, the paper accurately 
reflected the best Compaore thought he could achieve -- even though 
that leads to short term and, almost certainly, long term legitimacy 
for Dadis.  Charge told Zakane that is seems difficult to walk back 
the positions stated in the "non-paper" now that it is public but 
that, pending official reaction from Washington, what was in the 
paper did not seem to offer any real confidence-building measures for 
the Forces Vives that could lead to an acceptable resolution of the 
Guinean crisis.  Our sense is that Zakane and the Burkinabe had 
received multiple messages of concern from international partners; 
hence, their desire to disassociate themselves from the paper they 
presented.  Compaore might very well abandon his efforts since he 
sees no way of getting Dadis out and is only opening himself up for 
criticism by accepting options that keep Dadis in.  End Comment 
 
OUAGADOUGO 00001048  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7.  (U) Conakry Minimize Considered. 
 
HANKINS